« Too Much Parking | Main | Just Like Moses »

Everybody talks like they've got something to say

29 May 2008 05:11 pm

[Alyssa]

Working in Washington, for a company that specializes in its coverage of American politics, it's been easy for me to believe that absolutely no one, anywhere, has anything really new to say about this election. Which is why it was so refreshing to read this piece by David Runiman in the London Review of Books. It's worth taking a look at just to be reminded how...I won't say weird, different, maybe, our election process looks when it's viewed across the pond.

I don't agree with everything Runciman has to say, but I thought his best observation was this: there is more and better writing being done about this election than in any previous contest, especially by non-traditional media outlets, but none of that argument seems to be swinging voting patterns in the way an endorsement from an influential newspaper might have in the past. He writes:

The BBC, whose coverage of British politics looks increasingly lame, has been hopeless at Obama v. Clinton. It’s not enough any longer for a correspondent to paint some local colour about the weather or the quirks of the voting system before asking a seasoned observer from the New York Times or Washington Post to explain to a British audience what it all means. The seasoned observers no longer have even the appearance of a monopoly on wisdom. They are just shouting to be heard like everyone else....

At the start of the campaigning season, the hope was widely voiced that the 2008 election offered an opportunity to reflect on what had gone wrong in the United States, and to think seriously about how things might be different. Much of the increasingly regretful comment that is being passed on how things have turned out reflects the fact that this opportunity has not been taken. Each side blames the other, for dwelling on race, or gender, or youth, or age, or hope, or fear, or the future, or the past, and imagines some alternative campaign in which the real issues would be debated in serious and open-ended terms....But in truth, it is absurd for anyone to claim to offer a plausible alternative to the way this election has been conducted. For all the elegance, intelligence and wit on display in the many tens of thousands of words I have read over the past few months, nothing that’s been said appears to have made any real difference to how most people see the candidates.

He tends to attribute that to the simple din produced by the number of new media outlets. But I wonder if it's more likely that, as the blogosphere matures and grows, it tends to reflect public opinion, much as a poll improves with a larger sample size, rather than to guide it. And I don't think that's necessarily a loss, if what the blogosphere pushes the media as a whole to produce is more informed debate rather than a public swayed to one particular outcome.

Share This

Comments (30)

For all the elegance, intelligence and wit on display in the many tens of thousands of words I have read over the past few months, nothing that’s been said appears to have made any real difference to how most people see the candidates.

Well, I think this is just extraordinarily wrong. But it's wrongness is a difficult thing to establish empirically, because it is my sense that so much of what has been written has made a difference that it is hard to pick out clearly identifiable causal chains.

Runiman's conclusion is an overreaction to the new, unaccustomed feeling of powerless experienced by members of the traditional major print media, whose voice used to be so much more powerful than it is now among the din. But the din matters tremendously. Just because people like Runiman have had more difficulty getting their voice heard, or provoking a noticeable response in the election, is no reason not to recognize that hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of other voices are producing little raindrop effects that start locally, spread and produce some effect.

Hillary for you and me
Bring back our democracy
Vote from sea to shining sea
Everyone for Hillary!

Here's the Clinton song Tim K's referring to: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Sjc52Pbrtc

And a dueling Obama product:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuXqy40F4Co

In deference to Matt's point, I offer these videos without comment. You can make up your own mind.

Motherfuckers act like they forgot about the Atlantic bloggers.

Well, I think this is just extraordinarily wrong...Just because people like Runiman have had more difficulty getting their voice heard...is no reason not to recognize that...maybe millions of other voices are producing...effects that start locally, spread and produce some effect.

Maybe. As Dan said, it's impossible to establish empirically. My feeling is that people in general (like me) tend to gravitate toward media sources that share their existing views. Based on that, I'd agree with Runciman and suggest that non-traditional media are rather more likely to reinforce those views than alter them.

