The Boston Difference

I get the sense that a lot of folks are letting the thrilling nature of the Western Conference race blind them to the fact that no matter what happens out there, you'd have to judge the Celtics to be pretty serious favorites against any of these teams. Note, for example, that their superior record isn't a result of weaker competition -- they're 25 and 5 against the West which is much better than any of the Western Conference teams. To be sure, if Andrew Bynum makes some kind of miraculous recovery that could be a different story, but otherwise I'd rate them as a definite "buy" with their contract currently available on Tradesports for less than $30.

Photo by Flickr user Terren in Virginia used under a Creative Commons license

Comments

Interesting. I'd say their chance of beating the Pistons is 60%. And then conditional on their advancing out of the East, their chance of beating the unnamed West opponent (which would have been badly beat up in the West playoffs) would probably again be 60%. That makes a 36% chance of winning the 'ship, so by my numbers, yeah, $0.30 is slightly undervalued.

I think one does need to consider the Celts' lack of playoff experience as a team, though. All their vets (even the bench players like House, Posey, Cassell, PJ Brown) have played in big games, but these guys haven't played as a unit in the playoffs. That's why my estimated probabilities above aren't any higher.

Posted by nbt | April 14, 2008 12:27 PM

Yeah, but your picture brings to mind the one opponent that they can't seem to get an edge on this season: Washington. If the Bullets can get out of the first round against the Cavs, they could give Boston some serious trouble in round 2. I am not dumb enough to actually think it will happen, but its at least as likely as the Warriors upsetting the Mavs in 07.

Posted by wahoomatt | April 14, 2008 12:27 PM

I thought basketball was over. Kansas won the men's game and Tennessee won the women's. It's baseball season now.

Posted by errr | April 14, 2008 12:28 PM

I agree, the Celtics are the prohibitive favorites against anyone. Their play has been quietly astounding this season.

But, why would Bynum's recovery have to be miraculous? You imply that he is out for the season, but that is not the case. While there has been much confusion about his injury, and currently his return has been postponed, Lakers fans are expecting him back well before any NBA finals competition. It looks fairly certain that he won't be back for a first round matchup. But, I sort of expect him for a second round matchup, possibly against the Utah Jazz.

The Lakers will need Bynum to beat the Suns in a WCF matchup. Not that they cant beat the Suns without Bynum, but it will be a very difficult, seven game series.

Also, the Celtics handled the Lakers quite easily earlier in the season when Bynum was at full strength, and the Lakers were rolling. Kendrick Perkins is about the only center who gave Bynum trouble this year. Played him very physicall, and seemed to take him out of his game.

Of course, they havent played since the Gasol trade, and no one has played the Lakers with both Gasol and Bynum. But, I would expect Celtics to be very difficult to beat.

Posted by ValisJason | April 14, 2008 12:30 PM

Of course, the rest of the math says 25-5 against the west means a mere 39-11 against the rest of the East. Still very good, sure, but Phoenix is 24-6 against the East; does this prove they'll be better than the East's best team? Hardly. Arguing by the transitive property in sports is pretty silly.

Posted by jhupp | April 14, 2008 12:34 PM

FWIW: The Tradesports contracts have one point = $0.10, so the contract of the Celts winning it all at 30% is $3, not $30.

Posted by Andrew | April 14, 2008 12:35 PM

I think the "lack of playoff experience" argument doesn't apply nearly as well to a team as otherwise experienced as the Celtics, or more importantly, a team which plays defense the way the Celtics do. I suspect that lack of playoff experience is more harmful to teams whose primary strength is offensive.

Posted by Will Allen | April 14, 2008 12:38 PM

I'm interested to know what Matthew thinks of the (now set in stone) Wizards-Cavs series, which, given this is the 3rd consecutive year for the series, should be a nice rivalry.

Posted by Al | April 14, 2008 12:41 PM

The Pistons are a much better buy on Tradesports @ 11 percent chance of winning the NBA title. Detroit's been in the Eastern Conference finals 4 years running and if you put all equal teams in a hat their chances would be 25 percent based on that alone. Detroit is 11-5 vs. the West's top 8 teams, Boston is 12-4 vs. the same. I'm not sure how that one game difference translates and something like a 9% better win percentage translates into a 300% better chance of winning the NBA championship but I'd bet the Pistons if you want to make money.

Posted by joejoejoe | April 14, 2008 12:43 PM

1. The Lakers' record with Gasol in the lineup is comparable to the Celtics' overall record. The Lakers also match up well with the Celts. Without Bynum, the Lakers lack effective weight inside. Kendrick Perkins notwithstanding, the Celtics also seem to lack effective weight inside.

2. If Bynum comes back--and I think he's basically out for the duration--he'll get spotty minutes off the bench, except in case of emergency.

3. Gasol is a godsend for the Lakers. He fits with the triangle offense much better than anyone (that I'm aware of) anticipated. It's a bit ridiculous, really.

It would be an unbelievable series between two closely matched teams, but I'd take the Lakers in a Lakers-Celts series.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | April 14, 2008 12:55 PM

The difference, SCMT, is that the Lakers have to get through 3 tough playoff series to get to the finals. Do they even have a better than even chance against the field? The Celtics don't necessarily have to beat the Lakers to win the title.

