Official Playoff Predictions

Okay. In the East. I have Boston and Detroit and Orlando all winning easily (shocking). I think my Wizards will beat the Cavs this time in round three of the NBA's most mediocre rivalry. Next up, Detroit beats Orlando (of course) and (of course) Boston beats Washington and then beats Detroit

In the West, I'm taking the Lakers, Hornets, Jazz, and Suns though I'd really like to see San Antonio prevail and vindicate my skepticism about the Shaq deal. Then I think Lakers beat Jazz and Suns beat Hornets, further un-vindicating my skepticism. Then Lakers beat Suns.

Finals is Boston over Los Angeles.

Comments

Agree with you 100% about the East, with the proviso that the Boston/Detroit series lasts seven games.

Completely disagree with you about the West. San Antonio will prevail.

Posted by Jasper | April 17, 2008 3:18 PM

Provided that Boston even makes it out of the LEast (which they won't, and we can all go back to calling KG the most underwhelming "superstar" player ever), Doc Rivers over Phil Jackson? Give me a break.

Lakers in five.

Posted by Shine | April 17, 2008 3:20 PM

Matt,
Whoa, easy. Let me help you back off that limb you climbed out on.

Posted by Craig Greg | April 17, 2008 3:21 PM

Pretty good picks, Matt.

I actually give Toronto a chance. They can shoot lights out and if they get hot... Plus, Orlando just ain't that good.

I'm taking Spurs over Suns, too. Steve Nash, alas, is overrated and will turn the ball over in the final seconds when it really matters. I hate people who say book it...but, you can book it.

Boston is the kingfish this year.

Posted by World B Frazzled | April 17, 2008 3:21 PM

West (rounds won in parentheses): Lakers (4), New Orleans (1), San Antonio (2), Houston (1).

East: Boston (3), Detroit (1), Orlando (2), Wizards (1).

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | April 17, 2008 3:25 PM

Playoff experience counts more than you are giving it credit for. Teams like Detroit, San Antonio, and Cleveland will do better than you suggest.

Posted by Sam | April 17, 2008 3:32 PM

Agree with Matt, except Dallas will beat the Hornets, setting them up for another showdown with the Spurs...the Spurs win again, but then lose to LA in the conference finals.

Posted by jamie | April 17, 2008 3:33 PM

Playoff experience counts more than you are giving it credit for. Teams like Detroit, San Antonio, and Cleveland will do better than you suggest.

Posted by Sam | April 17, 2008 3:33 PM

Why are people picking LA to beat Boston?

Boston made the Lakers look foolish twice this year, just crushed them.

Plus, the Lakers lose on matchups and experience and defense, the things that win championships.

Yes, Kobe is the best player in the series, but in Pierce, Tony Allen and Posey, the Celtics have three excellent defenders to throw at him.

Plus, KG crushes Gasol on offense and limits him severely on D.

And who is gonna guard Ray Allen? Kobe needs to play Pierce, or you've got Luke Walton guarding Pierce and that ain't gonna work, sorry, Pierce will crush him.

Plus Rondo/Cassell/House is way way better than Fisher/Farmar. That's not even a contest.

The Lakers love is all hype right now. The Celtics won 9 more games than the Lakers, crushed them in their two meetings, will have home court advantage, play better D, win the matchups, etc.

Not sure on what grounds anyone picks the Lakers. And not, winning the West doesn't mean you're the best. The Celtics CRUSHED the west like 25-5 or something, so that argument is garbage.

Posted by Frankly Mr. Frankly | April 17, 2008 3:34 PM

I'm going to troll this blog and any basketball post so hard when Boston doesn't even make it to the finals.

Nothing is better that seeing New England teams choke.

Posted by Shine | April 17, 2008 3:39 PM

East Semis - Boston v. Cleveland, Detroit v. Orlando
East Finals - Boston v. Detroit
East Champ - Detroit

West Semis - LA v. Utah, Phoenix v. New Orleans
West Finals - LA vs. Phoenix
West Champ - Phoenix

NBA Champ - Detroit
Finals MVP - Rasheed Wallace

Boston will have a much tougher second round series than Detroit and fatigue, minor injury tweaks will play a factor in them losing to a deep Detroit. In the West I have less of a feel but I think Phoenix has the kind of size you need in the playoffs and several players that can get to the line and shoot a high FT% (Nash, Barbosa, Hill) which I think can be a deciding factor. Detroit has the size to play Phoenix straight up and will wear them out with depth. It will be a close fun series but Detroit is too solid and too deep.

Posted by joejoejoe | April 17, 2008 3:39 PM

I have to make a conditional pick: if Bynum is OK, then Lakers over Celtics in the final. If not, then Celtics over Suns. That's right, I, too said the Shaq trade was dumb, and now I think the Suns look pretty damn good. No, I can't explain why.

The Suns have me very confused. I could see them winning it all or losing in the first round.

Utah is a tempting pick, but they'll just have to win too many road games. I don't see it happening.

I'm still in mourning over the Warriors. I won't get out of that funk until the first round is over, probably. I think they should petition the league to move to the Eastern Conference. They'd be the third-best team, no doubt.

I assume the people here who are citing the Celtics dominance of the Lakers this year are only talking about the post-Gasol-trade Lakers. Right?

Posted by too many steves | April 17, 2008 3:41 PM

Why are people picking LA to beat Boston?