Runciman writes:

At the start of the campaigning season, the hope was widely voiced that the 2008 election offered an opportunity to reflect on what had gone wrong in the United States, and to think seriously about how things might be different.

Let's get realistic here. It is stupid to think that Obama, for example, is going to do a big set-piece speech like his Race speech every day, let alone every week or every month. I think Runciman's real complaint is that campaigns are boring.

The Democrats are simply divided along identity politics lines, with blacks and the Stuff White People Like set on one side, and the union members, Hispanics, and Asians on the other.

As time goes by and the public learns more about Obama (e.g., Rev. Wright), nobody sees any reason to change.

... nothing that’s been said appears to have made any real difference to how most people see the candidates.

Based the people I talk to/overhear, it may be that many, if not most, don't regularly read a newspaper or watch the national news. They don't read news blogs. They barely notice the headlines at the store or on their way through the search portals.

Fortunately, I have the impression that many of these same people don't vote or aren't registered to, so we may not have as many people voting blindly as I fear.

Not quite sure how to say this, or if it even makes sense, but there seems to be a hierarchical shift that's taken place. In 2004, I would have said the hierarchical arrangement was 1. BushCo (because of the strength of the bully pulpit) 2. the media 3. Dem candidate John Kerry. I put Kerry last because his lackluster persona gave the press the upper hand in the public's perception of him. The public overall could sense the relative power position of each of the three.

Today, I see it as 1. Obama 2. the media 3. BushCo, HillBillery, & McLame. The difference, I think, lies in how I once heard leadership defined: it's having a vision and the ability to articulate that vision. Obama fits that bill and his effectiveness at this allows him to define himself and control his own image; he can out-communicate the media. The media (and pundits) sense this pecking order, maybe it's a subconscious sense, and thus they can't control public perceptions so much. By default must do more traditional 'reporting' and less influencing, at least in Obama's case. Likewise, in the HillBillery's case, it oozes negative, grating vibes that overpowers anything the media could do on their own and thus she becomes her own worse enemy and the press is somewhat on the sidelines.

I don't think it's the blogosphere making an impact. Too many peeps I know don't read newspapers or blogs and are taken in by Obama's positive persona. The same thing with Clinton's negative persona.

I made up my mind the first day I ever heard of Obama. I guess it was October 2006? Something like that. I sat up all night (till 5am on a Tuesday, during exam period) watching clips of his speeches on youtube.

Before then I thought Hillary would be great. But then I saw that convention speech, and then I saw so many more speeches, and there was nothing left to say. Except try and convince everyone else.

One thing's for sure; if one side talks and the other side doesn't, the first side wins.

It may be that most people are like me and make up their minds early, after seeking out a lot of information. But most people who don't think about it wait until they hear the thing that makes the light bulb go off. If you want your side to win, you've got to keep talking, hoping that something you say is that light bulb. Then as more people begin to make up their (unchaning) minds, they do it in your favour.

"For all the elegance, intelligence and wit on display in the many tens of thousands of words I have read over the past few months, nothing that’s been said appears to have made any real difference to how most people see the candidates."

Ever read Thucydides? The speeches never (or almost never) change anyone's minds. And yet there they are, the most prominent part of Thucycides' history of the war.

The results of the primaries and caucuses have basically followed demographic lines, but it didn't become clear until a ways into the primary season that it was clear to what extent it would or would not follow these lines.

What I mean is that it was fairly clear early on that Obama would do better among blacks, urban elite types, and in caucus states where his organizational power would be strong, but it certainly wasn't clear to me that the extent of his strength in these areas would be enough for him to win.

Obama himself is a very interesting person, but the press has largely let David Axelrod dictate the shape of his life story as a boring, bland Triumph of the American Way.

