Delegates

They're not calling it yet, but it seems clear from the exit polls (Clinton wins 55 percent of white men, for example) that Clinton will prevail. Less clear is the shape of the delegate count. Obama's managed to carry Philadelphia and the Philly suburbs which, thanks to the apportionment rules, are where the bulk of the delegates come from.

Comments

Matthews is shitting all over Mark Penn. It's hilarious.

"I think he's an Iraq War supporter based on his thinking. Just a guess."

Posted by 55 | April 22, 2008 8:30 PM

CNN has white men splitting 53/46 in Clinton's favor, closer than in Ohio. And Obama is carrying a higher percentage of African-Americans than in Ohio as well.

Posted by BryklynLibrul | April 22, 2008 8:33 PM

My prediction: Clinton nets 6 delegates from tonight.

Posted by Andy | April 22, 2008 8:34 PM

If that Philly suburbs figure is right, it's a very good night. I think that means he won PA-07, PA-13, probably PA-08, and maybe even PA-15.

However, the super-low number in West PA is scary. At 37%, assuming Pittsburgh itself is 50-50, it means he may have lost some districts by the magic 70-30 margin.

Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot | April 22, 2008 8:38 PM

MSNBC now saying too "early" too call, with a Clinton lead.

Posted by 55 | April 22, 2008 8:38 PM

I'm not too sharp on the PA layout, but what exactly is the Northeast area? Wouldn't Philly and the 'burbs cover a big chunk of that?

Posted by daveNYC | April 22, 2008 8:45 PM

Someone with a better knowledge of stats than me, can you please explain why it's wrong to simply multiply out these regional figures to arrive at the approximate total vote percentage? I came up with 47.92% Obama, 51.62% Clinton. I know exit polls are unreliable and all that, but it can't be as easy as that can it?

Posted by randomkid | April 22, 2008 8:45 PM

Where did you get the Philly suburb number? The NY Times page says that Montgomery County - Philly suburb which just switched red to blue - won't have its numbers until 10:00 p.m. (EDT). It may be a while.

Posted by Judy | April 22, 2008 8:48 PM

I'm not too sharp on the PA layout, but what exactly is the Northeast area? Wouldn't Philly and the 'burbs cover a big chunk of that?

Philadelphia is in the Southeast corner of PA. The Northeast is Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, etc. I would guess it includes Allentown and Bethlehem, too.

Posted by MG | April 22, 2008 8:51 PM

If you break down the %s its 47.5 to 51.5 for Clinton- a four point victory- throw in some error and its still a good deal less than ten

Posted by Peter f | April 22, 2008 8:51 PM

They called it for Hillary.

Posted by 55 | April 22, 2008 8:52 PM