Called instantly for Obama, must be a big win.
UPDATE: Obama wins men and Obama wins women. And look at this --
For comparison, George Allen got 15 percent of the black vote in 2006.
« Indiana | Main | Obama-Clinton »
North Carolina
06 May 2008 07:30 pm
Comments (54)
Um...woot?
God, it would be nice for him to pull it off in Indiana.
Why do they always ask "Why can't Obama win white people?" but never "Why can't Hillary ever increase her % of the black vote, the most loyal demographic to Democrats?"
How's this for misogynist: Screw that crone!!!
CNN has him winning both men AND women. Fishy.
Uhm, why? Let's say roughly 1/3 of those women are black and let's say they vote 10:1 for Obama, while the white females go Clinton 60:40. I'd say that would lead to Obama carrying the overall female vote.
That projects to a 5-6 point win, either 52.5-47.5 or 53-47 for Obama.
George Allen was running in a different state. Not that that totally obviates your point, I guess, but it complicates it.
where are these numbers coming from? I have been starting at the state electoral boards website and they have clinton winning so far? But none of it makes sense?
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/1875/3101/en/summary.html
How's this for misogynist: Screw that crone!!!
I prefer: Iron my shirt, biotch!!
I'm sure that we'll shortly see a chastened Petey soberly reflecting on how his predictions (Clinton takes Indiana 56/44, Obama takes North Carolina 54/46) were wildly optimistic for his candidate, and reconsidering his predictive powers.
I kid, I kid.
For comparison, George Allen got 15 percent of the black vote in 2006.
In North Carolina?
""Why can't Hillary ever increase her % of the black vote, the most loyal demographic to Democrats?"
Here's a handy guide to predicting the black vote for you:
That's really all you need to know.
Fred, that wasn't my point. I was simply commenting on the media spin. It appears to me that Obama holds steady in his % of white vote from state to state, while Clinton falls further and further behind in the black vote. This should lend some credence to the argument that there's an enormous risk of a black voter backlash if Clinton gets the nod through some back room deal. But the pundits tend to focus on creating a deficiency somewhere while ignoring another one elsewhere.
Jeff S.: Touche.
Fred,
Except that is total bullshit, see Carol Mosely Braun, Al Sharpton and many others
In a contest between a black Democrat and a white Democrat, blacks will vote overwhelmingly for the black Democrat.
This explains the staggering wins Carol Moseley-Braun and Al Sharpton got in the 2004 primary.
I agree with Fred, I think that's a fair assessment. Ex: Michael Steel didn't get the black vote.
Furthermore: Between a sane black Democrat and an insane black Republican, Illinoisans will pick the sane black democrat.
That projects to a 5-6 point win, either 52.5-47.5 or 53-47 for Obama.
Not it doesn't.
Based on the white and black vote, Obama gets -
22.68% from the White vote
30.03% from the Black vote
52.71% total
Clinton gets
37.17% from the White vote
1.98% from the Black vote
39.15% total
52.71-39.15 = 13.56% Obama victory, ignoring the Black and Asian vote.
Note that a strangely high percentage of the vote seems to be going to "no preference" - was Edwards on the ballot?
Doesn't necessarly mean whites are overhelming for clinton. what would be interesting is to see how many of the white vote are women. if we take the reverse argument (than saying that black vote for obama) meaning that white women overhelming vote for clinton just because she is a women - which Is an important factor - then we can't conclude he has difficulty with convincing whites, since most of the white women democrats will vote for him in November.
91-6.... yikes. That's... Is there a word that means 'lopsided' but has a much stronger connotation?
Let's not even go with Sharpton and Moseley-Braun, who were obviously very weak candidates.
Let's go back to Jesse Jackson, who did win the black vote, I think, in 84 and 88.
He did not, however, win anywhere near 90% of the black vote in either year, and especially not in 84, when Mondale did decently well among African Americans.
That Obama would win the Black vote on the basis of being Black is not terribly surprising. That he would win 91% of it against a candidate who previously had a pretty decent relationship with the Black community is pretty shocking.
Here's a handy guide to predicting the black vote for you:
# In a contest between a Democrat and a Republican, blacks will vote overwhelmingly for the Democrat, even if the Democrat is white and the Republican is black.
# In a contest between a black Democrat and a white Democrat, blacks will vote overwhelmingly for the black Democrat.
That's really all you need to know.
And how about:
#In a contest between a woman and a man, women will vote disproportionately for the woman.
That's no less true, but it doesn't seem to get covered in the same spin that Obama's "white problem" is in part a feature of (white) women voting for a woman.
No Preference? Why are these people voting then? I didn't realize no preference was a choice.
52.71-39.15 = 13.56% Obama victory, ignoring the Black and Asian vote.
Now tack on his supposed huge early voting win (~60%). Easy to see why the nets called this one.
You know, even 'landslide' doesn't quite cut it. Is there a stronger word for 'landslide'?
You know, even 'landslide' doesn't quite cut it. Is there a stronger word for 'landslide'?
One thing for sure: I've been critical of the "Obama can't lose" statements prior to today. But I'd say that, after today, it is, indeed, over.* Barring the proverbial lightning strike, Obama now does have it in the bag.
My guess: over the next three days, Obama nets at least an additional 20 supers.
*even assuming that the final results don't quite match the exits.
It's a double plus humongoslide.
I think most of the N.C. results in so far are early voting - I suspect it'll tighten a bit.
John,
Thanks for the correction. I did the math on the Obama percentages, getting 52.7%, and then just subtracted from 100%.
John: Really? You don't think it'll be 65/33? Shocking.