For example, after months of my suggesting to Matt Y. that he really ought to read Obama's 1995 autobiography because it contradicts all the bland, boring stuff Axelrod has been hyping about Obama's life since 2004 -- if you read it carefully. So, Matt finally read it. Then Matt, normally the world's most fertile instantaneous opinion-monger, mulled over what to say about his candidate's autobiography for several months, then finally put up one posting saying only that he learned from Obama's 442 page "Story of Race and Inheritance" that Obama was a good prose stylist! (Which he is, but we already knew that.)

Here's what I wrote about Obama's memoirs in 2007 and it's certainly held up better than all the bland, boring stuff about the "postracial" Obama everybody else churned out:

http://www.amconmag.com/2007/2007_03_12/feature.html

I agree with Dan Kervick. The only way you can come to conclusion that (difinitively) nothing that has been said or done in this election has had an impact on how we see the candidates or view politics in general, is to have a strong presumption towards the status quo.

This seems like the type of conclusion that would only really be appropriate in retrospect (say four years at the minimum). This seems like putting a kettle of cold water on a hot burner, waiting twenty seconds, putting our finger in the water, and concluding that heat has no effect on water. It just seems vastly premature to conclude that none of the current dialog has had a real effect.

Runciman's point about the BBC coverage being hopeless is spot on. I have been following the primary season obsessively since January.

I started off wanting Hilary to win. I was suprised by Iowa, but also disbelieving of BBC/MSM coverage which suggested that Obama was going to win. So I sought out the blogosphere to work out what exactly was going on.

So I have known since the end of February that Obama was going to be the nominee (because I can do math), but this fact has not been reflected in the coverage. The MSM have a vested interest in keeping the horses running for ratings purposes, and the clueless BBC correspondents have followed the MSM consensus.

But Runciman is also right to say that no one has changed their minds, at least not since the end of January. All through the pastor disaster, all of HRCs BS about how she is 'vetted', 'passed the commander in chief test' how she is 'more electable' it is demographics that have determined elections. Sure, the Clinton have helped Obama by pushing an extra 10 - 20 per cent of African Americans into his column through their crass dog whistle racism, and they have benefitted in Appalachia as a result, but apart from that, no one has moved since early February. We have just had to sit through the tedium of the primary process while the math has remained the math..... Bring on next tuesday!

Obama, Obama etc......

Sailer: For the thousandth time you've flogged your review of Obama's memoirs. I went and read them again. For the life of me, I don't see why you keep urging people over and over to read the review. There's just not a whole lot there. Get over yourself.

"Sure, the Clinton have helped Obama by pushing an extra 10 - 20 per cent of African Americans into his column through their crass dog whistle racism, and they have benefitted in Appalachia as a result, but apart from that, no one has moved since early February."

That is a major change.

That polarization works big time for Hillary from here on in.

And now an all woman's group in California has already raised $400,000 specifically to fund Hillary's fight all the way to the convention.

The rest of the Democratic party is helpless to stop this, with Pelosi coming out with pathetic threats to "step in" to try to bring the nominating process to an end.

Big news, and nobody but Rachel Maddow covering it.

Replay of 2000

Nancy Pelosi = Katherine Harris

David Axelrod = Karl Rove

Nobama = George Bush

DNC = RNC

Clinton Cabinet Members for Nobama = Benedict Arnold or Judas

Replay of 2000?

Not quite.

The Hillary is the one who stealing it this time, and is the one playing the dirty tricks.

Proof that Hillary has committed the Republican playbook to heart:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/incoming.html

Well, my advantage is that I have no TV and don't buy newspapers or news magazines.

So I've not heard any Obama or Clinton speeches, or watched any debates, except what might appear on clips from "The Daily Show" or the occasional YouTube video referenced here.

So I've gone on the basis of the candidates public statements on their Web sites, their quotes from speeches referenced on the Net, and news articles gleaned from the Google News page or wherever.

And that enabled me to clearly discern who was where on what issues, and thus who was wrong on what issues.

Plus I have the advantage of being an anarchist, so I don't view any politicians through rose-colored glasses, unlike Matt and most of the rest of the bloggers and those who comment on them.

