Victory

In a TAP Online column, I make the point that the surge has already succeeded:

General David Petraeus' testimony Tuesday and Wednesday of this week will be another chapter in U.S. foreign policy's long-running "is the surge working?" debate. The General and Ambassador Ryan Crocker will offer up some good news counterpoints to the not-so-good news out of Basra from the last weekend of March. But in the ways that matter, there's no need to debate in the present tense -- the surge isn't working, it's already worked, and the question is what the Democrats plan to do about it.

To evaluate the surge, you have to consider its goals. Peter Feaver, who spent years working on the National Security Council on Iraq issues as a specialist on domestic public opinion, has explained in Commentary the administration's desire "to develop and implement a workable strategy that could be handed over to Bush's successor." Or as Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joe Biden less charitably put it there's no plan at all other than "to muddle through and hand the problem off to his successor."

The real question, I argue, is whether or not the next Democratic president will resist taking the bait. The "residual forces" issue is still lurking out there, and if President Obama (or perhaps Clinton) agrees to grab the baton and take responsibility for Iraq it'll be a major blunder.

U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl Jeremy M. Giacomino

Comments

someone more clever than myself should insert some kind of robot witticism here.

Posted by Slothrop | April 8, 2008 11:56 AM

Well, I certainly don't put much faith in Hilary Satanus on this issue...

But I'm really, really waiting to seem what our great golden hero Saint Barack will do, perhaps indicated by any comments of his at the Petraeus Hearing.

Remember that Nixon got elected in 1968 partly because he campaigned on the promise that he had a "secret plan" to end the Vietnam War. His "secret plan" turned out to be continuing the War for enough years that people ended up mostly blaming him and the Republicans for the eventual disaster, strongly contributing to their total political collapse in 1974.

Why do I suspect that this is also Saint Barack's "secret plan" for the crazy Iraq War?...

Posted by RKU | April 8, 2008 12:07 PM

Samantha Power and Colin Kahl are telling us Obama will be leaving many thousands of soldiers in Iraq for years. But, Matthew will not even discuss the issue. Why have I voted for Obama, if he is not going to get us out of Iraq?

Why not explain this problem, Matthew?

Posted by Jennifer | April 8, 2008 12:12 PM

guess i'm a dunce but....WTF does this mean?

The "residual forces" issue is still lurking out there, and if President Obama (or perhaps Clinton) agrees to grab the baton and take responsibility for Iraq it'll be a major blunder.

Posted by HyperIon | April 8, 2008 1:19 PM

Of course, events before November are likely to re-clarify the situation whether the Iraq hawks like it or not -- specifically, Iraq's October elections, which al-Sadr is likely to win unless al-Maliki tries to prevent him from participating (in which case the Shiite civil war will be on again with a vengeance).

Posted by Bruce Moomaw | April 8, 2008 2:04 PM

Bruce is right. The US is not going to be the one to decide when the US leaves.

Sadr and the rest of the Iraqis (and Iran) will make that decision.

If the Iraqi nationalists sweep the provincial elections this fall, and the parliamentary elections next year, it's over for the US. Either the US leaves or it gets thrown out.

That's even assuming Bush and Cheney don't start a war with Iran - in which case the US will be thrown out within ninety days.

Posted by Richard Steven Hack | April 8, 2008 7:09 PM

I've been supporting Obama in large part because I'm convinced that as soon as he wins the nomination he'll break the news to all the Jennifers out there that he's not calling for an increase of 90,000 in our infantry forces in order to beef up our presence in Germany.

Is it possible to get some action in Vegas on this imminent attack on Iran? I'd like to beef up my retirement fund.

Posted by Robert Powell | April 9, 2008 8:03 AM