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National Suicide

23 May 2008 12:53 pm

Jeff Goldberg deems this dimwitted column arguing that Muslims have a proclivity for "national suicide" to be convincing. In fact, as Farley and Drum argue it's silly. In particular, anyone who really thinks that Saddam Hussein "could have avoided war and conquest by allowing UN inspectors to search for (the apparently non-existent) weapons of mass destruction wherever they wanted" is so far out of touch with reality that you'd have to worry he was the delusional fanatic with whom no compromise is possible.

Beyond that, all these efforts to convince people that the Iranian leadership is longing for its own destruction are based, it seems to me, on trying to get people to forget that the Iranian Revolution is almost thirty years old. Sure, in 1981 we might have needed to guess about whether or not the revolutionary leadership was suicidal and self-destructive, but surely the fact that they've never chosen martyrdom over survival over the past several decades is dispositive here.

Anyways, check out this column.

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Comments (81)

Yes, it's a particularly idiotic thesis in the case of Iran. It goes all the way back to those who argued that Ayatollah Khomeini provoked the United States because he wanted be a martyr. As was often pointed out in response, religious leaders with ample opportunities to fulfill their martrydom complexes don't often survive into their seventies.

It's amazing that this idiocy survives. Ahmadinejad may [or may not] be nuts, but the state he controls is a very rational actor.

Masada anyone? Goldberg is truly a dimwit. Matt, you should pressure your editors to get comments on his blog so we can slap him around in person.

Matt,

Upon first reading your stuff several years ago, I thought you were one of the few "reasonable" bloggers.

Now, I don't know.

You have a disturbing proclivity to trivialize important work by those who don't agree with you. In this case, your criticism of Amnon Rubinstein's column rises to the level of farce. Anyone who knows Rubinstein knows he is hardly part of the "right-wing" neocon conspiracy. But your increasingly "Israelis are never right" mentality hurts you.

Rubinstein is an well-known and thoughtful Israeli academic and former minister. To shuffle his concerns aside as "dimwitted" is both arrogant and blinkered. Need I remind you that Rubinstein is a bit better informed about the Middle East (he lives there) than someone who makes his living on his couch in DC.

The second part of your somewhat-newfound high partisanship is to conflate everything into "good vs. bad on the issues i care about today." Rubinstein speaks not only of Iran but of Gaza. And he has an up-front view of that reality.

I believe your book's title is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Just not in the way you intended.

Best,

EK

The Prospect column is excellent. This is the best take-down of the right-wing appeasement posturing I've seen.

Let me see -- who's the dimwit. Is it Yglesias -- who can't speak Hebrew or Arabic and has a very limited view of the world. Or is it Rubenstein, a Meretz-party member. Oh lord, to even have this discussion demeans these words!!!


Rubinstein's political career began when he founded Shinui after the Yom Kippur War. Shinui joined Yigal Yadin's Democratic Movement to form Dash. In the 1977 elections, Dash won 15 seats in the Knesset. Dash's victory came at the expense of the Alignment; for the first time in the 29 years since the founding of the modern state of Israel, the right-wing formed the government. However, Rubinstein opposed Dash's participation in Menachem Begin's Likud government coalition, and Shinui broke away from Dash. Rubinstein retained his seat in the 1981 elections, though Shinui was reduced to two seats. After winning three seats in the 1984 elections Shinui were invited into the governing coalition, and Rubinstein was appointed Minister of Communications. Rubinstein was re-elected again in 1988, but Shinui were left out of the government.

Prior to the 1992 elections Shinui merged with Shulamit Aloni's Ratz and Zionist-socialist Mapam to form Meretz, a dovish, social-democratic liberal party. Meretz joined Yitzhak Rabin's government in 1992, and Rubinstein was chosen as Minister of Energy and Infrastructure. However, early into his term he became Minister of Education instead, replacing Shulamit Aloni who was forced to resign from office under pressure from religious factors, following statements she had made about teaching Evolution versus Creationism.

EK wrote: "Let me see -- who's the dimwit"

I think you've answered that.

EK,

Matthew begins his post with the usual red-meat and snark for which he is known (while also linking to more thorough discussions) but follows up with a substantive second paragraph. Your argument, on the other hand, amounts to Rubinstein knows more than you, he is older and wiser and did xyz, etc. Nobody is calling into question his resume, Matt is pointing out one of the fundamental flaws with the theory that teh arabz are teh suicideal.

It would be easier to come up with lots of examples that Jews have a proclivity to suicide. As in 6,000,000 dead in the Holocaust. A passivity unto death.

Rubinstein's column errs greatly by including Saddam Hussein and Arafat as evidence. Hussein, in fact, allowed unfettered inspections, and the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis is (horrifyingly) "in medias res" and both sides have been accused of blinkered intransigence.

As far as the Taliban is concerned they aren't simply Muslim: they are Afghanis. Afghanistan has a history of not yielding to outside pressure, confident in its mountains as defenders. The Taliban, it's unfortunate to note, still exist and fight on. Crazy, blinkered, violent, and still alive. Not your usual description of suicides.

"Upon first reading your stuff several years ago, I thought you were one of the few "reasonable" bloggers.

Now, I don't know.

You have a disturbing proclivity to trivialize important work by those who don't agree with you. In this case, your criticism of Amnon Rubinstein's column rises to the level of farce."

It's fun to watch the Yglesias train wreck though. I can't seem to look away.

It would be easier to come up with lots of examples that Jews have a proclivity to suicide. As in 6,000,000 dead in the Holocaust. A passivity unto death.

Rubinstein's column errs greatly by including Saddam Hussein and Arafat as evidence. Hussein, in fact, allowed unfettered inspections, and the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis is (horrifyingly) "in medias res" and both sides have been accused of blinkered intransigence.

