A neat spreadsheet from Nicholas Beaudrot uses demographics to predict Barack Obama's likely vote share in November, then looks at each incumbent Republican member to see which are sitting in districts where Obama's likely to do well. It's a pretty large number of districts.
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Incumbents Beware
27 May 2008 12:12 pm
Comments (4)
The spreadsheet is cool, missing only the number of registered (or better yet, active) voters in each district with which to run the numbers ourselves.
I wonder if his "implied nationwide" of 50.08% is really for all voters? And, why is it that so many non-college educated caucasians vote against their own economic interests?
There's a separate post for open seats.
And yes, 50.08 is what you get when you take those percentages and plug them into the 2004 exit poll percentages. Given that the college/non-college split was almost 50-50, and African-Americans & Hispanics vote Democratic and are less likely to have a college degree, this implies that white non-college voters are more Republican than white college voters.
"no college degree" were 58% of the electorate in 2004. You overall point stands but it was a 16 point spread not 'almost 50-50.'
Comments closed June 10, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
Kind of a waste, they don't show how Obama is projected in open Republican seats like those of Jerry Weller or Vito Fossella.
Posted by jimjimjimjim | May 27, 2008 3:28 PM