The Lakers have more length, more depth, and more youth. My suspicion is that they'll hide Gasol on defense, put Kobe on Pierce and Odom on Garnett. Maybe start Farmar for defense on Rajon and keep Fisher for Allen. Dunno. Allen's going to be a problem.

The Celts will be favored; I'm just hoping that they're old.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | April 17, 2008 3:41 PM

And there's no way Cleveland loses to the Wiz. I don't know this happened, but somehow LeBron has become criminally underrated. The dude just averaged 30/8/8 for the season, and it looks like he'll be 4th in the MVP voting. Ridiculous. That team would have trouble winning 20 games without him. Their 2nd-best player is probably Zydrunas Ilgauskas, a guy who'd be the 5th-best player on a healthy Lakers team.

Posted by too many steves | April 17, 2008 3:45 PM

Detroit all the way. They easily have the best starting 5 in the league, and they finally have a bench that can play serious ball too and, more importantly, that has allowed their starting 5 to get plenty of rest down the stretch. They can handle Boston just fine, as well as whatever manages to limp out of the bloodbath in the West.

Posted by Reader | April 17, 2008 3:45 PM

If my Suns finally beat the goddamn Spurs, I will be happy with whatever happens in the subsequent rounds. If Shaq happens to 'inadvertently' elbow Bruce Bowen into a well deserved concussion, that would be icing on the cake.

The Spurs did look good against the Jazz last night, though. Those fuckers are like the T-1000 in Terminator 2-the only way to kill them is to throw them in fucking molten steel.

Posted by Waingro | April 17, 2008 3:48 PM

Everyone's going to regret doubting New Orleans very, very soon.

Detroit over New Orleans in the finals.

Posted by right | April 17, 2008 3:49 PM

mavs are the sleepers in this series... watch. :)

Posted by lisa | April 17, 2008 3:58 PM

Bos def. Atl
Cle def. Was
Orl def. Tor
Det def. Phi

LAL def. Den
Hou def. Uta
Pho def. SAS
Dal def. NO

Bos def. Cle
Orl def. Det

LAL def. Hou
Pho def. Dal

Bos def. Orl
Pho def. LAL

Bos def. Pho

Posted by blah | April 17, 2008 4:07 PM

I'd really like to see [Hillary] prevail and vindicate my skepticism about [Barack].

This sort of sounds like Petey's (and maybe Jerome's) opposition to Obama. Something like "Evil will always triumph because good is dumb" sort of thing.

Can we talk about who is dirtier, Bruce Bowen or Hillary?

Posted by ben | April 17, 2008 4:14 PM

"The Lakers have more length, more depth, and more youth. My suspicion is that they'll hide Gasol on defense, put Kobe on Pierce and Odom on Garnett."

Nah. The Wiz have proven this season that you have to play a big guy on KG to neutralize him in the post. Odom's not that guy.

The problem for the Celts is that KG and Perkins are great interior defenders, but I'm not sure they can handle Gasol or Odom off the dribble.

Mike

Posted by MBunge | April 17, 2008 4:17 PM

Unless I missed the part of the debate where Hillary kicked Obama in the face, it's still Bowen by a mile.

Posted by too many steves | April 17, 2008 4:18 PM

EC 1st round: Bos, Det, Orl, Cle
EC semis: Bos, Orl
EC finals: Bos

WC 1st round: LAL, Dal, Phx, Hou
WC semis: LAL, Phx
WC finals: LAL

Finals: Bos

Since I don't have a team in the playoffs this year, I'm adopting the Mavs (but no, unlike Petey, I'm not switching teams completely merely because my favorite player got traded there). Maybe I'm putting undue weight on games I've seen recently, but Dallas and Phoenix have been coming together, and they both have a LOT of playoff experience. (San Antonio, of course, has plenty, but New Orleans really does lack it - you've got Peja and... nobody else.) Also, I'd like to see Phoenix win to validate my un-skepticism of the Shaq trade (even though I admitted I wouldn't have had the balls to pull that trigger). In the Eastern Conference, I think Detroit is on the way down, and Flip is a bad coach, so I think Orlando really has a better than 50% chance of taking them down. But in the end, Boston's on a mission and I don't see them losing.

Posted by Al | April 17, 2008 4:25 PM

Uh, the folks picking Orlando to beat Detroit have some explaining to do. How on earth do you see that happening?

Posted by Reader | April 17, 2008 4:27 PM

If Bynum and Ariza are back in time for the finals (and Bynum picks up where he left off) they should be favored over the Celtics. But I think the Celtics have it as the Lakers are currently configured.

Also, while I favor the Lakers to get to the finals, the West is so evenly matched that the odds are still far less than 50%, just greater than any other team's odds.

Posted by Mark | April 17, 2008 4:30 PM

The Celts will beat the hawks in one game by so many points that they'll hafta be applied to the next three games: Hawks forfeit the remainder... =-)

No way the Cavs get beat by the Wizards. Just not gonna happen. On paper, you might be tempted to say, sure looks good... but the Wizards just don't have it together and they haven't played a consistent starting lineup all year. That's the only reason they've gotten this far: no team has been able to adequately prepare for them. That's not how playoffs go tho..