Posted by mpowell | April 14, 2008 1:06 PM

Thats wierd i thought the celts were a bunch of chumpy, second rate players that the sun happened to shine on during the regular season. What if the Celts had to play 2x as play games against GOOD teams(ones in the West). would they be:

a) tired cause of better competition and have a sub-60 win seasonaan

b) better perpared for big games that will need to be grinded out until the last second

c) ready to lose to the Suns, Lakers, or Pistons

answer: all of the above.... wake up boston you cant beat the Pistons

Posted by Aface | April 14, 2008 1:12 PM

My Hawks are going to trounce the Celtics.

Posted by Andy | April 14, 2008 1:14 PM

The difference, SCMT, is that the Lakers have to get through 3 tough playoff series to get to the finals.

Yeah, I thought about mentioning that. Every team likely to be in the Western playoffs scares me at least a little bit. I'm hoping that tough earlier series thin the future strong opponents of the Lakers. Maybe they get Houston rather than Utah, for example.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | April 14, 2008 1:18 PM

Dear Aface,

The Celtics beat the Pistons 2 out of 3 this season. The same Pistons team that also plays in the East and has just as easy a schedule as the Celtics do.

Posted by mark f | April 14, 2008 1:31 PM

Hollinger has the Celtics as 42.7% likely to win it all. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds So, the Celtics seem like a good investment at the price.

Posted by Ephus | April 14, 2008 1:40 PM

Kudos to the Nuggets for winning last night and getting into the postseason. I have been pretty regularly trashing them the last couple of weeks, but they were impressive last night against a motivated Houston team. (Surely, they will handle Memphis, right?)

The West is so wide open with good teams. I don't seem Houston coming out of the West with Yao, and I don't see Denver coming out either, but the other six teams all have very legitimate chances. Dallas's play since Dirk has returned has been very much improved, and they have the freedom that comes with low expectations. If they draw New Orleans, I could see them winning that series in the first round and gaining some redemption.

I just don't watch enough of the East to have much of an opinion on the Boston-Detroit thing, but calling the Wizards upset of Boston in a seven game series is just short of psychosis.

Posted by Curtis | April 14, 2008 1:40 PM

"Yeah, but your picture brings to mind the one opponent that they can't seem to get an edge on this season: Washington."

Thank you, wahoomatt, for speaking the truth we need to hear! It may just be the homer in me, or maybe I'm just crazy, but I really like the Wizards coming in to the playoffs this year. Caron and Deshawn are totally fearless and, yes, they have beaten the Celtics 3 out of 4 this season. The Wiz split their series with the Cavs, and I don't think Bronny James and the Shondells have really gelled since Szerbiack, West and Wallace came on board, sending The Beard II to the Bulls.

It's not like I want to overlook the Celts and how much their big three want it this year, but the Wiz have been aching to get their shot with everyone healthy and Eddie Jordan, to my reckoning, is the best coach in the East.

Whether its the Wiz, Celts or Hedo's magic coming out of the big E this year, I've gotta like our chances of beating the West. At the bottom the East may be ugly, but every team at the top of the East (minus the Cavs) seems to have a good system in place and has been clicking since the All Star break. The Western titans (except for the Hornets) have had to make too many mid-season adjustments and haven't shown the disciplined play of any of the East's top 5. I'm thinking this year will be one that puts "system" over "talent" and maybe next year we'll see that Suns-Celts championship match-up everyone's been looking forward to...

Posted by LIJ | April 14, 2008 1:41 PM

I have to say, I would love to watch a retro Lakers/Celtics series, which looks quite possible. The West is going to be a madhouse, while only one or two teams can even think of stopping Boston.

Posted by B. Minich | April 14, 2008 1:45 PM

I think the point was that while you would have to favor the Celtics over the Pistons, but paying 3 times as much for the Celtics is probably too much.

I am looking forward to the series though, I think the chances that they both make it to the Eastern finals are probably at least 75%.

Posted by matt wilbert | April 14, 2008 1:46 PM

The biggest factor that seems to be ignored is that Doc Rivers is a terrible (playoff) coach. He has never won a playoff series, ever. Do you really see see him outcoaching Popovich, Jackson, Scott, Adelman, D'Antoni or Sloan over a 7 game series. Once those coaches start making adjustments, Rivers is screwed. The Celtics probably won't have as rough a road as any of the West teams, but age might catch up to the Celtics.

Posted by Mo | April 14, 2008 1:47 PM

Non sequitur. Non sequitur. Hyperbole. Unsourced assumption. Non sequitur. Flourished run-on sentence.

Posted by phil | April 14, 2008 1:53 PM

The Lakers will win the championship this year. They have Phil, Kobe Bryant, Pau gasol, Derek Fisher but the one player that will make the difference these playoffs and everyone always forgets is Lamar Odom. He just might even get Mvp of the playoffs if he's consistent enough. The celtics will make it to the finals but will fail just like the patriots.

