The Mood

An interesting CQ article takes a look at Dennis Shulman's efforts to unseat Rep. Scott Garrett in the New Jersey 5. Among other things, Shulman is a rabbi, which is kind of neat. They're shifting their rating from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored" and remark that "Garrett, who is seeking a fourth term in office, was held to a career general election-low of 11 percent in 2006, but that election season was marked by nationwide anti-Republican sentiment. "

It's hard for me to see that being much comfort to Garrett. As best I can tell, the nationwide sentiment is only more anti-Republican than it was back then. The Bush administration is less popular than ever, and as I noted last week the remaining congressional Republicans made the odd decision to respond to the voters repudiating their policies by sticking with the same unpopular policies. Just take a look at the Democratic edge in party ID.

Comments

I don't understand this general triumphalism. Everyone acts like all the competitive races have already gone Dem, and we can now look at long-shots. This would be fine if Obama was leading by 8, but he's not. And it is clear the corporate media have decided the election will be decided on "character," pitting war hero and straight-talker against anti-American closet Muslim. Am I the only one concerned??

Posted by John McCain: More of the Same | April 21, 2008 2:27 PM

If nothing else, the traditional Republican tactic of painting rivals as "anti-Semites" will be hard to pull off against a rabbi.

Posted by fostert | April 21, 2008 2:37 PM

I wouldn't get your hopes up on this one - this is northwest Jersey, about as rural and conservative as the state gets. If Garrett wasn't the raging right-winger of the NJ delegation, the Democrats wouldn't have any shot in this district. Even so, they don't have much of one.

Posted by Devin McCullen | April 21, 2008 4:38 PM

Well, that's not entirely true, Devin. While NJ5 does have a lot of NW Jersey (most of Sussex and Warren counties), it also has a lot of Bergen County, which is about as suburban as you can get. I grew up in NJ5, back when Marge Roukema represented the district, and it was always a pretty moderate district. I understand it was redistricted in 2000 to make it more conservative, but still I think Garrett is more conservative than the district is - which isn't to say that the Democrat will win, but rather that it isn't out of the question.

Posted by Al | April 21, 2008 6:29 PM

It's not meaningful to say Garrett's performance in 2006 was a "career low." He's only been a congressman since 2002. So, essentially, what that means he won by less in 2006 than in 2004 and 2002-- a very common condition, since 2006 was a much weaker year for Republicans nationally. Garrett nonetheless won all three races with double digits.

And the 2006 Democratic nominee was relatively high profile: he was Jim McGreevey's former spokesman and communications director. This year's nominee is a clinical psychologist (and rabbi) with no political experience. Don't look for a Democratic congressman from the NJ 5th anytime soon.

Posted by Josh Barro | April 21, 2008 7:25 PM

"If nothing else, the traditional Republican tactic of painting rivals as "anti-Semites" will be hard to pull off against a rabbi.

Posted by fostert | April 21, 2008 2:37 PM"

I would like to see them try just for all of the WTF moments it would generate.

Posted by Reality Man | April 21, 2008 9:50 PM

Re: Josh Barro

It is not entirely true that Shulman has no political experience. He has been an active political voice and a leader in his community for a long time, and even more so since he became an ordained rabbi. Garrett is a career politician, and he has made a lot of enemies on both sides of the aisle in Congress, and is largely impotent when it comes to passing legislation. Shulman actually has an opportunity to do some good for the district.

I think that the only reason Scott Garrett has a chance of being reelected is because he's a very low-profile Congressman. He says nothing, does nothing, keeps his head low and hopes that inertia will keep him in office. If Shulman can generate publicity (which his life-story could easily garner some interest), he can really show the more moderate Republicans of Bergen County that he would represent them better than Garrett.

Posted by CD 5 Voter | April 22, 2008 12:29 PM

Re: Josh Barro

It is not entirely true that Shulman has no political experience. He has been an active political voice and a leader in his community for a long time, and even more so since he became an ordained rabbi. Garrett is a career politician, and he has made a lot of enemies on both sides of the aisle in Congress, and is largely impotent when it comes to passing legislation. Shulman actually has an opportunity to do some good for the district.

I think that the only reason Scott Garrett has a chance of being reelected is because he's a very low-profile Congressman. He says nothing, does nothing, keeps his head low and hopes that inertia will keep him in office. If Shulman can generate publicity (and his life's story could easily garner some interest), he can really show the more moderate Republicans of Bergen County that he would represent them better than Garrett.

Posted by CD 5 Voter | April 22, 2008 12:34 PM