Detroit will edge past the Sixers in six or seven games. Just barely. Then they will play what will most likely be the most exciting, and grueling, seven games of the entire playoffs against the Magic (who will sweep Toronto...) That could go either way... but my feeling is that Orlando is hungrier.

Celtics will spank Cleveland handily and then win against whomever wins the Detroit-Orlando tussle.

In the west:

In five games (with averages of 212 points for Denver and 198 for LA) and which will feature absolutely no defense whatsoever, the Nuggets will silence the pens and jaws of the Laker-lovefest for at least 14 seconds, a new record...

The Jazz and the Rockets are another toss-up. Could go either way. Seven games. I like the Rockets only because I think a Rockets-Nuggets matchup afterwards will be better basketball than a Jazz-Nuggets matchup. Who ever wins that will lose to the Suns in the next round.

That's right. I said it. The Spurs will go down to the Suns in the first round after it is discovered that Manu Ginobili has fifteen cracked vertebrae from carrying the entire team thus far... Shaq will average 28 minutes a game (24 of them in the paint and the rest shuffling between the paint and the bench...) causing enough of a distraction for a SToudemire bust-out of ginormous proportions, causing the heretofore silenced laker lovers to ask aloud "Who is this Stoudemire fellow and why didn't we consider HIM for MVP?

Dallas will beat the Hornets, but will fall to the Suns in the next round.

Then the Suns will go on to a truly memorable six game loss to the Celtics. Paul Pierce will be series MVP.

Posted by Petr | April 17, 2008 4:30 PM

Agree with Matt that the Celtics are looking good.
For sure, they're old; but Doc Rivers gave the
stars a lot of rest over the last couple of weeks,
and they should get more rest by sweeping their
first-round series. They have such a lot of ways
to beat you that they're going to be hard for
anyone to stop. Though the Pistons are always tough.

I can't agree that KG is "underwhelming": we just saw the biggest turnaround in NBA history, and the arrival of KG was the biggest part of it - through his own play, his leadership, and not least the fact that other veterans wanted to come to Boston to play with him.

Posted by Richard Cownie | April 17, 2008 4:38 PM

In five games (with averages of 212 points for Denver and 198 for LA) and which will feature absolutely no defense whatsoever, the Nuggets will silence the pens and jaws of the Laker-lovefest for at least 14 seconds, a new record...

Why is it people don't know the difference between pace and efficiency? Denver is more of a defensive team than an offensive team, regardless of what the final score may look like. Check out: http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2008/

Denver scores 112.1 per 100 possessions, which is 11th best in the league, but the only give up 107.5 points per 100 possessions, which is 9th best in the league. So it is close, but they rank better on defense than offense. But they also are #1 in pace, meaning games with Denver have many more possessions than games with other teams, which increases both team's scores.

Meanwhile, the Lakers have the 3rd best offense (114.9) and 6th best defense (107.1), and the 6th quickest pace.

Posted by Mark | April 17, 2008 4:42 PM

I base the best teams in the West based upon who the blazers couldn't beat:

San Antonio
Phoenix
Houston

Phoenix vs. Boston in the Finals. Then it's a toss-up. Phoenix was the most impressive western play-off bound team I've watched this year. Lots of veterans - very savvy. The Lakers are overrated until they get Bynum back (who has only played ten impressive games in his career, but that is ten more impressive games then Greg Oden has played).

Posted by Nick | April 17, 2008 5:17 PM

if the Spurs get past the Suns, they win the whole enchilada.

Wiz beat the Cavs at the only east upset, and Mavs drop the Hornets in the west.

Posted by MP | April 17, 2008 5:30 PM

Why are people picking LA to beat Boston?

Boston made the Lakers look foolish twice this year, just crushed them.

After they played the Celtics the Lakers traded for some Spanish dude that I heard was pretty good.

Posted by Mo | April 17, 2008 5:36 PM

I don't see anything preventing a Detroit-Boston ECF, and I think it could be a great series.

Out West, Spurs will hammer the Suns in five or six games, Lakers will either sweep or handle the Nuggets in five, and the other two are really too close for me to call. I like Utah somewhat, and I am pulling for New Orleans, but they will have a tough time with Dallas.

Lakers and Spurs will play in the Western Conference Finals, and much depends on the health of the key participants. The Spurs are good on defense every night, but they are only special on offense if Ginobili has it going. So if he gets tweaked, then they are done. All things considered, I think it is tough to expect the Spurs to win three series this year.

So give me the Lakers to win the whole thing. I do think the winner will come from the West.

Posted by Curtis | April 17, 2008 6:00 PM

Gasol is pretty good; but Bynum was supposedly the second coming until he played Boston and was made to look foolish by Kendrick Perkins.

Everyone says "if Bynum is back to his normal self" - well, that ain't happening, no chance. He won't even be back until the WCF if at all, and there is simply no chance that kid who is a head case as it is will be ready to play playoff style basketball. If the big game vs. the Celtics was any sign, he never was ready for big games.

But look, Gasol is not the second coming. He's not close to as good as KG. He plays zero defense, and that is where he really hurts them in terms of being a replacement for Bynum.

As to the Lakers having "more length, more depth and more youth" as someone wrote earlier...

More length, only if Bynum comes back. Otherwise KG and Perkins and PJ Brown trump what the Lakers got in Gasol and Turiaf. Because Gasol's length doesn't help that much on D because he is soft, and Odom is tall but doesn't play like it half the time.