As far as the Taliban is concerned they aren't simply Muslim: they are Afghanis. Afghanistan has a history of not yielding to outside pressure, confident in its mountains as defenders. The Taliban, it's unfortunate to note, still exist and fight on. Crazy, blinkered, violent, and still alive. Not your usual description of suicides.

Firsties on rejecting and denouncing Jeffrey Davis's first paragraph.

I agree with Matt probably 95% of the time, but his claim that it's "delusional" to believe the Iraq invasion wouldn't have happened without credible WMD claims is the most incorrect statement I've read on his blog.

WMDs were the mainstream political basis of the invasion. If Hussein had cooperated starting March 2002, the D's (minus Lieberman) would've been united against the war resolution, the Brent-Scrowcroft Republicans much more numerous, and the foreign support would have been only token third world countries plus Poland.

Sorry Matt, I don't know where you're coming from on this one.

"It would be easier to come up with lots of examples that Jews have a proclivity to suicide. As in 6,000,000 dead in the Holocaust. A passivity unto death."

This may be the most abhorent thing I have ever read on this blog (or maybe any blog) and that says a lot considering we have the likes of Richard Steven hack and Don Williams.

Shorter EK (who I'm applaled to share initials with):

I have nothing of substance to argue with about this article so I'll call Matt names and post about the authors resume.

Classic right wing arguing technique on display,

First accuse your opponent of making an adhominen attack that he didn't (Matt called the article dim witted, referring to the content, he didn't call the author a dimwit, there is a difference) Second, totally ignore the content of an argument and focus on who made it. Third call the person you are arguing with names.

Notice what is misisng in there? Anything that actually refutes Matt's point.

Sorry, EK. In this case the frivolous young blogger is indeed wiser than the elder statesman. That is a stupid column. Nothing about it suggests that Rubinstein is "thoughtful." He seems completely unaware of the constraints limiting the decision making ability of the "suicidal" examples he lists. In Saddam's case, the second he lost legitimacy he would have been killed by his fellow Iraqis, and he knew it. Of course he wasn't prepared to allow the UN a free hand in what was supposed to be a sovereign country. In the Taliban's case I would argue we were dealing with a leadership that was uneducated, unprepared for modern life and probably never truly understood what the US threat meant. It's also true that no Afghan government really controls much outside of Kabul, at least not without the consent of local tribal chiefs and warlords. If there has been one constant among Muslim leaders from Arafat to Hussein to Qadaffy to Assad to the Iranian Mullahs, it's been that they tend to regard their countries as their personal property and will jealously and viciously fight to defend their positions, both from external and internal threats. The danger to the West is that these rulers tend to place very little value on the lives of their subjects, but they certainly place a great deal of value on their own lives.

The next person who types "teh" gets fucking glassed like the lassie in Trainspotting.

I agree with Matt probably 95% of the time, but his claim that it's "delusional" to believe the Iraq invasion wouldn't have happened without credible WMD claims is the most incorrect statement I've read on his blog.

I read that to mean that it is delusional to say that Saddam "committed suicide" by not allowing inspectors in when he in fact DID let inspectors in yet was deposed and executed anyway? On second reading I guess it is pretty unclear.

Uh oh. Looks like Obama just proposed surrendering to / appeasing Raul Castro and Hugo Chavez. Run!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/may/23/barackobama.uselections20081

Back when the war in Iraq started, I was cautiously supportive of it for one reason - I really did believe that they had WMD's. That was based on two things: my respect for Colin Powell, and Iraq's genuine evasiveness about how and when to allow weapons inspectors. The historical record proved me wrong and naive. But if the Iraqis had been genuinely cooperative with the weapons inspectors, there's no way I would have supported the war. I strongly suspect there are a lot of other people - including Senators and Congressmen - who would have taken the same position.

EK (happy to share your initials),

In your haste to "partisan-up" you've missed my point. I argued not with MY's substance, nor did I mean to. I argued with his prior incarnation as someone reasonable and respectful vs. his new incarnation as a highly partisan boob who trivializes people closer-to-the-action than he.

It just strikes me as absurd that someone in DC can tell someone of Rubenstein's character/history in Israel (or his Arab equivalent in the West Bank or Gaza for that matter) what is "dimwitted" vs what is "intelligent".

The hilarious thing about you, eric, is your knee-jerk "he criticizes Matt, therefore he must be rightwing" response. I'm not. neither is Rubinstein. In fact, Rubenstein was solidly left-wing before, during and after MY became a semi-famous blogger. Ain't no right wing conspiracy here.

and if you think there's a difference between calling someone "dimwitted" and calling his work "dimwitted" than please explain. do geniuses write dimwitted columns or do dimwits write dimwitted columns?

Whatever degree of cooperation short of surrendering armed forces to the US-led UN Iraq displayed with the weapons inspectors, it would have been deemed insufficient by the war-seeking Bush Jr. They wanted a war. They made up reasons for it. They got it. The media supported them in that endeavor. That's it.

The next person who types "teh" gets fucking glassed like the lassie in Trainspotting.

d00d. stfu or 1 w177 pwn you. 1337 4 eva!!!

Brian,

You are aware that UN inspectors were in Iraq and had to be evacuated before the invasion?

I think the real reason there was such haste to get the war started is Cheney et al knew there were no weapons and wanted to get things started before the inspectors proved it.

The supporting evidence for this is pretty damn solid, we did nothing to try and secure the weapons sites. If you invade a country that you are worried about having WMDs it would seem the first thing you do is send your troops to secure the sites suspected of having said WMDs, not protect the bloody Oil Ministry.

The entire ideology of the war on terror is based on the idea that teh muslimz are not rational actors, so I don't see what is particularly dimwitted about that column.

The entire ideology of the war on terror is based on the idea that teh muslimz are not rational actors, so I don't see what is particularly dimwitted about that column.