(Exit polls on CNN have it at 55/41/4 Obama/Clinton/Undecided).
"avalanche" = bigger than "landslide"
'tsunami' is technically bigger than 'avalanche,' but its use is--at this moment--discouraged.
Rachel Maddow is on MSNBC right now, being her usual smart, savvy self. Can someone give her a show, please?
Current MSNBC spread is 54-46 favoring Clinton in Indiana, with 52% of the vote in.
Note that a strangely high percentage of the vote seems to be going to "no preference" - was Edwards on the ballot?
No, but Gravel was. Unaffiliated voters can still vote for the non-partisan judicial and local elections.
And unaffiliated voters are a big bloc in NC.
Democratic: 2,632,402
Republican: 1,933,645
Unaffiliated: 1,244,538
Assuming the exit polls are right, the Operation Chaos effect wound up being worth about 4.5% for Clinton in both Indiana and North Carolina; this is calculated from the crosstabs of the "Who will you support in November b/w Obama/Clinton Vs. McCain" ... one in five NC Clinton voters will vote for McCain over her in November (lower percentage in IN).
This isn't necessarily an effect inspired by Rush; it could be people who support McCain who wanted to support or oppose the candidate of their choice on the Dem side and knew they wouldn't have a say in the GOP nomination. I know that if I still lived in Kansas I would probably register GOP and be in that boat.
Obama picks up another superdelegate in North Carolina.
I think after tonight's results, the floodgates will open.
George Allen got 15 percent of the black vote in 2006.
As said before, in a different state.
And not only that, Allen was an incumbent going against someone who was even more 'good-old-boy' than Allen could even pretend to be. (The 'Macaca' crack nothwithstanding)
How about Blowout... or considering Hillary's love of baseball analogies how about drubbing?
I gotta say, I felt really bad about today until Petey said that Clinton would win Indiana by more than Obama would win NC.
It's still too early to say, but it looks conceivable that Obama could win NC by about 20 while losing IN by less than 10. If that happens, somebody is going to have to explain to me why Clinton shouldn't get the fuck out.
You know, even 'landslide' doesn't quite cut it. Is there a stronger word for 'landslide'?
How about a freakin supersized landslide?!
You know, even 'landslide' doesn't quite cut it. Is there a stronger word for 'landslide'?
How about a freakin supersized landslide?!
uh, might want to re-check your large, usually R-voting, formerly reliably-red states...we're actually NOT interchageable.
others have already noted, but in case a mini-refresher required to get a correction around here:
George Allen was a (barely-elected--by 8 votes!) State Legislator (80s), Governor(90s) and most recently (00s) 1-term Senator in neighboring VIRGINIA before he became more widely known/infamous nationally as the first big political casualty of YouTube c.2006. ring a bell? (see: macacca incident; quick death of patently ridiculous - yet horrifying- talk of him as presumtive '08 GOP nominee, purely on basis of (manufactured!!) good ole boy persona & ubiquitous TV appearances in defense/lockstep w/ GWB post-2002).
uh, sorry. think that whole incident may have gotten my blood up much?
As a former resident of his distric in VA I breathed a sigh of relief and took no small measure of glee when he was exposed as the empty 10 gallon hat he was posing as.
The irony? the way this spectacle of a Dem race is turning out though, this Obama supporter only WISHES we we're taking on the mock-cowboy/noose- & Confederate flag loving ex-Gov...of VIRGINIA.
Wow, it's beginning to look like this time the exits were dead on, and that's pretty damn good news for Obama. I made one of the more optimistic predictions in the below predictions thread, and it looks like I was too pessimistic.
In this thread I said Obama nets 20 more supers by Friday. I'm wondering if it may be more like 50.
It's important to consider the role of the televised media in the outcome. TV Journalism RIP. George Stephanopoulos and Charlie Gibson should resign. http://acropolisreview.com/2008/04/stephen-colbert-on-media-vs-facts-truth.html
If that happens, somebody is going to have to explain to me why Clinton shouldn't get the fuck out.
The urgency for giving Clinton the bum's rush would seem to have faded, if only because most if not all of the damage she might inflict on our chances in November, has already been done. But if she loses ground in the delegate count tonight, the rationale for her staying in the race will be even less tethered to reality than it has recently been. Only a flesh wound, no doubt they will say.
again Obama wins solely on the strength of the Black vote
what a uniter!
he'll transform us all and his wife will re-educate us (in camps)
The George Allen comparison isn't even relevant. Not only is it a different state, that was a general election. This is a primary, and African-American voters make up a greater share of the electorate in a Democratic primary in the South.
Why is it that MSNBC is the only organization competent enough to put a video of Obama's speech 30 minutes after it ended? I can't access the MSNBC video because I'm on a work computer without the latest flash player. Anyone else know where I could get the speech on the web?
again Obama wins solely on the strength of the Black vote
what a uniter!
he'll transform us all and his wife will re-educate us (in camps)
I'm sensing a lot of bitterness from Clinton supporters tonight. Guess they will cling to their candidate a little longer.
Darn italics tags.
Obviously the second and third sentences above were meant to be in italics.
I'll repeat my prediction in this thread, although I've already said it elsewhere.
Clinton will go to the convention - and beyond with lawsuits. She will not drop out.
She wants Obama to lose and McCain to win so she can run in 2012, thinking she'll be a shoe-in then. Of course she'll be treated like Ralph Nader by then, but she doesn't believe that because some right wing religious cult leader told her otherwise.
Comments closed May 20, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
CNN has him winning both men AND women. Fishy.
Posted by 55 | May 6, 2008 7:34 PM