Depth? Uh, no. Sorry. Celtic's bench of Sam Cassell, Posey, House, Tony Allen, Leon Powe, Big Baby and PJ Brown is simply the deepest and best bench in the league. It has youth and experience, size and hustle, shooters and defenders.

Cassell is way better than Farmar, who has no playoff experience.

Posey is way better that Ariza, who isn't even playing because he's hurt. But Ariza is so overrated it's pathetic. And Vlad Rad? Posey eats guys like that for lunch. Just as good on offense and crushes him on D.

Powe and PJ Brown are both better than Turiaf. Big Baby would hold his own against him.

Sasha and House are pretty comparable.

As for youth, I'd take the Celtics youth of Rondo, Perkins, Powe, & Big Baby Davis over Farmar, Sasha, Ronny, and Bynum. Not sure who else on the Lakers qualifies as youth these days.

Matchup-wise:

Rondo >>> Fisher
Allen Pierce >>>>>> Vlad Rad
KG >> Odom
Perkins

Cassell >> Farmar
Posey >> Walton
PJ Brown > Turiaf
Powe > Turiaf
House = Sasha

Plus they got home court.

Celtics over Lakers 4-2

Posted by Barney Franklin | April 17, 2008 6:06 PM

How funny would it be if of the three major sports, the Patriots were the only ones NOT to win a title? Ha.

Anyways, if the Celts take down the Lakers in the finals, I will be delirious. I won't be able to celebrate, being deployed, but I will at least be very happy.

Posted by LnGrrrR | April 17, 2008 6:07 PM

I think one reason why people are picking Boston is that they're (1) guaranteed home court, (2) probably won't have to fight through more than one tough series and (3) the winner of the west will have to fight through 3 tough series after a dog fight of a regular season finish. Boston is strong, but they benefit incredibly by playing in the East (where the Warriors would have finished 4th).

And people who right things like "Rondo >>> Fisher
" and "Spurs will hammer the Suns in five" should just lay off the paint chips.

Posted by ben | April 17, 2008 6:13 PM

And people that write "right" instead of "write" shouldn't be doing it when calling out other commenters.

Posted by ben | April 17, 2008 6:21 PM

Uh, Rondo is a lot better than Fisher.

If you actually watched the Lakers play the Celtics in their second game this year, you would have seen Rondo blow by Fisher repeatedly and dish to open teammates effortlessly because Fish's teammates had to cover for him and leave their men.

Fisher's days as a top notch defender are like 4 years behind him. Rondo might very well be the best defensive point guard in the league.

Offensively, Fish is a much better shooter, but Rondo is way faster, a much better passer, a much better rebounder and as for finishing Rondo is in a whole different league.

Fish has hit some big shots in his career, but if they play the Celtics, expect him to spend a lot of time on the bench, because he simply can't match up with Rondo and Phil knows it and will go with Farmar instead, just like he did in the regular season.

But then, you have to actually watch the games to understand this stuff.

Posted by Eating Paint Chips | April 17, 2008 6:27 PM

ben - you might want to back away from the Sherman-Williams yourself. If the Cs offered the Lakers a straight-up trade of Rondo for Fisher that would happen in a heartbeat. And the next sound you would hear would be the sound of Danny Ainge hitting the pavement after he'd been pushed out the window by Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce.

If you watched any of the games in the 2d half of this season, you know that Rondo has seriously grown up, though his rep hasn't caught up. RR pretty much undressed Chauncey Billups when the Cs beat the Pistons in the second half -made key stops and baskets down the stretch, even got a foul call on Billups with a well-timed flop in the 4th quarter. Kid plays like a veteran.

OK, but you want more. Let's go to the stat line - Rondo is better straight down the line.

Check it out. Fish has the lead in one category - he scores one point more per game - 11.4 to 10.6. But that's because he heaves up a bunch more shots - Rondo shoots it at .496 - a fantastic number for a PG - while Fish is flopping around at .436. The reason Rondo shoots better is that he can still get to the rim. Which means he can get a layup to answer a rally from the other team. Fish still has to shoot the j.

And it's all downhill from there. Assists? Score it: Fish 2.9 per game - Rondo 5.1. Not close.

Turnovers? 2.1 pg for Fish, 1.9 for Rondo.
Rebounds? Rondo 4.2, Fish 2.1.
Steals? Rondo 1.7, Fish 1.

And all this seriously understates the gap. If you want a lockdown defender, or a team defender, no doubt it's Rondo, who's been named to all-NBA defense teams. If you prefer Fish to Rondo, well, that paint chip habit is probably terminal.

Posted by TL | April 17, 2008 6:40 PM

I never said Rondo is chopped liver. "Rondo >>> Fisher" means that Rondo is orders of magnitude better than Fisher (like in the way that "Celtics >>> Heat" or "West >>> East"). Rondo may be better and Fisher may be on the downside of his career, but the difference is not that great.

Rondo has a big upside and he's playing well now, but I'd feel really uncomfortable going into the playoffs if my starting PG hadn't played a minute of playoff basketball and was in his second year (if I were in the West).

Posted by ben | April 17, 2008 6:58 PM

Well, you might consider this a troll comment, Matt, but:

I don't give a shit.

Try this:

I hope Al Qaeda drops planes on all your favorite sports teams.

Or better yet, hijacks the planes your favorite sports teams are heading to the "Big Game" on and flies them into ABC News HQ.

Have a nice day, sports freak.

Posted by Richard Steven Hack | April 17, 2008 7:08 PM

All the advantages Rondo has over Fisher are the same ones Farmar has over Cassell (and vice versa). If the Lakers offered Farmar straight up for Cassell, the Celtics would take it in a heartbeat as well. Fisher's value comes from being a big player in big moments and veteran leadership, it's not his numbers. Why do you think the Cs were drooling over Sam I Am?

The value of a lockdown PG against the triangle is significantly diminished. Especially on the team like the Lakers, where the PG is the 4th, maybe 5th option. If RR shuts down Fish, it will have minimal effect on their offense. The Cs need a Bruce Bowen type defender to shut down Bryant.

Funny how that matchup had Pierce and Allen matched up against Vlad Rad, and not Kobe. By the time the Finals roll around, Bynum should be back to game shape so their lineup will be:

5 Bynum
4 Gasol
3 Odom
2 Bryant
1 Fisher/Farmar

There are 4 legitimate scorers in that lineup. Odom or Bryant are going to set a record for point scored in a finals if Jesus is defending them straight up. Plus, there's the whole coaching thing. Phil Jackson will outscheme and outadjust Doc Rivers. I just don't think Doc will be able to get them past the Pistons, but if he does, I'd say Lakers in 6.

Posted by Mo | April 17, 2008 7:08 PM

Matt got it right.

My only worry is the Celtics vs. Detroit. Billups is one tough character -- more of a problem for the Celts than any other guard in the league -- but as TL points out, Rondo learned from his first game against Billups and whupped him the next time.

I've been watching Celtics basketball since the Havlicek era (which means through the Bird era), and I've never had a more enjoyable year than this. Part of that is seeing Rondo grow up and learn to handle guards like Billups and Chris Paul, and the other part is seeing a team where all the players are committed to defense, sublimate their egos, and keep their eyes on the prize. How rare is that?

Still, Detroit worries me more than the Lakers.

Posted by Walter Crockett | April 17, 2008 7:12 PM

Anybody that has the Lakers beating the celtics in a final this year must be joking, or hasn't been paying attention at all. Even though they have done nothing yet. You just know a superior powerhouse when you see one. Simply cause of dynamic chemistry the Celtics are as dominating as the Dream team of 92 for all of you that remember And i'm not forgetting about the Bulls Dynasty either. I'm saying this for one simple reason. They have found instant chemistry thats unmeasured! Forget the big 3 for a second. The bench alone could carry this team through 2 rounds.. Celtics will sweep the east, maybe drop one or 2 to Detroit. Sweep Finals. The Pistons might take it to a game 7 but i don't see it happening. They are poised and barring injury nothing is stopping them. Taking it the distance and beyond!

Posted by Derek Lee | April 17, 2008 7:22 PM

Mo, I disagree with you, but at least you're in the ballpark.

Sounds like you agree Rondo is better than whoever the Lakers have available as their starter. But that (of course) covers most of the game. I'm agnostic on whether your starter is better than our backup, but, well, that doesn't much matter. Sure Fisher and Cassell have a lot of playoff experience. But so do Magic and Bird, and I wouldn't count on them to win the game. Time marches on, the torch is passed, etc., etc.

As for RR's defense - it's not just one on one. As you'll see - I'm not sure Fisher gets that big shot off with Rondo on him, triangle offense, square offense or trapezoid.

The biggest question mark to me is what effect Gasol will have. One reason the Celtics beat down the Lakers down so badly in the regular season was their team defense on Kobe. Ray Allen was able to play (surprisingly) not-terrible one-on-one defense, but what really counted was that every time Kobe tried to get around Allen, Perkins or Garnett or Pierce would step up and cut him off. It was very pretty team D. And before long the Lakers were all jump shots, all the time. Does Gasol change the equation by forcing the bigs to stay home? It's a concern.

On the other side of the court, the Cs also dominated because Kendrick Perkins(!?!) went off against the Lakers' soft interior D. Even the most rabid Laker fan would have to confess that that was either a pretty lousy defensive scheme or lousy execution. Perk had at least 5 or 6 easy dunks out of the half-court set. Will Gasol help or hurt? Dunno. Haven't seen him.

As for Phil, the genius, Jackson? I can't help but notice that he (like most coaches) wins championships when he has the best players on his team. This year, unless I miss my guess, ain't his year.

Posted by TL | April 17, 2008 7:29 PM

Will Gasol help or hurt? Dunno. Haven't seen him.

You're in for a treat. I had no idea how well he fit the triangle. There's a reason Odom's shooting average heads towards .600 (or better) when Gasol plays. (As I recall, everyone's numbers get jacked.) I don't think people get how good he is for the Lakers. I'm sure that I didn't anticipate him making anything like such a difference on offense.

I fear the Celtics for their roster and their record. But--and I think I've only seen one Celts game--on visual inspection of a game, I take the Lakers quite easily.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | April 17, 2008 7:38 PM

So now people think they know who's better after watching the Celtics play just one game?

Why even post that opinion when you must know it has no value whatsoever?

I hope the game you saw wasn't one of the Celtics/Lakers games when the Lakers got their butts beat.