I admit, it does surprise me that so many idiots have believed George Bush's outrageous lie that Saddam Hussein didn't allow the UN inspectors to search for weapons. Hussein did allow them to search for weapons. The UN inspectors were in Iraq jumping up and down screaming that there weren't any weapons and that Bush/Cheney should not invade. It was George Bush who told the inspectors to get out of Iraq, not Hussein. And millions of American idiots believed what Bush said instead of what they saw with their own eyes.

Tel, Brian--
What is fucking wrong with people like you? Saddam let the inspectors in. They found nothing. They were still searching when we attacked. How is this complicated? It was 2003. Five years ago. What were you doing when all of this happened.

El Cid - proof of no WMDs prior to Oct. 2003 means the war resolution wouldn't have passed. Maybe Bush would've tried invading without authorization anyway, relying on the 2001 legislation. Hard to say, he would've faced strong opposition, even among the Rs.

The point is that it's not delusional to believe a different outcome was possible with the WMD issue off the table.

First -- Goldberg increasing bigoted rhetoric deserves smackdown. MacCain rejected Parsely. More Atlanticites should reject Jeffery Goldberg's hate speech.

Second -- Rubinsteins' columns is dimwitted. matt is right. In one of the examples, even if you think they were irrational, constitute natioanl suicide. Iraq, Palestine and Afghanistan all still exist, and in the latter 2 cases, the parties that rejected the putatve deal are still not defeated.

(Note: Rubinstein may live in Israel, but that gives him no special insight into Iraq or Afghanistan. Or even Palestine. Especially not Palestine.)

Finally, I'd like to know why Jeffrey Goldberg denies the existance of the Palestinian nation.

Jeffrey Davis, I often find your comments insightful even when I don't agree with them, but I have no idea what the hell you were thinking.

"I agree with Matt probably 95% of the time, but his claim that it's "delusional" to believe the Iraq invasion wouldn't have happened without credible WMD claims is the most incorrect statement I've read on his blog.

WMDs were the mainstream political basis of the invasion. If Hussein had cooperated starting March 2002, the D's (minus Lieberman) would've been united against the war resolution, the Brent-Scrowcroft Republicans much more numerous, and the foreign support would have been only token third world countries plus Poland.

Sorry Matt, I don't know where you're coming from on this one.

Posted by Brian Schmidt | May 23, 2008 1:36 PM"

What MY is pointing out is that inspectors were active in Iraq and Hussein was complying, just not as much as we liked. Many right-wing commenters have claimed falsely that if Hussein had been more open to the inspectors, Bush would not have pursued war. This is just dishonest because there was an inspections process going on. In fact, the inspectors were only pulled out because Bush was about to launch the war and nobody wanted the inspectors to end up as collateral damage. The decision to go to war was made at the latest in January, so the decision hinged very little on what Blix said Iraq was doing. We only went in when we did to make sure that our troops didn't end up marching on Baghdad in the Iraqi summer heat. Bush was going to go in no matter what Hussein did and WMD's were just the easiest selling point.

Somebody smash a bottle over ~~~ dude's head.

From Matt's linked article --

They're acting, in short, like the demonic foreigners of their own anti-appeasement rhetoric, impervious to objective reality and hell-bent on total victory no matter what the cost or how dim the prospects of success.

"Projection" is the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT concept for understanding the contemporary neocon mind.

Saddam's mistake was, when Bush demanded that he abjectly humiliate himself, he hesitated a split second before doing so. This is why Bush took us to war.

Ikram -- don't they have spellcheck where you live?

funny, goldberg denies the Palestnian nation. well, who the h*ell does he want to give the West Bank/Gaza to? the tooth fairy?

EK

ps-- i think Rubenstein knows all too well about Palestine. Especially about Palestine.

My comment wasn't to equate the deaths in the Holocaust to suicide but to point out a flaw in Rubinstein's method. He's working backward from the bodies to the motive.

Brian -- it was Bush Jr. who did and would be deciding whether or not Iraq was cooperating with the inspectors. That's not a measurable or observable indicator, but a political one, controlled by one Bush Jr. administration.

And there was no condition on this green Earth which would have had the Bush Jr. administration pronounce that Iraq had, in fact, properly cooperated with the UN inspectors -- whatever the demonstrable reality might have been -- short of complete surrender of the Iraqi state and armed forces to U.S. authority.

If you had outlined 100 conditions that Iraq had to meet to be 'cooperating', the White House and the War Hawks would have come up instantaneously with 100 more they weren't, or they would have simply lied as they did about the original 100 conditions.

That's what I mean. You are mistaking a measurable reality for a political reality.

Why is it that so many people think these things are determined by empirical reality rather than ideological choices by political forces?

EK,

Of course smart people can make dimwitted arguments or write dimwitted columns, are you seriously arguing otherwise? A person's authority means whatever they say must be accpeted reagardless of the merits of the case they are making?

Fine your not a right winger, you do a great job of playing neo con troll though. Joe Lieberman has great left wing credentials as well, doens;t change the fact that on the war and terrorism in general he has become an Uber Neocon, in this column Rubenstein apparantly has as well.

"But if the Iraqis had been genuinely cooperative with the weapons inspectors, there's no way I would have supported the war."

The weapons inspectors certainly thought the Iraqi's were cooperative enough to prove that WMD's didn't exist and there was no current development program. I realize the Iraqi's put a fuss up about the inspectors, but so would any nation. Do you really think the US would allow UN weapons inspectors to do the same thing in our country without a fight?

El Cid - proof of no WMDs prior to Oct. 2003 means the war resolution wouldn't have passed.

According to the weapon inspectors, though, we had the proof. As a result fake proof was invented, to fool Congress, the UN, and the American people.

How is it you've managed to completely forget what happened in the run-up to war?

EK -- No, Rubinsteins' perspective on the 2000 Camp David deal shows that he does not know Palestine well.

And this is the Matt Yglesias Blog. There is know spellign here.

My comment wasn't to equate the deaths in the Holocaust to suicide but to point out a flaw in Rubinstein's method. He's working backward from the bodies to the motive.

I got your point and had tongue planted in cheek with my denunciation, fwiw.

I got your point and had tongue planted in cheek with my denunciation, fwiw.

Yes, but there was a bit of denunciation creep in subsequent posts that didn't seem to have seen the point. I was expecting pitchforks and burning tapers to swarm the street here below my window.

Chet - you're statement doesn't match what the UN inspectors said. Had they said, "we've gone everywhere we wanted without substantial delay by Iraqi officials, we've found nothing, and we have no reason to believe that Iraq has any kind of active WMD program" then your point would be correct.

The issue I'm focusing on isn't whether Bush and the neocons would've continued lying without Hussein's interference in UN inspections, it's whether the Bush admin could've had sufficient political support to pull off the invasion under the counterfactual of Iraqi cooperation with inspectors.

This is my "delusional" challenge - anyone who thinks Hussein was not acting like he had WMDs that he was trying to hide from inspectors is being delusional. Why he behaved that way is a huge question, but not whether he behaved that way.

EK et al:

Im not sure you deserve a response, but oh well.

The idea that because someone speaks a language or lives in a place makes their opinion right is kinda pathetic.

Nonetheless, if you want to play this game, why not clamor for a Palestinian voice or Iraqi or Iranian voice. Certainly they might know a thing or two. your heroworship of Rubinstein means very little.

his reductive, categorical view of the middle east is pathetic. Comparing secular groups (most Palestinians and certainly the secular nationalist Arafat) with shia persians (Iran), millenarian Sunni Salafists (Al-qaeda) and a Sunni secularist (Saddam), and then equating them all with a martyrs instinct for suicide is quite silly.

But yeah, Rubinstein is from Israel--so he must know all about muslims. I mean, it's not possible that he might be motivated by chauvinistic cultural feelings that blind him from examining other people. No way.

Matt -- Very good Prospect column. This latest distinct difference of opinion between you and non-Jonah Goldberg rekindles my interest in a Table session in which you and he debate the I/P conflict and the Iraq war. Make it happen. If he's not willing to lower himself to appear on video with you, how about a simple debate via blog posts?

anyone who really thinks that Saddam Hussein "could have avoided war and conquest by allowing UN inspectors to search for (the apparently non-existent) weapons of mass destruction wherever they wanted" is so far out of touch with reality...

I hope this isn't a harbinger of the depth of analysis we can expect in Heads in the Sand. A commenter here accuses you of recent high partisanship, and I think he may be on to something, because I don't remember you uttering something so foolish in the past. The inspections controversy long predates the Bush Administration's lip service to its ultimate go-around. Don't you think if Saddam had cooperated early on the people who wanted war with Iraq no matter what would have been undercut?

Okay, and if Saddam Hussein hadn't invaded Kuwait, we probably also wouldn't have this war today. But he did, because he was an a**hole.

"Dimwitted" is an adequate summation of Rubenstein's "national suicide" quip. For him, it's a throwaway line, and from such a well educated and experienced gentleman, lame. His three examples don't support his thesis. Amnon's best shot was the Hamas example.

However, the folks in Hamas have lived their adult/entire lives under occupation, so an IDF incursion that results in anything less than the complete liquidation of the membership still leaves Hamas in a better position than they were in 3 years ago.

re: the Iranis, Goldberg has the life experience and journalistic chops to know better. Ahmadinejad is virtually powerless to direct Iran's international affairs, which I think encourages him to go over the top with the domestic audience.

John-Paul Pagano, what were those missiles being destroyed as a result of UN inspections, toothpicks? Even Wolfowitz admitted that the WMD rationale was only the one everyone could agree on that was a good answer and would sell well. If you look through the written statements of the Project for a New American Century, the leaked brief that Wolfowitz wrote for Cheney when he was Secretary of Defense that argued we needed to invade Iraq in order to prevent the likes of Europe and China from becoming rival superpowers, etc., you'll see that the whole point of invading Iraq was about seizing power and showing we were capable of taking out anyone we didn't like.

"This is my "delusional" challenge - anyone who thinks Hussein was not acting like he had WMDs that he was trying to hide from inspectors is being delusional. Why he behaved that way is a huge question, but not whether he behaved that way.

Posted by Brian Schmidt | May 23, 2008 2:41 PM"

Actually, this stance was trying to prevent suicide by scaring Iran into not invading. It was a self-preservation stance that backfired. Now, of course the policy failed, but just because a policy is a failure doesn't mean it is intentionally suicidal.

"Let me see -- who's the dimwit. Is it Yglesias -- who can't speak Hebrew or Arabic and has a very limited view of the world. Or is it Rubenstein, a Meretz-party member. Oh lord, to even have this discussion demeans these words!!!"

EK, what does speaking Hebrew have to do with understanding whether or not Muslims are inherently suicidal? Hebrew isn't exactly spoken by a lot of Muslims. Let's see how many languages would be more relevant to know after Arabic (in no particular order):

1) Persian / Farsi
2) Turkish
3) Kurdish
4) Swahili
5) Urdu
6) Kashmiri
7) Uighur
8) Bengali
9) Punjabi
10) Indonesian
11) Javanese
12) Hausa

and that's just off the top of my head.

It's increasingly curious how colicky Jeffrey Goldberg makes liberal Jewish pundits. It's not like he's Joe Lieberman, probably the most notable liberal-Jewish punching bag, who comprises several qualities (party-dissonance, robotic rhetoric, fairly evident stupidity, an eerie resemblance to ET) that make him irresistible to other critics as well. Goldberg is fairly accommodationist. Just what is it that bothers people like Matthew Yglesias about Goldberg, who put his boots on the ground in Israel, both as a soldier and journalist, and has written some thoughtful things about the Arab-Israeli conflict, including a pretty damning expose of messianic Jewish settlers?

Is it simply that the uppity Jew would publicly lament the harm done and dangers posed by radical politics in the Muslim world?

jeff -- you are precisely the kind of pseudo-intellectual that visits this blog.

You wrote "Comparing secular groups (most Palestinians and certainly the secular nationalist Arafat) with shia persians (Iran)..."

geez, why would I do that? "Palestine" is run by Hamas (anything but a secular group and one, indeed, supported by Iran) and Fatah, whose calls of "millions of martyrs marching towards jerusalem" are not particularly secular. Moreover, the prevalence of suicide terrorism in each group's "struggle" is pretty convincing evidence of their similar worldviews, whether you think they are religiously-based or not.

so please, do a little research before writing transparent bullS*hit. You may, ya know, want to learn another language or something. Maybe you want to take a trip to memri.com and see what Iranians say in Farsi (that's their language).

by why would you do that when you can come here and have an ignorant boob confirm your deepest thoughts.

John-paul,

last post. excellent.

Nail. On. The. Head.

"geez, why would I do that? "Palestine" is run by Hamas (anything but a secular group and one, indeed, supported by Iran) and Fatah, whose calls of "millions of martyrs marching towards jerusalem" are not particularly secular. Moreover, the prevalence of suicide terrorism in each group's "struggle" is pretty convincing evidence of their similar worldviews, whether you think they are religiously-based or not."

Fatah is rather socialist. Arafat had hoped to make an independent Palestine rather Marxist. The terrorist group that uses suicide bombing the most often, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelaam, are explicitly Marxist. Correlation is not causation.

Lots of commenters, including John-Paul and Brian, are needlessly confusing the issue here. The point in question is whether Saddam could have acted "in 2003" to prevent war.

Are you seriously suggesting this was the case?

I'm with Yglesias on this

EK:

The LTTE wink at you and call you a privileged, pompous dick-waver.

Once you've finished your boot-setting and language-learning, sit down with a book or two on each of basic rules of logic and liberation struggles.

Two quick thoughts that may help you continue in this discussion first, though. 1) All groups in armed struggle against a more powerful state opponent claim to have martyrs. 2) A movement utilizing suicide missions does not tell you that they are giving Al Quaeda intellectual high fives.


"This is my "delusional" challenge - anyone who thinks Hussein was not acting like he had WMDs that he was trying to hide from inspectors is being delusional. Why he behaved that way is a huge question, but not whether he behaved that way."


By March 2003, when the inspectors had been in Iraq for months and had exhaustively checked out and refuted every 'rock-solid lead' they were given by the US, when Hans Blix was standing up before the Security Council and literally begging the US and UK to let him finish his work before they declared war, there was no way anyone could honestly claim that it was Saddam Hussein's intranigence over WMDs that was forcing military action.

He encouraged the suspicion that Iraq might or might not have retained some WMD capability prior to 2002 because his survival and self-esteem relied upon that tactic. Once it was clear that the US and UK were determined to make WMDs their raison d'etre for invading, he quickly came around to the idea that letting the inspectors have free rein was the best bet to prove that Iraq really was in compliance with the letter, if not the spirit, of the UN's Resolutions.

At which point the US and UK junked the UN route, blamed the French, and invaded anyway.

I remember this all pretty clearly. It only happened a few years ago, and it's kind of important.

Steve, even in early January 2003 Saddam might've had a chance to save his hide by truly cooperating with inspectors before they got pulled. I agree though it was much more difficult by then or by any time after the October 2002 war resolution.

While the original author specified "in 2003", Matt and Jeff didn't, and it seems like a niggling aspect of the larger issue regarding the political importance of WMDs and Saddam's behavior towards inspectors. Maybe Matt can clarify though if he reads these threads.

slam,

please enlighten me, what are "LTTE"?

if your point is that knowing cultures and their languages is not relevant to making an informed comment, then that's your point. But that's ridiculous. Language learning and on-the-ground knowledge are essential. If Iraq has taught us anything, hasn't it taught us that?

as for your "logic" and "liberation" point --

if you can follow an argument, which I seriously doubt, my point to jeff was that it is entirely reasonable to compare Iran and the Palestinians in that both society's treasure (not too strong a word)religiously-inspired suicide.

If you would read a book or two on the Palestinians, or Arabs in general (or persians, for that matter), it wouldn't take you very long to find that purported secularists (Saddam, Arafat) often use religious rhetoric as a means of justification to their audience. Arafat did such a thing with his "million martyrs" remark. Unlike joe, I actually know something about the middle east. If rubinstein's point was that Iran and Palestinians have similar worldviews regarding suicide and struggle, a strong case can be made that he's right.

as for your 2 points -- It is irrelevant to bring al-qaeda into it as they weren't on the table. But if your "logic" dictates that you bring in irrelevancies, then so be it. And no one doubts the palestinians view their suicides as martyrs - my point (and Rubinstein's) is that religiously-inspired martyrdom is common to both palestinians and Iranians.

Specification of 2003 is not niggling at all, it is the whole premise of Yglesias' post..

I don't think anyone on this thread doubts that Saddam could have acted in the 1990s so as to make war in 2003 less likely.

As for whether Saddam could have acted in January 2003 to prevent war - how, exactly?

Most of your previous arguments centered on the October 2002 war resolution, and the rest around presumed non-cooperation by Iraq.

I suggest reviewing the March 7, 2003 statement of Hans Blix:
http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/03/07/sprj.irq.un.transcript.blix/index.html

This statement is actually quite close to your hypothetical, except that Blix makes clear that it would take additional time to reach a firm conclusion.

I believe you hit the nail on the head when you suggest that political support for the war would have plummeted had the inspectors concluded that no WMD were present. That is precisely why Bush felt it important to invade before the inspectors reached this conclusion.

John-Paul

I can't speak for liberal jews, but Goldberg's writings pretty clearly mark him as a bigot. Read his recent account of watching Kurdish officials in Iraq torture and Arab prisoner -- he's gleeful about it. It's gross.

His anti-arab and anti-palestinian bigotry come out even more clearly on his blog.

Maybe Liberal jews dislike bigots(of whatever sectarian background). Maybe we all do.

Brian Schmidt:

Steve, even in early January 2003 Saddam might've had a chance to save his hide by truly cooperating with inspectors before they got pulled.

Here's what the final CIA WMD report says about the Iraqi regime's actions during that period:

Saddam assembled senior officials in December 2002 and directed them to cooperate completely with inspectors, according to a former senior officer. Saddam stated that the UN would submit a report on 27 January 2003, and that this report would indicate that Iraq was cooperating fully. He stated that all Iraqi organizations should open themselves entirely to UNMOVIC inspectors. The Republican Guard should make all records and even battle plans available to inspectors, if they requested. The Guard was to be prepared to have an “open house” day or night for the UNMOVIC inspectors. Husam Amin met with military leaders again on 20 January 2003 and conveyed the same directives. During this timeframe Russia and France were also encouraging Saddam to accept UN resolutions and to allow inspections without hindering them.

However, it's certainly true that Iraq didn't cooperate with inspections during the nineties. There were two main reasons for this: (1) Iraq's goal was to have the sanctions lifted (as required by the relevant UN resolutions) once they were certified as having disarmed, but the US repeatedly said we would never allow the sanctions to be lifted whether they disarmed or not, so they had little incentive to cooperate, and (2) the regime (correctly) believed UNSCOM had been infiltrated by CIA and British operatives attempting to stage a coup. This is how Iraq justified their actions at the time, and as we now know, they were accurately describing their motivation. In regard to (2), one of the most famous episodes of Iraqi intransigeance was in late 1998 when Iraq refused to allow UNSCOM to enter a Baath party headquarters. The CIA report details how Saddam was actually in the building at that moment.

EK:

LTTE = Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Currently fighting in Sri Lanka for--in theory--an ethnic enclave in northern Sri Lanka. They are not Muslim.

It should alo be noted that most of the suicide attacks in Lebanon in the 1970s and 1980s were carried out by secular, pro-Syrian groups, according to Ariel Merari.

If you want to discuss national suicide over the years, read up on the Bar Kochba revolt in Judea.

Though I can't speak for jews, liberal or otherwise, I'll just say my problem with Jeffie is that he's a credulous blivet, whose idiotic pre-war "journalism" (a Kurdish defector assured me Saddam was in cahoots with Al Qaeda...I don't have the time and space to refute here why the war in iraq will be anything less a great moral victory that will cause us to be respected in the middle east..etc. etc.) makes Scott Templeton look like fucking Woodward and Bernstein.

He's exactly the kind of person I would expect to be hired by The Atlantic and praised as unique and powerful voice on the Mid-East by similarly obtuse nerds and morons, sorry I mean neo-liberals. Stop by Tiny Revolution to get a much better picture than I can paint, of what a intellectual lightweight and toolbox this fat-faced chump really is.

I mean if you want to be lectured on national security and foreign policy from a guy whose credentials include "putting his feet on the ground" that's up to you, but I prefer to pay attention to those who weren't laughably and miserably wrong.

EK:

You seem pretty tough behind the keyboard,maybe you can cuss at me in one of the many languages you or memri (memri, seriously!)speak.

But I will move on to the substantive points:

In Rubinstein's article he mentions Arafat in his article about suicidal martyrdom, and thus I mentioned Arafat, not hamas. If you could point to me where and when Arafat was a radical islamist, I would be interested.

Moreover, the problem with Rubinstein's article is that he clumsily links (as you do) so many different groups together that share little ideology and no religious similarity and tries to unify them under the guise of islamic martyrdom. AS rubinstein writes, these are all examples of "Islamist national suicide." But Arafat and Saddam were not islamists, but instead secular nationalists of an arab socialist bent (remember Nasser). Further, as others have pointed out, Saddam's semi-refusal to engage U.S. officials was hardly an invitation for suicide.

So such a grand intellectual as you --steeped in Memri publications-- would know that muslims are a very disparate political group, which makes all of this islamofacism nonsense dumb. They never could muster a unified front against Israel, and they hardly can now. Supporting the Palestinians has hardly unified these groups over all these years as the saudis and salafists seek to undermine the shia and iran and vis versa.

Now I suggest you do what your parents did, get a jobs, sir. The bums lost!

"It should alo be noted that most of the suicide attacks in Lebanon in the 1970s and 1980s were carried out by secular, pro-Syrian groups, according to Ariel Merari."

Even a lot of Hezbollah's suicide bombers in the 1980's were Christians or atheist communists as shown in "Dying to Win."

"If you would read a book or two on the Palestinians, or Arabs in general (or persians, for that matter), it wouldn't take you very long to find that purported secularists (Saddam, Arafat) often use religious rhetoric as a means of justification to their audience. Arafat did such a thing with his "million martyrs" remark. Unlike joe, I actually know something about the middle east. If rubinstein's point was that Iran and Palestinians have similar worldviews regarding suicide and struggle, a strong case can be made that he's right."

Once again, correlation isn't causation. Stalin used to draw rather explicitly on Russian Orthodox Christian iconography and re-frame it for communist purposes. That didn't make Stalin a Christian. Similarly, the early Catholic Church re-appropriated pagan customs, festivals and turns of phrases for the purpose of more easily spreading Christianity. The language of a religion that is hegemonic among a given populace is going to be part of the common language of any political group from within that society. Taken out of context, some of Marx's writings can sound rather Christian.

You're also conflating a lot of things here: suicide bomber = Islamic terrorist = Palestinian radical = Hamas = Fatah = inherently suicidal Muslims.

RM -- like the pseudo-intllectual you are, you are rather fond of meaningless phrases "correlation isn't causation." so let me lay it out for you -- no one, not rubenstein nor i, is arguing that iran "caused" palestinians to do something nor that the actions of the palis and iranians are caused by something. Rather, they both share a penchant for suicide martyrdom (whatever the cause). that, i think, is irrefutable -- by any empirical measure.

and, no i did not conflate suicide bomber=IT=PR-....because, i never said that muslims were inherently suicidal. just that 2 groups showed a penchant for the same thing.
that's you reading into my rather limited argument. but that's what you do, so be it.

and jeff, you too argue too much. Islamofacism isn't the notion that ALL muslims have fascist tendencies. It's that a specific, identifiable group uses islam as a cover for totalitarian ideology. that, i think, is beyond argument.

and, you write that rubenstein conflates disparate groups that "share little ideology and no religious similarity" --- yea, except for the fact that they are all MUSLIMS -- nothing similar here except for the similarity!!! You'll twist yourself in knots to avoid criticizing Muslims. amazing.

your point about rubenstein's use of language is fair, thought I think he meant "Islamic" rather than "Islamist".

I'm reminded of a scene in a Vietnam doc where William Westmoreland speaks of the "Oriental" insensitivity to death and the lesser value Asians place on life. Of course, pace EK, Westmoreland was there so surely he knows what of he speaks.

Anyway, how lucky it is for us that the people whom we wish to kill and dominate never seem to mind getting killed and dominated! Otherwise I might lose sleep over it.

Masada ring a bell, Dave?

Moron.

The rest of these morons have never read the definitive study of suicide bombers, Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dying_to_Win:_The_Strategic_Logic_of_Suicide_Terrorism

Guess who he cites as historical examples?

"Three historical episodes are introduced for purposes of comparison: the ancient Jewish Zealots (11-12; see also 33-34), the 11th-12th-century Ismaili Assassins (12-13; see also 34-35), and the Japanese kamikazes (13; see also 35-37)."

Well, well, well - ancient Jewish Zealots?

Not so ancient, actually, since the same "Zealots" are now called "Zionists" - they even have the same capital letter "Z"!

Goldberg put his "boots on the ground"? Actually he put his boots on Palestinians, since he was a prison guard who routinely bullied Palestinians.

For that alone, merely being a prison guard, let alone in Israel, he deserves a bullet in the head.

Jeffrey Goldberg's Prison
By Norman Finkelstein
http://www.counterpunch.org/finkelstein10062007.html

Money Quotes:

"Between December 1987 and September 1993, 1124 Palestinians were killed by Israelis as against 75 Israelis killed by Palestinians. In 1988 and again in 1989, for example, "over 260 unarmed Palestinian civilians, including children, were shot dead by Israeli forces, often in circumstances suggesting excessive use of force or deliberate killings" (Amnesty). To judge by these figures, Goldberg should perhaps have also preached to Israelis the virtue of nonviolence. During the intifada "it was illegal to fly th[e] flag," he reports, while "a Palestinian man holding a rifle would be shot and killed". In fact the official Israeli rules of engagement allowed for the killing of a Palestinian for hoisting the national flag or ignoring an order to halt while the unofficial or de facto rules of engagement were yet more lax. The few Israelis indicted in connection with Palestinian deaths were convicted on minor charges and received derisory punishments, whereas Palestinians convicted of throwing a stone were handed sentences of up to five years' imprisonment.

Each year of the intifada thousands of Palestinians were "beaten by Israeli forces" and "many were punitively kicked or struck with clubs or rifle butts," according to human rights organizations. "The victims included people who refused to clear road-blocks or delete graffiti, or who were suspected of having thrown stones. Many suffered severe injuries, particularly fractures" (Amnesty). More than 50,000 Palestinian children required medical attention in the first years of the intifada due to "indiscriminate beating, tear-gassing and shooting" (Save the Children). In his distillation of these atrocities Goldberg simply reports that the daily routine of Israeli soldiers "consisted of chasing rock-throwing children". He recalls having sympathized with the "symbolic violence" of these diminutive stone-throwers until he himself was hit by a rock: "There was nothing symbolic about the pain, or the blood that ran down the back of my neck" --which no doubt justified "chasing" the perpetrators."

Fuck Goldberg, fuck EK, and fuck the rest of the Zionist freaks posting here.

From Jonathan's CIA doc:

"The Security Council’s unanimous decision on 8 November 2002 to adopt Resolution 1441, which found Iraq in “material breach of all its obligations under relevant resolutions,” clearly demonstrated the seriousness of the international community. Resolution 1441 required that Iraq “provide UNMOVIC and the IAEA immediate, unimpeded, unconditional, and unrestricted access to any and all, including underground, areas, facilities, buildings, equipment, records, and means of transport which they wished to inspect, as well as immediate, unimpeded and private accessto all officials and other persons whom UNMOVIC or the IAEA chose to interview in the mode or location of UNMOVIC’s or the IAEA’s choice pursuant to any aspect of their mandates.” UNMOVIC and IAEA were instructed “to resume inspections no later than 45 days following adoption of this resolution and to update the Council 60 days thereafter.”

Having held out for so long, Saddam initially did not accept much of what UNSCR 1441 required."

----
Steve's link also has Blix saying they could use more cooperation in March 2003. Still, I'll admit it's more cooperation than I recalled, but it happened pretty late.

Don't you think if Saddam had cooperated early on the people who wanted war with Iraq no matter what would have been undercut?

No, they (i.e. those who wanted war) would have infiltrated the inspecitons and used them to create a coup in Iraq, like they tried to do under Clinton.

Who sponsored and pushed for 1441? Was it UNMOVIC? The IAEA? Hans Blix?

Or was some prominent members of the Security Council?

It was initiated by a speech by Bush Jr. and then pushed through by the US and UK. It was a political act, and not a spontaneous declaration by the inspectors themselves.

Which is certainly how most legislation occurs -- i.e., by the political or government officials empowered to do so, rather than involved or affected parties.

But it would be wrong to see it as some objective, non-politicized evidence that Iraq's behavior in 2003 caused either 1441 or the war.

Re: As for whether Saddam could have acted in January 2003 to prevent war - how, exactly?

Well, he could have hopped on one of his jets and flown off to luxurious exile. I've long wondered why he didn't take that option. He had enough dollars and euros stuffed in Swiss banks he could have lived well until the end of his days. Did he really think he could defeat the Americans (after the drubbing he took in 91)? Or was he simply so wedded to power that he couldn't imagine not ruling a country?

CIA WMD report cited by Brian Schmidt:

Having held out for so long, Saddam initially did not accept much of what UNSCR 1441 required.

Sure -- initially, when it passed in November, 2002. The regime's reasons for this were the ones I noted above, combined with a belief the US would have to be crazy to invade Iraq and empower Iran. None of this is evidence for an Islamist tendency to commit national suicide. If anything, it's evidence for a mistaken belief that the US wasn't nuts.

Then in December Saddam gave the order to "cooperate completely with inspectors." Which Iraq did. Particularly given what we know now, the idea that some unspecified further "cooperation" would have prevented a US attack is preposterous.

JonF:

Well, he could have hopped on one of his jets and flown off to luxurious exile. I've long wondered why he didn't take that option.

Apparently Saddam did try to do this:

CNN is told that roughly three weeks before the first U.S. strike, Saddam Hussein agreed in principle to accept an offer of exile. The offer came from the United Arab Emirates and was presented to other Arab leaders during a summit of the Arab League in Egypt. The proposal, we are told, was never acted upon.

"Steve, even in early January 2003 Saddam might've had a chance to save his hide by truly cooperating with inspectors before they got pulled."

You forgot to give the citation

"How Jews exploded WTC from inside and other urban legends of 21st Century"

If I recall, by January hitherto mighty program of making weapons of mass destruction was reduced to phantasmagoric trailers in traveling circuses, assisted by magicians well versed in disappearing tricks. Disproving that was somewhat hard.

Other sticking issue was two tons of yeasts that someone recalled that existed 10 years prior and nobody could account what happened to them. These yeasts, by the agency of philosophical stone, could be transformed into most deadly substances known to human kind. Or to Colin Powell and other non-chemists.

"Well, he could have hopped on one of his jets..." Have you ever read about something called "visa" or "approved asylum"?

piotr: Don't forget the risk that the Iraqis were preparing to send either massive numbers of trucks in an armored caravan or heavy cargo planes to secretly obtain -- from a French run and guarded nuclear materials facility in the middle of Niger -- hundreds of tons of low-grade uranium when they already possessed thousands and thousands of tons of the stuff.

http://www.iaea.org/OurWork/SV/Invo/factsheet.html#indigenous

Bottom line: The fact that anybody today has to be reminded that Bush is a liar pretty clearly demonstrates how far the US electorate has fallen, thanks to the US educational system.

Goldberg is a Zionist freak. Why does anybody care about what he writes any more than something that idiot SLC might post here?

The only people committing "national suicide" right now are Americans supporting Bush and McCain and Clinton, while ignoring the probability of an Iran war which will devastate the US military, the US economy, and US geopolitical credibility (or what's left of it after Iraq.)

And of course, Matt can't talk about that, so he might as well commit suicide.

JonF suggests that the invasion could have been avoided had Saddam simply abandoned the country.

Jonathan correctly points out that indications are that Saddam was indeed open to this.

Notwithstanding the other difficulties that Piotr raises I think the notion that this could have forestalled war is very dubious. The US would not have been content to let a new government not of its choosing simply take power in Saddam's stead. Bush was heavily invested in a US military victory that would leave the US calling the shots.

Take a moment to consider that Saddam was evidently prepared to abandon the country in the face of a threat that was sustained by what turned out to be truly outrageous lies and conspiracy theories about WMD. Doesn't this really point to exactly the opposite of the conclusion that Rubinstein draws?

Re: Notwithstanding the other difficulties that Piotr raises I think the notion that this could have forestalled war is very dubious.

I suspect that in the event Saddam had decamped the US would have occupied Iraq as part of a UN peacekeeping force (but certainly as the controlling part of that force). So, there would have been no invasion and far less death and destruction-- though in the long run the result might have been the same, a clueless and arrogant US provoking an insurgency and we'd be more or less where we are right now.
By the way, I don't think Saddam had a death wish as such, I do however think he suffered the same short-sightedness that other doomed rulers have down through history, like Charles I of England, Louis XVI, Nicholas II etc. They simply couldn't imagine losing power and even when it started happening they imagined they'd somehow pull it out (or be rescued by others) in the end. Perhaps this is akin to the same stubborn but foolish optimism that causes people to remain in path of oncoming hurricanes and rumbling volcanos despite warnings to flee.

Ask and ye shall receive...

http://www.tinyrevolution.com/mt/archives/002299.html

It is a fundamentally dim-witted Rubinstein article. I followed the link expecting to see some actual evidence of Muslim search for an orgasmic national suicide and what I found was some tortured logic and specious writing that I struggled to get to the end of. Nonsense.

Matt is exactly right to point out that the people who make these arguments are the implacable crazies.

Take the case of Iran, you'd have to be pretty crazy to think that a 3000 year old civilisation is going to seek national suicide by nuking Israel which has existed in its hood for the 3000 years. All this while also "wiping off the face of the map" its Palestinian allies, the source of its bellus for Israel. And the Palestinian allies are just happy and eager-being also Muslim- to be so wiped off the map. In the meantime, the 1000s of Jews in Iran reject financial inducements to migrate to Israel. You'd think they-not being Muslim, and being rationally Jewish- will choose to not be a part of the great orgasmic national Iranian suicide.

A lot of supposedly serious thinkers are wackos. It's a defining feature of our times that they are taken seriously.