Posted by victor | April 14, 2008 1:59 PM

This is the Celtics' year, and adding Sam Cassell is to throw in tough shots at clutch moments is just sick -- as it was for the Lakers to add Bob McAdoo back in the 80's, when they already had Magic, Kareen, Scott, Cooper, Worthy, etc.

But if the Lakers make it to the Finals more or less healthy, they will have the youth and the motivation to give the Celts a battle. I don't think Bynum will be a significant factor this year, but Gasol is the perfect player for the triangle. Yesterday he played Tim Duncan, perhaps the best big man in the game, straight up. Garnett is faster than Duncan and a better shooter from distance, but he doesn't like playing center much -- and yet may have to this series.

Potentially, this is the opening round of a battle of franchises for the ages. Here's hoping both teams make it to the Finals.

Posted by Kit Stolz | April 14, 2008 2:03 PM

Yesterday he played Tim Duncan, perhaps the best big man in the game, straight up.

Apparently, Gasol has always played best against Duncan. I don't remember where I read this, or what the explanation was.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | April 14, 2008 2:14 PM

It would be an unbelievable series between two closely matched teams, but I'd take the Lakers in a Lakers-Celts series.

I think the Pistons have a fair chance of knocking the Cs out of the playoffs. I give Boston no better than a 60% shot at getting by Detroit. But if the Celtics do get to the finals, I'm hoping for the Lakers -- or anybody but the Spurs. The Lakers (ditto Houston, ditto Phoenix, ditto Dallas, ditto NO) don't scare me in the least. Defense wins championships, baby. That's why San Antonio -- although their dynasty is clearly on the downward slope -- still scares me. They may well have one more banner in them. The other team I find somewhat scary is Utah. Now that's a team that matches up well against Boston.

Posted by Jasper | April 14, 2008 2:16 PM

I'm interested to know what Matthew thinks of the (now set in stone) Wizards-Cavs series, which, given this is the 3rd consecutive year for the series, should be a nice rivalry.

The Cavs have definitely not looked good since the trade. More important, I think Lebron has been playing with a bunch of small injuries for a while now, and hasn't been able to rest because the rest of the team is so bad. He's definitely got a back injury. He looks beat up and tired -- going to the Finals last year, then the World Championships during the summer, now having to carry the team again all year. I don't think it spells victory in the playoffs this year.

You have to remember LBJ is 260 pounds and averages the second highest MPG in the NBA after Iverson (over 40 MPG) -- this has been true ever since he entered the league. He also plays a very active perimeter-type game. Unless he learns to post up, play inside, and gets on a team that can afford to play him a bit less, his body is going to gradually wear down. It's kind of amazing it hasn't happened yet.

Posted by mq | April 14, 2008 2:38 PM

30% sounds about right to me. I agree they would be favored in every series including the Finals, but in addition to potentially losing the ECF to the Pistons, I think there is also a small chance they get upset in the first couple rounds (small but slightly higher than usual for a team with this record, since we haven't seen them in the Playoffs yet).

Posted by DTM | April 14, 2008 3:14 PM

Jasper,
Be careful what you wish for. Hollinger has the Lakers with the #7 defensive efficiency in the league (Utah is 11). The give up a lot of points because they have the 6th fastest pace in the league. Add to the fact that one of their best interior defenders missed half the year, but will be available for the Finals means that the Lakers won't be pushovers. Defensively, they match up pretty well if Bynum guards KG, Odom on Pierce and KB24 on Jesus. Throw in the coaching advantage of Jackson over Rivers and it's even worse. The Cs haven't played the new look Lakers yet, so you have to throw out the head-to-head records. The Spurs didn't just win with defense, Pop is an extraordinary coach.

Posted by Mo | April 14, 2008 3:29 PM

Jasper,
Be careful what you wish for. Hollinger has the Lakers with the #7 defensive efficiency in the league (Utah is 11). The give up a lot of points because they have the 6th fastest pace in the league. Add to the fact that one of their best interior defenders missed half the year, but will be available for the Finals means that the Lakers won't be pushovers. Defensively, they match up pretty well if Bynum guards KG, Odom on Pierce and KB24 on Jesus. Throw in the coaching advantage of Jackson over Rivers and it's even worse. The Cs haven't played the new look Lakers yet, so you have to throw out the head-to-head records. The Spurs didn't just win with defense, Pop is an extraordinary coach.

Posted by Mo | April 14, 2008 3:31 PM

Be careful what you wish for.

I am careful what I wish for. That's why I'm wishing for Kobe et al. Doubt it'll happen, though.

Throw in the coaching advantage of Jackson over Rivers and it's even worse.

Even I could have brought home some banners were I coaching the likes of MJ and Shaq.

Posted by Jasper | April 14, 2008 5:39 PM

"Throw in the coaching advantage of Jackson over Rivers and it's even worse.

Even I could have brought home some banners were I coaching the likes of MJ and Shaq."

Yeah, but Doc Rivers probably wound have found a way to blow it.

Posted by too many steves | April 14, 2008 6:11 PM

Even I could have brought home some banners were I coaching the likes of MJ and Shaq.

Isn't that what Doug Collins and Del Harris/Kurt Rambis thought? It didn't work out so well in practice.

Posted by Mo | April 15, 2008 8:47 AM