Posted by The Putter Works | April 17, 2008 8:38 PM

Still, Detroit worries me more than the Lakers.

Yup. Pretty much the verdict throughout Celticland. The house of cards that is the LA Lakers is about to be exposed for what it is.

Posted by Boulevard | April 17, 2008 8:46 PM

Bos, Det, Orl, Cle

LAL, NOK, SA, Utah

Bos, Det

Lal, SA

Bos

LAL

Lakers in 6.

Posted by Pooh | April 17, 2008 8:52 PM

i'm no new england fan (from el paso, root for the dolphins, sf giants, and sonics. i know) but these celts feel right. not only are they stacked and responding to KG, but they have less good teams to get through. there is a ton of good will for KG, allen, and pierce, and they are truly likable. who else was likable? the first pats team that won and the '04 sox. so i think the celtics will win and then become insufferable, while all the while my teams will go 40-4000.

Posted by eska | April 17, 2008 9:01 PM

Los Angeles is massively overrated. A good team? Yes, but horribly lacking in experience. Only two (very key) players with any postseason experience, and a dynamite coach. In a seven game series, an excellent team will pick on the role players. No way they win it this year.

Historically teams need to go through the trenches a year or three to win it all. Boston may be the first to skip those steps, but unlike LA, their key players have all been in the scrum many times. Cassell is key here.

San Antonio is the mystery here. I agree with the perceptive post above that their worst series is Phoenix. They don't match up well right now. They've historically gotten through very tough first rounds against teams that 'had their number,' (Suns in '03, Nuggs in '05, Kings in '06) but this is quite different. If they make it past the Suns, and it's no guarantee, then I can see the Finals again for them.

Posted by Eric | April 17, 2008 9:18 PM

Gasol is 0-3 in playoff series. Odom is 1-3 in playoff series. Bynum, 0-2.
Just putting that out there.

Posted by nbt | April 17, 2008 11:45 PM

I will be shocked if the ECF isn't Detroit-Boston. Boston has to be favored, but the Detroit bench is now a force to be reckoned with, which it really wasn't the last couple of years. If the Pistons show up every game, they could win.

I'm surprised more people aren't picking Utah in the West, so I will, but obviously there are a lot of good teams out there and who knows how it will play out. I think people are too sanguine about the Lakers getting to the Finals--not that they aren't good, but they have to win three tough series, and they aren't that much better than the other teams.

Don't know who wins the finals. Should be a great series though.

Posted by matt wilbert | April 18, 2008 12:07 AM

"Utah is a tempting pick, but they'll just have to win too many road games. I don't see it happening."

Utah has played fine against playoff teams in the West on the road. Their crappy road record comes from dropping games against bad teams on the road.

Deron Williams is going to pick Houston apart. The matchup with the Lakers will be really tough but I'd call the odds there about even. Who ever gets out of the Dallas-Phoenix-Spurs scrum will be formidable. But I like the Jazz or Lakers.

Cleveland loses in the first round.

Which sets up an awesome Wiz-Cs matchup in the second round.

Posted by Colatina | April 18, 2008 12:16 AM

wilbert,

There's a simple reason why the Jazz isn't more favored. Utah is an amazing team at home, but they're quite a bit less successful away. Only the Nuggets and Mavs have a worse record, so Utah would almost certainly have to play 3 series on the road to win the West (barring some upsets).

Posted by ben | April 18, 2008 12:27 AM

Iverson on round 1:

"Let's go. This is what it's all about for me. You can't draw it up any better. People say that he's best basketball player on the planet, so I'm definitely looking forward to the challenge, especially with me believing that about myself. If you're scared, get a dog. If you're scared, go to church."

I thought the Powder Blues had a decent shot against any team but the Lakers. I don't like the matchups. I think the junky defense Karl is going to play against Kobe is going to leave their 3 point shooters unguarded.

Let's see if Iverson has a couple of rabbits he can pull out of his shorts.

Let's see if Karl prefers to lose "playing the right way" or prefers to risk winning by giving J.R. lots of tick.

-----

Bizarrely hard to figure playoffs in the West.

The Lakers certainly aren't the lock to win the West that some folks seem to think. Without a healthy and integrated Bynum, which they're almost definitely not going to have this year, they're a good, but non-dominant team. They can be beat without divine intervention by multiple teams.

-----

Suns/Spurs is going to be more than slightly interesting.

-----

And every series in the East is going to be utterly unwatchable, unless DeShawn can salvage the otherwise unwatchable WAS/CLE smackdown.

I mean, seriously, will anyone be amped for TOR/ORL even if it goes 7 games?

Posted by Petey | April 18, 2008 1:53 AM

"You're in for a treat. I had no idea how well he fit the triangle. There's a reason Odom's shooting average heads towards .600 (or better) when Gasol plays. (As I recall, everyone's numbers get jacked.) I don't think people get how good he is for the Lakers. I'm sure that I didn't anticipate him making anything like such a difference on offense."

Of course you didn't, SCMT.

And it's not as if anyone tried to tell you things on the day of the trade like:

Pau is a skilled inside presence that a PJ designed and Kobe led team can really use to good effect. Pau is going to give their 3 point shooters' a lot of open looks.

And:

Pau is a terrific two way player with a versatile skill set on both ends of the floor. He's basically a poor man's Duncan. And on a Kobe led team, that's all you need. You'll be in love with the dude soon enough.

Whoever could ever have anticipated such things?

Posted by Petey | April 18, 2008 2:11 AM

Kendrick Perkins only went off in the first game against the Lakers, which was really early in the season during the tumultuous "is Kobe being traded" portion of the season. He only scored 7 in the other game.

The thing about playing team D is that the other options can be left open. Bryant has become much better at hitting the open man and playing more team offense. Gasol's effect has become similar to Shaq's, it's not his individual numbers, but the extra numbers for the other players around. Looks at the effect his arrival has had on Lamar Odom, it's not quite Amare + Shaq level, but looks eerily similar. My basic point is that the previous games are no indication because the Lakers have a completely different look.

As much crap as Jackson gets for superior players, coaches have lost with the exact same talent he's had. And many coaches have lost with the superior talent. As recently as last year, Doc Rivers was considered one of the worst coaches in the NBA. I think players' win loss in the playoff is a lot less important than the coach's. Doc is 0-4 in playoff series. He'll get his first series win this year, but not his first championship.

Posted by Mo | April 18, 2008 2:18 AM

If I wasn't so wrong about your Super Bowl prediction, I would be passionately stating how wrong you are about the Celtics beating my Lakers.

As it is, I'll just say you're wrong about that in a more understated fashion.

Posted by Jimm | April 18, 2008 5:17 AM

Petey:

Fair's fair. I looked back at the thread you linked. You were absolutely right when you said, "You'll be in love with the dude soon enough." I blame my still disturbing Kwame-love for my poor estimation of Gasol's effect.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | April 18, 2008 11:02 AM

Ditto to the guy who says Utah might take the West. Of all the teams the Celtics played, Utah was the toughest, and I believe they beat the Celtics in Boston.

Posted by Walter Crockett | April 18, 2008 11:08 AM

Walter, you beat me to it. I was just thinking that about the Jazz myself.

When they're on, they're scary. They're so long, they shoot and pass extremely well, and they're almost unique in their ability to create openings by moving without the ball.

It was no fun watching them take the Celtics apart, though I had to admire the way they did it.

Posted by TedL | April 18, 2008 12:27 PM

I see Pooh has gone WAAAAAAY out on that limb by predicting the higher seed to win every single series except the San Antonio-NO series, where (instead of the higher seed) he picks the defending champion.

Posted by Al | April 18, 2008 1:53 PM

Hey Matthew -

unlike a lot of non-ESPN sports columnists, you really know your stuff. I couldn't agree more with your calls on the playoff pairings results.

Thought I very much disagree with you about the Shaq trade. Yes, I am a Suns fan. They HAD to make that trade when it became available. The then-current squad was simply not going to get any further in the playoffs, and Marion was a cancer on that locker room. Shaq has proven he still has plenty of gas in the tank, even if they are not going to get 40 minutes a night out of him. The Suns can now play fast break ball nearly as well as they did pre-Shaq, and they also have a viable half-court game. Shaq's presence has made all the Suns tougher.

Suns are going to beat the Sterns in 6. Suns have dominated the Sterns this season post-Shaq and the Sterns - even though they step up the intensity in the 2nd season - have looked really weak the past month, running out of gas in the 2nd half quite frequently.

I too predict Suns-Lakers in the conference finals and even though I am going to root hard for my guys, if I had to put money on the series I'd place it with the Lakers. I have watched us play them and they are simply the better team. Whod'a thunk that back in November, when it wasn't even a sure thing that Kobe would have been playing there in April?

I'm hoping the better team doesn't win that series, that sometimes happens. Nevertheless, Shaq vs. Kobe is going to be VERY entertaining. Go Suns!

Posted by r€nato | April 18, 2008 3:27 PM

Those of you picking the Sterns over the Suns in the 1st round, OBVIOUSLY have not seen how Shaq has completely taken Duncan out of his game EVERY SINGLE TIME he's played him, this last 1/2 season in Phoenix and the previous 3 1/2 seasons in Miami.

The Sterns' age is also showing.

I will put serious-as-a-heart-attack money on the Suns with any of you who want to take the Sterns on that series. $1000? No prob. $10,000? Sure. I'd take out a loan with Guido the Loanshark to make that bet.

Posted by r€nato | April 18, 2008 3:30 PM

Last thoughts: The only question marks about the Suns-Sterns series are, how much dirty play the refs let Bowen get away with and whether the Suns can close out the Sterns in less than 6. I wish D'Antoni would put in Piatkowski or some other bench-rider (he only plays 7 or 8 of his guys anyway) specifically to knock Bowen's dick in the dirt and draw the flagrant 2.

Without the help of Commissioner Stern, crooked ref Donaghy and the absence of Amare and Diaw in Game 5, the Suns would have won that series and gone on to win the title because Utah and Cleveland were far inferior to the Sterns.

Face it, last year's title was tainted. The Sterns needed a LOT of help to get past the Suns.

Posted by r€nato | April 18, 2008 3:34 PM

"I see Pooh has gone WAAAAAAY out on that limb by predicting the higher seed to win every single series except the San Antonio-NO series, where (instead of the higher seed) he picks the defending champion."

I think the home team wins every series of every round in the East. Unless DeShawn can produce Soulja Boy, I think even the LeBronairres take a series.

The West is an utter crapshoot. Predictions approach the level of random silliness. Hollinger's calls seems as likely as any to me, but there still will be major errors.

Boston is the favorite in the Finals only if healthy, which is a less likely outcome for them than some other teams, unless the East is such a cruise that they get lots and lots of rest.

Posted by Petey | April 18, 2008 3:35 PM

Completely disagree with you about the West. San Antonio will prevail.

I'll remember you said that when the Suns bounce them in the first round.

Posted by r€nato | April 18, 2008 3:37 PM

I see Pooh has gone WAAAAAAY out on that limb by predicting the higher seed to win every single series except the San Antonio-NO series, where (instead of the higher seed) he picks the defending champion.

Peruse previous predictions threads and tell me who amongst the commentariat has a better track record than do I?

(Ahem-SA over Cleveland in finals last year, Orlando winning their division this year)

Seriously though, where are the potential upsets?

Posted by Pooh | April 18, 2008 3:37 PM

Alright, here's my picks:

WEST 1st round
LA over Denver in 5
NO over Dallas in 6
Suns over Sterns in 6
Jazz over Rockets in 7

EAST 1st round
Bos over Atl in 5
Det over Phil in 6
Orlando over Toronto in 7
Cleveland over Washington in 7
=======================
WEST Semis
LA over Utah in 7
Suns over NO in 7

EAST Semis
Bos over Cleveland in 6
Det over Orlando in 6
=======================
WEST Finals
LA over Suns in 7 (I really, really, really hope I am wrong)
EAST Finals
Bos over Det in 7 (this could go either way)
=======================
Finals
Boston over LA in 7 (could also go either way no matter who wins the East)

Please forgive my flooding the thread, but this is absolutely going to be one of the most exciting NBA playoffs ever. The Western conference alone is going to be perhaps the best ever, with every team amazingly good and every team except Denver has a legitimate shot at making it to the conference finals.

I can't wait to watch the conference finals and NBA finals. All three of these series should be instant classics.

Posted by r€nato | April 18, 2008 3:50 PM

"The Western conference alone is going to be perhaps the best ever,"

And the Eastern conference is going to be called for lack of a quorum.

Posted by Petey | April 18, 2008 4:02 PM

That's why they call it the Leastern Conference, Petey.

Unfortunately for us Westies, the two best teams in the league happen to be in the East. The Eastern finals will be the real championship series, which is not to say that an LA/Bos or LA/Det Finals is going to be anything like the suckfest that last years Sterns/Cavs series was.

Posted by r€nato | April 18, 2008 4:24 PM

Gasol is 0-3 in playoff series. Odom is 1-3 in playoff series. Bynum, 0-2. Just putting that out there.

And Kevin Garnett has been past the first round of the playoffs once in his career. Paul Pierce twice. Ray Allen twice.

Also, Kobe Bryant has 3 rings.

Who cares?

Posted by right | April 18, 2008 4:24 PM

Phoenix vs. Boston in the Finals. Then it's a toss-up. Phoenix was the most impressive western play-off bound team I've watched this year.

I love you Nick, in a very manly and heterosexual way, and I would like to have your children.

The Suns still don't get no respect and never will til they win it all, though the last four years have changed that somewhat. Thanks for your faith in the team I live and die by; even I don't think they can get past LA but I could be wrong.

Gasol is 0-3 in playoff series. Odom is 1-3 in playoff series. Bynum, 0-2. Just putting that out there.

I agree. That's just silly. Gasol was the star player on a crappy team, how can you hold that against them? The Grizzlies would never have made the playoffs without him; Gasol most certainly was not the reason his ex-team was 0-3.

Posted by r€nato | April 18, 2008 4:28 PM

East

Celts over Hawks, Wiz, Pistons
Pistons over Sixers, Magic

West

Jazz over Rockets, Lakers, Suns
Suns over Spurs, Mavs

Finals

Celtics over Jazz

Posted by Fat Tony | April 18, 2008 4:34 PM

I think they should petition the league to move to the Eastern Conference.

(Warriors)

GS might have made the playoffs if they could have beat Phoenix this past Monday, and they could have done that if Baron Davis had not stayed out late partying on Sunday. He was 2 of 13 in the first half and Nellie benched him the entire 2nd half in a must-win game for them. Rumor is that Davis was hung over. That's flat-out inexcusable.

Bowen is a marked man in the Phx-SA series. I don't think anyone is going to be sent out to put a hit on him but you better believe Shaq and Raja Bell are going to be ready to throw some elbows if he tries any of his thuggish tactics.

Posted by r€nato | April 18, 2008 6:13 PM

Isiah out!

Posted by Pooh | April 18, 2008 6:30 PM

Oh, the Warriors have no one to blame but themselves. They knew Denver was a must-win, and they didn't win it.

But it's still a little messed-up to see them win 48 games and miss the playoffs. I know that by record they'd be 4th in the East, but I think that if they played an Eastern Conference schedule, they would have finished 3rd, ahead of Orlando. The only Eastern teams that looked definitively better than GS this year were Boston and Detroit.

They really need to fix this playoff thing. If they put the best 16 teams in the playoffs, then Toronto and Portland would be the bottom two seeds, and Atlanta and Philly would be out. GS and Portland are more deserving than Atlanta and Philly, and they'd give us much better first-round matchups.

Posted by too many steves | April 18, 2008 6:36 PM