Dual Track

Another thought on the trouble for John McCain posed by polls showing 80+ percent of people thinking the country's on the wrong track is that, of course, McCain desperately needs the support of the 15-25 percent of dead-enders who think Bush is a good president. And it's just very difficult to assemble a political coalition that's deeply divided on an issue like that. It's a bit like John Kerry trying to put together a coalition where most of his voters were against the Iraq War, without actually running an anti-war campaign.

In other words, even if McCain does come up with a better way of separating himself from Bush than selling himself as the candidate of Ted Williams and an anonymous rock star, there's still bound to be an irreducibly pro-Bush element at the very heart of his political coalition.

Comments

Matthew, you continue to ignore McCain's appeal to independent voters. They've always liked him and they've always made a distinction between himself and Bush. You always underestimate this advantage of his.

At this point, he need not even court the Bush dead-enders because where else are they going to go? The presence of a real liberal like Obama and the mere sound of Hilldawg's voice will solidify that base for him in the general.

He's already triangulated the independents and moderates for years, and has become an expert ar it. Many have bought into him and even more would consider him as a sound alternative.

I know you want to believe or even construct a new meme on this subject, but it's just not the way it is at the moment. McCain's a strong candidate which I do not think Hillary can beat simply because of independents and Hillary's negatives. Obama, IMO, would fare better, but I think it's up in the air at the momoent.

Posted by DDP | April 4, 2008 10:56 AM

But the real hard-core Bushies haven't forgotten what McCain did and said in the 2000 campaign. And McCain campaigning now on stuff like 'honor' and 'loyalty' isn't going to inspire them to vote for him either. They just don't trust him-- and "This time, I can be trusted" isn't an effective slogan.

Posted by MattF | April 4, 2008 11:01 AM

If he is so big on not lying, not cheating, and not stealing, why the hell is he still a Republican?

Posted by John Cole | April 4, 2008 11:05 AM

Matthew, you continue to ignore McCain's appeal to independent voters.

Yes, the six or seven independent voters who love the Iraq War will vote for McCain.

Posted by Gary Sugar | April 4, 2008 11:10 AM

MattF,

The hard-core Bushies you speak of are unlikely to sit out an election, or vote or a candidate who has no chance of winning. For them, they have too much to lose by not having their main interests (militarist, corporatist government, low taxes) represented. Thus, they hold their nose, and vote the Republican Party.

It's not a matter of John McCain. Their love of power and their visceral hate for anything liberal will force their hand on this one. McCain's in a good position.

Also, if the Dems go to the convention, forget it for them. I think the average voter won't put up with this shit much longer.

Posted by DDP | April 4, 2008 11:15 AM

These numbers are interesting but: The problem for the Democrats is that Bush isn't running again. If he were, they would likely win. And if there were an end to this primary season, they would still win against McCain, although not as decisively as some might think.

But the Democrats are absolutely killing their chances with this primary season. As much as people really, really want there to be closure on June 10, there won't be, because Hillary Clinton is going to fight until the convention.

And no matter who wins at the convention, it is going to be a badly fractured party. McCain would be wise to say he's just running for one term.

Posted by Joe Strummer | April 4, 2008 11:43 AM

I think you're missing the big news in the McCain spot. Apparently he's going to report President Bush to the assistant principal for lying and cheating.

M'kay?

Posted by Alan in SF | April 4, 2008 11:56 AM

The hard-core Bushies you speak of are unlikely to sit out an election, or vote or a candidate who has no chance of winning.

Bah, I'm sure these voters would believe they had an excellent chance of winning while backing a 3rd party candidate like Bob Barr. They'd think they were on the path to a smashing victory in the election just the same as we are in Iraq. Reality and political judgment are really their forte.

Posted by J.B. | April 4, 2008 12:06 PM

DDP--

I'm about the last person that one would go to for a understanding of what Republican voters are thinking-- but the political types I know regard McCain with a notable lack of enthusiasm. And 'insufficient enthusiasm' is a mortal sin in politics.

Also, about the endless Democratic campaign. I agree that it gets tiresome, but I also think that the back and forth of campaigning has made both Clinton and Obama significantly stronger candidates now than they were earlier. But we shall see.

Posted by MattF | April 4, 2008 12:26 PM

McCain needs the support of that lunatic 20% that still supports Bush because they are the activists in the Republican party. They'll be the ones that support and campaign on McCain's behalf and without them he won't be able to pull in large numbers of Independents and low information voters.

Posted by tom.a | April 4, 2008 2:24 PM

Ted Williams' military service was highly admirable, but he was a terrible manager (believe me, I was there). So McCain really is emulating his hero.

Posted by Alan in SF | April 4, 2008 2:57 PM

It's not the long primary that's hurting Dems, it's their candidates. If you guys had a centrist Dem in the picture -- an Evan Bayh, for example -- the election wouldn't even be competitive. Hillary was smart enough to understand this, which is why she spent her first term in the Senate building a centrist track record. Running against the liberal Obama has forced her to unmask herself as a liberal too.

Despite the unpopularity of Bush, American remains a center-right country (in fact, this is part of the reason for Bush's unpopularity, as he has snubbed the right on issues like government spending, Medicare Part D, etc.).

Posted by Fred | April 4, 2008 3:21 PM

Re: Despite the unpopularity of Bush, American remains a center-right country

Maybe it seems that way if you live in the South or Utah, but if you live in California or New England you'd argue that it was a center-left country. Overall I'd say that America is a fairly middle-middle country. And note that with Bush it wasn't his early feints to the center that earned him unpopularity. He did well enough when he was pushing No Child Left Behind and the Medicare Drug Benefit. He tanked when he led with a series of rightwing salvos in his second term like Social Security privitization and the Terri Schiavo fiasco. Add to that his major (neocon) project coming a-cropper and I think you have to conclude that the US will accept a very moderate conservatism, but not anything farther right. And look back to the 80s: Ronald Reagan's popularity increased as his administration aged and Reagan himself moved away from hard right policies toward a more centrist governance. (Of course Reagan had the benefit of Michael Gorbachev, and of a Democratic Congress; the former gave him his great foreign policy breakthrough and the latter kept him on a fairly short leash domestically)

Posted by JonF | April 5, 2008 10:31 AM