I'm calling this one for Clinton, the official exit polls have her winning women and narrowly winning men. That means Clinton wins.
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Indiana
06 May 2008 07:11 pm
Comments (30)
It's too early to call anything. Here’s a good summary of some reasons to consider supporting Obama in the upcoming primaries. Share with anyone who’s still undecided.
http://acropolisreview.com/2008/04/top-reasons-to-give-barack-obama-your.html
But Pseudonymous, that's her BASE
Q: How do the popular vote totals stack up tonight even if you use the fuzzy math Clinton employed the day after the PA primaries? It's the narrative she picked, and now she's stuck with it.
Don't discount the crucial transvestite vote.
I think the critical swing vote of the dual-gendered is being overlooked here.
robot polls haven't even opened yet
As they say on Fleet Street:
"It's the dittoheads wot won it!"
Our long national nightmare continues! Hurrah!
Haven't the exit polls been wrong in every contest to date?
But Hillary was always leading in Indiana, right? Does it seem fair to credit that now to Rush Limbaugh?
MSNBC is going with the "too early to call" characterization
NEWS FLASH: Obama wins NC
in IN. This seems transparent. Since it's not "too close to call," that telegraphs that they have Hillary as the winner.
Having said that, MSNBS had an exit poll breakdown showing Hillary winning among white women by 61 to 39. Am I wrong, or isn't that closer than expected?
As in several other crucial primaries, the CNN exit poll seems to be "hiding" the black/non-black crosstabs. Guess they weren't very significant or illuminating...
Wonder if the whole MSM and most of the bloggers will "accidentally" fail to report them, as is frequently the case. Guess that means Steve Sailer's monopoly will continue, and I'll have to go over to his blogsite to discover them...
Don't hate me because I'm beautiful.
Clinton will almost certainly win IN, but most of the counted votes are from the South and East so that lead will come down quite a bit. Judging by the early splits and the exit polls, I'd say it's a 4-6% margin.
I hadn't really bought the Rush/operation chaos meme, but I've seen some exit poll numbers suggesting that crossover McCain supporters may end up literally being the margin in IN.
What's the MOE on an exit poll?
Rough projection suggests Obama will net another 32,000 out of the remaining 80% of Marion County (Indianapolis) to come in. There are also no votes in from Lake County (Gary), and only 1% from Monroe County (Bloomington/IU). Maybe it's still up for grabs if turnout was high enough in those three areas.
The Death March to Denver continues, as expected. Can't somebody please just declare victory and go home? Paging Sen. Aiken...
With 41% in, and the split 56/44, I'm surprised they haven't called it. I imagine they're waiting for some initial NW Indiana results before they call it?
(I'm sure as soon as I hit post they'll call it and I'll look like a jackass)
They haven't called it because there's it's 54/46 with no votes in from Chicagoland, and plenty of votes left to count in the college towns, Indy, and the North and West suburbs (Hamilton and Hendricks) where Obama seems to be doing well so far. We'll see.
Q: How do the popular vote totals stack up tonight even if you use the fuzzy math Clinton employed the day after the PA primaries? It's the narrative she picked, and now she's stuck with it.
Posted by Zach | May 6, 2008 7:23 PM
No, no, no. In Clintonland, you only have to stick with a narrative as long as it works. As soon as it doesn't, you change it and erase the old narrative from the books.
What's the MOE on an exit poll?
Extrapolating the population you exit polled to the population that actually voted, just like any other poll.
Clinton is only up 4% with 71% reporting. Holy smokes!
Lake County, with 0% of precincts reporting, is the second largest county in Indiana and by far the most black. I expect it will be over 10% of the total vote in the primary. If Obama wins it by a 2-to-1 margin, he'll gain about 40K votes.
This thing isn't over yet.
Come on Indiana!
This is actually really interesting.
You have Matt predicting a Clinton victory, yet Zogby predicted an Obama victory.
Both are usually wrong.
Something's gotta give...
CNN just said Obama needs about 55% of the outstanding votes — including Lake County and the as yet uncounted portion of Monroe and Marion counties' votes, all Obama strongholds — to win the state; Clinton's margin is down to 30k right now with still almost a quarter of the votes to go.
I'm looking at the NYTimes map - I love how it's easy to see where South Bend, West Lafayette, and Bloomington are on the map.
So, anyone know the population of Gary, say compared to Indianapolis? Obama behind by 35k, with zero votes from Gary in . . . can he make up that margin?
Gary has about 90-100K people, but Lake County has several other good-sized cities: (Hammond, Crown Point, Merrillville). I'd expect about 120K total votes from that county.
The problem for Obama is that Clinton is doing well so far in the rest of Northwest Indiana, which leads me to believe that Obama will lose too many votes in the suburban parts of the county for Gary to put him over the top. But it's going to be very close.
Well, aside from the spin of winning Indiana after he conceded it and Clinton claimed it, which would be awesome, Obama still gets maybe two more delegates from there than Clinton gets, according to Matt's other post.
So Clinton gets a tiny handful of popular votes which does nothing for her and actually loses on delegates.
Nonetheless, she will press on to the convention and beyond with lawsuits. She wants McCain to win because she thinks she'll be a shoe-in in 2012.
Comments closed May 20, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
And by Peteymath, every slack-jawed dittohead who followed Uncle Rush's instructions to the letter now counts as a Democratic PARTY voter for Hillary.
Posted by pseudonymous in nc | May 6, 2008 7:17 PM