So my conclusions: McCain is a lunatic, Clinton an asshole, Obama - not so much of either but no great shakes in his own right.

I'm more amused at how the Democrats, who should have found this election to be a slam-dunk - like the last two should have been - have ONCE AGAIN managed to screw themselves in the ass by allowing a Clinton to be a nominee.

What WERE you people thinking?

The D in Democrat stands for the word Dumb. With the current DNC leadership, they are incapable of running a winning election. For once, Hack is correct. They have managed to mangle this election and pick a loser in Obama!

Nobama is wrong. Obama would have been a winner had they locked out Clinton - and had Obama been a little smarter about Iran and Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Yeah, that was a pretty interesting article, until Runciman revealed his own bias (in this case, pro-Clinton) and started spinning off into his own realm of justification and nullification, etc. Check out this nugget:

"As Clinton has shifted her ground and the basis of her campaign, from heir presumptive to picked-on woman to plucky and indefatigable underdog, it’s evidence of just how adaptable and determined she is."

See, kids? It's not about intellectual dishonesty, blatant pandering or polarization politics, it's about "adaptability". And even after he touches on the dreadful gas-tax holiday incident, he still admits to wanting Team Clinton to win, just to stick it to those insufferable "Obamaphiles". Sorry, Alyssa, but I think this guy is basically another shill, this one from across the pond, who turned what could have been an interesting argument about new media into another generalization-filled rant, this time from somebody who really doesn't know what the hell he's talking about - and he started this article off addressing that very fact. WTF?

Runciman's most interesting point was about how bad the polling is in the United States. He says that the sample sizes are much too small so that the polls are crapped, but polls aren't used to actually gauge public opinion, but as part of public relations and marketing. Among other things, these two insights explain the entire career of Mark Penn. I've studied polling, and the sample sizes used by US polling firms have seem to be too small to me, but it was interesting to have my suspicion confirmed through comparison with the sample sizes used by non-US firms.

Sailer had a great insightful article. Published over a year ago, on March 27th, 2007 - heralding the real Obama, with the Rev Wright sort of liberal and racist problems Obama has. Which the MSM totally glossed over in their "He's the Black Messiah!!" phase.

Anyone knowing the sort El Cid is can understand why he is threatened by the sort of article Sailer published that put objective scrutiny on Obama. Steve Sailer was doing his job when the MSM wasn't, stating truths the El Cid sorts wish would stay hidden about BO.

Dunciman has no clue what he's talking about wrt polling. When he points out that polls have been wrong outside of the margin of error far too often, he somehow fails to realize that this, by definition of margin of error, cannot be explained by a too-small sample size.

What really took the cake was the complaint that “for a country the size of the United States” the sample size was too small. The size of the United States has zero to do with how large the sample size should be.

nobama = Tim K

Go for it, Timmeh!!

Obamabots rave about his wins in the caucuses. Over 32 million people voted in the primaries. Only 1 million people voted in the caucuses. Obama has the lead in delegates when fewer voters have been allowed to participate. The idea that he brings in more voters is false.

El Cid, just ignore Sailer. Just because his vocabulary is bigger than David Duke's doesn't make him any smarter. You can't engage Duke and you can't engage Sailer. If he had to admit to anything good about black people beyond one's that reinforce old stereotypes, his brain would explode so his whole life is based around not having his brain explode.

Any Brit's being this in the tank for Clinton just makes me stop paying attention. Basically what he's saying is he either learned nothing from Blair or is a closet neocon. Does he want to fix all that Bush has fucked up in the last 8 years, and hopefully some of what Republicans in general have fucked in the last 30, by picking the American version of Blair: an ostensibly smart, hard-nosed, center-left leader who'll make things work, but will turn out to be a coward, willfully ignorant of history, in his/her foreign policy and wishy-washy, not terribly effective, and further right than you thought domestically?


Comments closed June 12, 2008.

Copyright © 2008 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved.