I should make an official prediction about tonight, right? Well, clearly the universe is conspiring to make this primary last as long as possible. So what's going to happen is that (of course) Clinton will win Indiana and Obama will win North Carolina. But Clinton will win Indiana by a larger margin than Obama wins North Carolina, and Clinton's supporters will note in somber tones that Obama lost the white vote in NC. At the same time, because NC has substantially more delegates than Indiana, Obama will actually make a small gain in net delegates causing his supporters (i.e. me) to become further enraged at Clinton's refusal to admit that she's lost and the press' insistence on indulging the idea that there's real doubt about the ultimate outcome.
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Official Prediction
06 May 2008 10:32 am
Comments (107)
Nice. I got depressed just contemplating this, but it really does seem to fit the pattern.
Let's hope you're as prescient as ever.
And then Barack will trumpet the 1,500,000 milestone met last night and his April amounts (any word on how the three campaigns did?) and the press will briefly mention his greater earnings potential. And the superdelegate trickle will continue ...
"But Clinton will win Indiana by a larger margin than Obama wins North Carolina"
I really don't think that's very likely.
I'm staying optimistic. Obama in NC by double digits (barely), and in IN by 1 or 2 points. The early vote makes the difference, and this shit ends tonight.
Drudge is reporting Clinton campaign sources fear a double digit loss in NC. My sense is this is quite plausible, and that HRC's surge peaked about a week ago. And there ain't no way she exceeds her Pennsylvania margins in Indiana -- at least I don't think so. I reckon she needs to win both today to stay alive (in fact winning both today for her would make this very much a race). But she won't do it. And not winning both states effectively pushes her chances back toward zero. Losing both -- even narrowly -- finishes her, and we'll see a major break of SDs toward Obama. So much so, I suspect, that she might even suspend her campaign.
Mark my words.
Obama in NC by no less than 8, gerrymanders his way into an impressive delegate cache.
HRC in IN by no more than six, with Obama again profiting from district boundaries and doing unexpectedly well with Chicagoland whites.
This is the way to be neutral--accept your partiality and try to write from an objective POV. It makes people less irritated and you have less dread of their comments.
I posted this in a dying thread, but anyone think there's a realistic chance that Hilary might make a run as a 3rd party candidate? If she can stay close to Obama and keep weakening him, this may be her best option. Hilary can't win the Democratic nomination at this point, but she's shown enough strength vs. Obama among certain demographics, and McCain is weak and mistake-prone enough, that she might be able to convince herself and her die-hards that she really has a shot at running outside the party. If she keeps running on Obama's right, she might have a shot at taking some of McCain's hawk/socially liberal support away - the Weekly Standard already seems to be getting a Limbaugh like crush on her. Hilary could well end up pulling a Lieberman on a national scale. In fact, if she could convince Lieberman to be her VP she would have the media eating out of her hand.
Matt:
Are you engaged in expectations-setting here?
Seriously, these predictions don't jibe with reality. We actually have a pretty gosh-darned good idea who voted early in NC, because the state releases detailed demographic information on every last early ballot, all 496k of them. And the Dem turnout in the early voting was (a) stronger than the polls predicted and (b) far more demographically favorable to Obama than to Hillary. So it'd take something really unexpected today (turnout, say, in excess of 1.7 million) for Hillary to lose by less than double digits in the Tar Heel State. And I don't see that happening.
Indiana, on the other hand, has been a single-digit race, and a single-digit race it remains. So Obama wins NC by a big margin, but accrues only a modest edge in delegates (see CQ's analysis). And Hillary wins Indiana, but accrues an even smaller delegate edge. And around and around we go.
This doesn't sound like such a bad outcome. I mean, would you prefer Clinton winning both states?
Even if Obama upsets Clinton in Indiana, I don't think she'll pull out. We just have to get used to the idea that she'll be hanging around for awhile. If Obama were to win Indiana, the good thing is that he could start ignoring her and acting as if she's irrelevant.
(in fact winning both today for her would make this very much a race)
Not in terms of how the system actually works. What are you, a journalist?
Clinton/Lieberman, '08! It really works.
Isn't Indiana fundamentally different than Pennsylvania because it is an open primary? In other words, shouldn't Obama do better than in PA because of independents and cross-over Republicans?
This primary is never going to end.
I posted this in a dying thread, but anyone think there's a realistic chance that Hilary might make a run as a 3rd party candidate? If she can stay close to Obama and keep weakening him, this may be her best option. Hilary can't win the Democratic nomination at this point, but she's shown enough strength vs. Obama among certain demographics, and McCain is weak and mistake-prone enough, that she might be able to convince herself and her die-hards that she really has a shot at running outside the party. If she keeps running on Obama's right, she might have a shot at taking some of McCain's hawk/socially liberal support away - the Weekly Standard already seems to be getting a Limbaugh like crush on her. Hilary could well end up pulling a Lieberman on a national scale. In fact, if she could convince Lieberman to be her VP she would have the media eating out of her hand.
Even if Obama upsets Clinton in Indiana, I don't think she'll pull out. We just have to get used to the idea that she'll be hanging around for awhile. If Obama were to win Indiana, the good thing is that he could start ignoring her and acting as if she's irrelevant.Obama would immediately get a large wave of superdelegate endorsements, and the press would start ignoring her the way they ignore Ron Paul.
Now if I could just make myself believe he can win Indiana... Nah, can't do it.
Hillary can lick the sweat from my ballbag. I repented and now can't abide the bitch.
Clinton will announce that John McCain is her vice presidential running mate. The media will pronounce her wise decision. Everyone else will realize that her brain sprung a leak two weeks ago and she's bat shit crazy.
Vanya,
No.
10% Obama win in NC and 1% Hillary win in Indiana, followed by - more than a trickle, less than a flood - of supers to Obama. By the weekend, Obama overtakes Hillary in the supers, has an overall delegate lead of about 165.
And that would pretty much clinch the nomination. But ... I'm still quite worried that the process is going to last till the convention, damaging, perhaps fatally, Obama's chances in the fall. Two reasons (aside from Hillary's massive selfishness and self regard, which is a given). One the media narrative, which has turned very much against Obama over the past few days, ironically after he started his strong rebound in the polls. A result along the lines set forth above should be regarded as very good news for Obam, but it won't be spun that way by the press.
Reason 2: WV on 5/13. Look, I know that it won't make much of a difference in terms of either delegates or the popular vote, but Hillary is likely to carry WV by a pretty absurd margin. It will be a miracle if Obama can keep it under 20%. That will mean one thing for sure, and perhaps another. For sure: media narrative turns even more favorable for Hillary. Possibly: impact some supers, not so much to support Hillary, but to keep their powder dry.
Then you have a split on 5/23, though will Hillary doing better in Kentucky than Obama does in Oregon, followed by a big Clinton win in PR. Obama then cleans up in the few remaining small states.
Okay, early June now. The remaining supers declare. Obama goes over the number of delegates needed if NC and Florida aren't seated. But - and this is really the key point of this comment - a continued pro Hillary media narrative prevents many supers defecting from Hillary to Obama, and thus prevents the scenario where Obama has enough delegates to win even with Florida and NC counted.
Hillary, encouraged by the media narrative, stays in the race to the bitter end. She loses the credentials fight on a close vote, and Obama wins a first ballot victory. But he is badly damaged, partly by Hillary's continued attacks, partly by residual bitterness in MI and FL, and mainly by the fact that he can't really start going full throttle against McCain until September.
Look, I hope I'm wrong about the media narrative, but over the last few days it seems to have settled pretty firmly in Hillary's favor. That won't be enough to get her the nomination, but it sure is helping McCain.
I think this prediction is wrong-headed. Polls in all the southern states have tended to underestimate Obama's margin - this seems likely to be true in North Carolina as well. Unless Obama absolutely tanks with white voters, or black voters don't turn out, or Clinton starts getting a decent share of the black vote, none of which seems particularly likely, Obama should verge on winning by double digits, no matter what the polls say.
I have much less of a feel for Indiana, but I don't think Clinton will win by a huge amount there.
I posted this in a dying thread, but anyone think there's a realistic chance that Hilary might make a run as a 3rd party candidate?
Nothing's impossible, but this seems very unlikely. She wouldn't win as a third party candidate in this election or any other in the predictable future. Maybe it's unfortunate that third party or independent candidates have no chance, but that's the way it is now. And even if she does I wouldn't find it totally impossible to see Obama still win, because the left might be split between Obama and Clinton, but the pro-war and pro-status quo voters would also be split between McCain and Clinton. And then she would have no way of winning, ever. As things stand right now, it's possible for her to salvage her reputation for a future candidacy regardless of how Obama does, albeit not easy, because she's part of the party machine and stuff. If she gives that up, she would never be president.
Hillary Clinton running a third party campaign only makes sense if you assume that she is motivated not merely by ambition, but actual spite and malice directed at Obama and/or the Democratic Party. This seems unlikely.
Obama will actually make a small gain in net delegates causing his supporters (i.e. me) to become further enraged at ... [whatever, they get enraged at the drop of a hat]
The key thing is the further enragement of Obama supporters.
Scientific:
I'm staying optimistic. Obama in NC by double digits (barely), and in IN by 1 or 2 points. The early vote makes the difference, and this shit ends tonight.
I likey this prediction. Can't you feel the magic in the air? The long national nightmare is finally coming to a close. And Edwards missed the bus. I'm celebrating tonight!
What's hilarious is Hillary's closing comments that she doesn't listen to economists. What about Krugman? Wasn't Bush's problem that he wouldn't listen to experts, scientific or otherwise? He'd just divine the truth and look into people's eyes to see their souls.
IN: HRC + 4
NC: BHO + 8
You heard it here first.
And Zogby, stop breaking my heart.
Not in terms of how the system actually works. What are you, a journalist?
The way the system works -- at least this cycle -- is that it requires the votes of superdelegates to put either candidate over the top. Obama, too, needs them to become the presumptive nominee, barring an implosion of the Clinton candidacy and/or her withdrawal.
So, yeah, I suspect a win for Hillary Clinton in both Indiana and North Carolina -- and the ensuing media-directed narrative -- accompanied by huge infusions of cash into her campaign and eventual big wins in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico -- most certainly would give her a plausible case to make to the superdelegates. I mean, it's not like she's behind Obama by ten or twelve percentage points in terms of delegates or popular vote. In numerical terms the race is tight. It's when you take time into consideration that things look so grim for her. To use a metaphor I heard one talking head employ over the weekend, Hillary Clinton is running out of runway.
Anyway, all that said, the above scenario transpires only if Clinton goes two for two today. I think there's about a 95% chance that won't happen. My reading of the tea leaves tells me there's a good chance she gets crushed in North Carolina, and an even chance she loses Indiana. And again, losing even just one of these states means it's not just the beginning of the end for her, but likely the end of the end (or very near to it).
NC will be close, the Clintons campaigned hard there. Plus Bill Clinton ( HRC's rural hitman) has been making eight appearances per day in small towns. These towns rarely see a former president so it is a big deal. Obama is only one person so he can only do so much.
NC will be close, the Clintons campaigned hard there. Plus Bill Clinton ( HRC's rural hitman) has been making eight appearances per day in small towns. These towns rarely see a former president so it is a big deal. Obama is only one person so he can only do so much.
I predict that I am going to purchase yet another delicious pack of Fruit Stripe gum this evening from the corner store.
Black voter turnout and bloc voting in North Carolina should prop Obama up enough to keep him from freefall.
Sure hope he can get his act together by November because right now he looks like a whipped dog.
Jasper,
In Indiana, HRC has been ahead in the polls. I think her margin will be in double digits because Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos is in full force. There have been reports of this going on.
Jasper,
In Indiana, HRC has been ahead in the polls. I think her margin will be in double digits because Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos is in full force. There have been reports of this going on.
Hillary Clinton running a third party campaign only makes sense if you assume that she is motivated not merely by ambition, but actual spite and malice directed at Obama and/or the Democratic Party.
Yeah, I am assuming that. If the supers get together tomorrow, or early June, and tell Hilary - "look, that's it, you're done, stop it" but the popular vote is still close and national polls still show her with a lead over Obama, I can imagine she will feel that she lost unfairly and is being mistreated. Maybe I'm projecting onto Hilary what her supporters seem to feel, but there's a big element of self-pity in her campaign that makes it seem conceivable she could lash out at the party that's "moved to far to the left." I'm not saying she would win as a 3rd party candidate, I'm just wondering if she's crazy and angry enough to try.
I'm sensing a Gravel comeback.
Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos is in full force. There have been reports of this going on.
From whom? I have seen nothing credible that this has had any significant impact anywhere. It seems unreasonable to me to think that Limbaugh's audience is rabid enough in enough numbers (I know he has a large audience, but like anything else a lot of people listen to his show simply out of habit, and even many who agree with him would probably not be inclined to take the time out of their day to take the action he's asking for) in any given state to make any measurable impact.
Tuesday Hoosierblogging:
"Clinton will win Indiana by a larger margin than Obama wins North Carolina."
This is extremely unlikely, and Clinton would be justified in calling the day a "victory" if it happens.
The polling on Indiana has been all over the map, presumably because nobody from out-of-state has bothered to poll Indiana Democrats since the 1960s and their models are all guesswork. But I don't see Hillary winning by more than 5 or 6 points, and I wouldn't be surprised if this goes down to the wire. The key difference between IN and PA is that Indiana is a heavily Republican state that simply doesn't have as many of the white, working-class Democrats that Clinton relies on, and a substantial percentage of them are in the Chicago area to boot.
When the early returns are coming in, look for 3 things:
1. Obama should win Marion, Lake, and Monroe counties by at least 10%, and he probably needs to carry St. Joseph County (South Bend) and keep Allen and Tippecanoe Counties close. If not, he's in trouble.
2. Clinton needs to rack up large margins down South. I'd especially look at Vanderburgh County (Evansville) and Clark County (Louisville suburbs). If she isn't winning by 15% or so, she needs to make up those votes somewhere else.
3. Then there's suburban Indy -- especially Hamilton, Hendricks, and Johnson Counties which are the fastest-growing and wealthiest parts of the state, but where registered Democrats are outnumbered by squirrels. Crossover Independents and Republicans will dominate the vote there. If Obama wins a couple of these with a healthy turnout, I like his chances to pull off the upset.
Okay, I'm a pretty solid Obama supporter. But this Operation Chaos stuff is stupid. Rush Limbaugh had absolutely zero influence within his own party's primary -- every time he rallied the forces for His Man Mitt against Apostate John, whether in Florida or California or elsewhere, Romney lost.
So given that he doesn't have enough dedicated dittos to swing the Republican elections, what makes people think he can control the Democratic primary?
I think Matt's probably right. It'll be a split and things will continue as is. It would be great for Barack to take both states, and if he did, I think the pressure on Hillary to withdraw would be enormous. I ain't holding my breath for that, though.
I do wonder, at this point, what Hillary supporters in the late primary states are thinking. Obviously they like Hillary and voters should vote their conscience and all that. But I'm a former Edwards supporter who then leaned Hillary for a long while and was disgusted by so much of the Hillary hate from the Obama supporting left. However, starting a month or so back I just faced the music and realized that a) there was no way she could win, b) BHO was a great candidate, and c) the best thing for the party at this point would be to get behind a winner and go after McCain.
So I guess what I'm wondering is why more voters in PA, Indiana, and the rest aren't thinking strategically at this point. Surly most Democratic voters realize that HRC doesn't stand a chance at winning the nomination. Why aren't more of them breaking for Obama? I just can't see why you'd vote for Hillary at this late date.
Oh, and Tim K, please keep your sexual fantasies to yourself.
I played with the delegate counter at slate. Giving them each a 6 point win today, if Clinton wins the remaining contests 85-15, she still won't quite catch Obama in pledged delegates.
The spin will be just as Matt says. But without huge whopping victories in each--70 to 30 to potentially catch up, 65 to 35 for me to admit she has any sort of shot at catching up--even a good showing means she's far, far behind. And the number of unpledged supers (who have not seemed desperate to endorse her) outnumbers the remaining pledged delegates to be won.
Vanya, months ago I decided Hillary would continue on through Obama's inauguration, clinging to his trouser cuffs and shrieking "he's unelectable, I tell you!!!!" even as he took the oath of office. The supers find this a less disturbing picture than I do, it seems. But I still don't see any sign she'll ever quit. She'll owe it to herself to self-actualize.
However, a third-party run is less likely because you need to get on the ballot early in some states.
IN:
Clinton 56%
Obama 44%
NC:
Obama 54%
Clinton 46%
"To use a metaphor I heard one talking head employ over the weekend, Hillary Clinton is running out of runway."
Down 10, 1:45 to go. It really is about time. Unless Team Clinton gets a bunch of steals, unless Team Obama misses a boatload of free throws (umm, Memphis?), unless Team Clinton throws in several threes in a row, unless the ref swallows the whistle and lets one side engage in serial mugging ... oh yeah ...
Meanwhile, Gov. Mike Easley, the nation's most invisible governor (8 years in office, barely a press conference or public appearance unless there's a hurricane about) is everywhere. Everywhere, all over the Hillary campaign. I have to say, their ads seem to have swamped Obama's in the past 48.
Obama by 4-6 in NC. I gotta go vote ...
In Indiana, HRC has been ahead in the polls. I think her margin will be in double digits...
I understand that a number of polls have shown Clinton ahead in Indiana. I think she'll likely win there (although I'd give her something like a 60% shot, and I don't regard her as a heavy favorite). I think there's a good chance of an Obama upset in the Hoosier state, and in any event I don't expect a Clinton victory there will be in the double digits. Her margin in Pennsylvania was only nine points, and Indiana is both a younger state than PA and partly lies within the orbit of the Chicago media market. Its primary is also open to non-Democrats, isn't it? All these factors help Senator Obama. I'll predict a four point win for HRC in Indiana, and a nine point win for Obama in NC, pretty quickly followed by substantial and near race-ending SD movement for the latter.
Indiana is basketball country. I predict better-than-expected showing by the candidate with the best jumpshot.
In NH calif Nv Ohio and PA (all Hillary wins) the polls consistaantly understated her margins so look for that tendency again: Hillary by 10 -15 in indiana.
Matt drudge has often been where hillary's campaign plants stories so do not believe the article there on his site that says a 15% loss there- that is to falsely reassure obama supporters that it is a slam dunk. Expect it to be within three and possibly a win.
Under-reported and underappreciated is that hillary was 5 10 % down in Ind before PA and she's fought her way back.
Also under - reported and under-appreciated is that she was down 20 -15% in NC before PA so getting close now is a huge deal.
The wright mess is more potent than obama lovers admit so look for bad news for obama lovers tonight.
you guys have psyched yourselves out before.
In your dreams, Petey. The only way for HRC to win Indiana by 12 is for my dead ancestors to rise from the grave and shamble over to the nearest polling place. And I suspect they'd all vote for McCain when they got to town anyway.
LarryM, I think you're right about the possible media narrative. Which is why it would greatly behoove the undeclared supers, who tomorrow will outnumber the unallotted pledged delegates, to start unifying behind a candidate--so long as they hide under desks, it let's the media tale of Hillary about to pull a comeback continue unimpeded--they aren't trying to shape the story.
Having 20% superdelegates was really stupid. But they did it, and short of not attending the convention there is no way any super can avoid voting, and having their vote matter. Just accept it--having more time to lick wounds before the convention is a good idea. (And remember, Huckabee won several states after he was mathematically counted out. Moaning about WV and KY is uncalled for--the nation is not Kentucky.)
Does anyone have a suggestion what WOULD make Clinton drop out? She can raise money from a dedicated base even when losing, a Ron Paul-esque feat. She can avoid paying bills and raise a few more thousands each month, or give herself another loan, so lack of money won't do it. I don't think resounding defeats in the remaining states and a prompt resolution of MI and FL would do it....I don't think anything will do it.
I'm going to say Obama wins NC by 12, HRC wins IN by 4.
The press will pronounce this as a huge loss by Obama, that it shows that Wright fundamentally alienated people, and that he can't win The Only Voters Who Matter (white, rural, older.)
At the same time, they'll grouse about Clinton's dwindling opportunities to make delegate gains, portraying her as a power-mad harpy, clinging to her last desperate chance for the nomination.
Then they will fantasize about a convention brawl.
Tom Brokaw will warble that he's never seen anything like it. Tim Russert will furrow his brow in distaste at the candidates and wonder what it says about them that neither can win. Bill Schneider will patiently regurgitate a watered-down pablum of common wisdom that may have been relevant sometime in March. Chris Matthews will manage to say something that offends any thinking person. CNN's county-by-county map analyst will again seem to think that sparsity adds weight to votes and declare Indiana a blowout for Clinton.
And the final verdict, they will say, is that the real winner is the upright and very serious John McCain.
Jasper- A month and a half ago the independents and republicans allowed to vote in open Dem contests helped obama but recently the polls have independents split either 50 -50 or favoring Hillary. So this is no longer a benefit to obama.
Hillary Clinton is deeply unpopular here in NC. I'll be surprised if she ended up within double digits.
If Hillary takes Indiana with a commanding lead and just barely loses North Carolina, the superdelegates need to start defecting from Camp Obama and join Camp Clinton.
The Clintonista Post's prediction for tonight: Obama Campaign = the Red Star Line
See what the winning side looks like at The Clintonista Post
Er, single digits. Safe to say it won't be a triple-digit victory for anybody.
If Hillary takes Indiana with a commanding lead and just barely loses North Carolina, the superdelegates need to start defecting from Camp Obama and join Camp Clinton.
The Clintonista Post's prediction for tonight: Obama Campaign = the Red Star Line
See what the winning side looks like at The Clintonista Post
If Hillary takes Indiana with a commanding lead and just barely loses North Carolina, the superdelegates need to start defecting from Camp Obama and join Camp Clinton.
The Clintonista Post's prediction for tonight: Obama Campaign = the Red Star Line
See what the winning side looks like at The Clintonista Post
Jasper,
With respect to the Chicago area, one local poll showed HRC ahead by 11 pts. She has made 20 appearances in that area. Obama has only made ONE appearance. HRC has been helped by Bill but the Obama campaign has been getting complacent.
In PA, Obama barely campaigned in Philly. Yes, he won the area but the campaign was anticipating a very high black turnout but in actuality it was lower than expected. When the Obama campaign realized that turnout wasn't as high as expected, the candidate himself made appearances on various urban radio stations 2 hours before the polls closed.
As for Operation Chaos, you guys need to go the Al Giodarno's The Field.
The Clintonista Post, I like how you got the address of your own blog wrong in 50% of your links. With that level of competence, I can only assume you are a paid Clinton staffer.
Drudge is reporting Clinton campaign sources fear a double digit loss in NC.
That's bullshit expectations management, straight from Ickes and Wolfson.
I'm inclined to agree with Matt on this one. If NC and Indiana were on separate weeks, Obama would have campaigned differently in NC: by not coming to the west of the state -- Michelle held a GOTV rally, while the entire Clinton family came west on a number of occasions -- he's probably lost a few votes to 'staying at home'. Plus, as Micheline said, Bill Clinton has shown up in every little nowhere town in NC over the past couple of weeks, and Easley has limped and quacked around the state even as the two gubenatorial candidates backed Obama.
But Indiana was the big prize for the Obama camp, and that's where the candidate spent most of his time.
So, my gut tells me NC will be much tighter than the early polls: six points as the gap, possibly closer than that. I haven't a clue about Indiana.
Jasper,
With respect to the Chicago area, one local poll showed HRC ahead by 11 pts. She has made 20 appearances in that area. Obama has only made ONE appearance. HRC has been helped by Bill but the Obama campaign has been getting complacent.
In PA, Obama barely campaigned in Philly. Yes, he won the area but the campaign was anticipating a very high black turnout but in actuality it was lower than expected. When the Obama campaign realized that turnout wasn't as high as expected, the candidate himself made appearances on various urban radio stations 2 hours before the polls closed.
As for Operation Chaos, you guys need to go the Al Giodarno's The Field.
Does anyone have a suggestion what WOULD make Clinton drop out?
She will drop out when and only when Obama has enough delegates (pledged plus announced supers) to win even with Florida and Michigan counted.
But the only way that that happens is if, after the last primary, there are a flood of defections of supers from Hillary to Obama.
Yes, I really do think she will drop out if that happens.
Jasper,
With respect to the Chicago area, one local poll showed HRC ahead by 11 pts. She has made 20 appearances in that area. Obama has only made ONE appearance. HRC has been helped by Bill but the Obama campaign has been getting complacent.
In PA, Obama barely campaigned in Philly. Yes, he won the area but the campaign was anticipating a very high black turnout but in actuality it was lower than expected. When the Obama campaign realized that turnout wasn't as high as expected, the candidate himself made appearances on various urban radio stations 2 hours before the polls closed.
As for Operation Chaos, you guys need to go the Al Giodarno's The Field.
My prediction: Whichever of them wins today and whichever wins in November, Hillary will still be running against President Obama or President McCain well into 2009.
Hillary is only a "heavy" favorite in Indiana because she ate too many pieces of cheesecake last night.
Get over it, Clintonista Post - she's going to win Indiana, Obama will win NC, the status quo will remain, and Obama will end up winning the primary. Clinton has had virtually no chance of winning for some time now....and her negative, Roveish campaigning has ruined her legacy for many Democrats like myself who voted for Bill Clinton in the 90's and remember his presidency fondly.
"In your dreams, Petey. The only way for HRC to win Indiana by 12 is for my dead ancestors to rise"
I'd be surprised if Obama gets up to 46% in IN. He generally loses almost all the late deciders, and he's been stuck around 42% - 43% in most polls.
The way to predict primaries post-WI has been to take Obama's number from the final SUSA poll and add a point or two, giving all the other undecideds to Clinton. That gets Obama to 44% in IN.
As an Obama supporter it pains me to say this, but I think Petey has the final outcomes for both states about right. I would even go further and say that his HRC: IN +12 prediction has a better chance of being correct than his BO: NC +8 prediction - with the NC prediction too bullish for Obama. (Even though Ygelsias did not give specifics I think Petey's prediction is close to what he had in mind.) My final prediction:
IN
Clinton 54.8%
Obama 45.2%
Like PA, Obama just manages to keep Clinton's win under 10 points.
NC
Obama 50.9%
Clinton 49.1%
Obama limps to victory largely due to the under-the-radar efforts of Bill Clinton and the Rev. Wright issue. I predict that the biggest issue the pundits will talk about tonight is how the Rev. Wright saga of the past few weeks not only impacted white voters, but actually hurt Obama marginally more among black voters (that is, instead of getting 90% of black voters support he gets something more like 85% in NC). Why? The saga played into some black voters lingering doubts that a black man can be elected (especially among older black voters, particularly older women black voters). Also, I think that some black voters agree with Rev. Wright's worldview and will punish Obama for denoucing the Reverend.
P.S. I hope this is the last time that I ever agree with Petey.
As for Operation Chaos, you guys need to go the Al Giodarno's The Field.
All that says is to listen to Limbaugh between now and 3pm, which I can't do at work and wouldn't do anyway. Am I safe to assume that it's Rush Limbaugh talking about how awesome Rush Limbaugh is, with a steady stream of calls from dittoheads reporting to their "Commander in Chief" that they've "performed their duty"? If it is, that doesn't add up to very many people.
I hate having such low expectations for my candidate but I don't think it will be a great day for Obama. He'll pull out NC but it will be single digits with the press reporting it as a big comeback for Her Royal Highness.
The difference? The entire Clinton family. All three - don't forget Chelsea - have been working their butts off. Check out the graph in yesterday's NY Times - they've made far more appearances than Obama. Moreover, there've been lots of reports over the last few days of white, rural voters saying they'll vote Clinton simply because Bill or Chelsea showed up. This was the trend in both NC and IN.
Then there's been her blatant pandering. Much as I hate to give HRH credit, her move to join McCain on the gax tax - not to mention her comments on Iran and OPEC - all brilliant, deeply cynical politics. She's counting on voters who are willfully ignorant of how government, even the world, works - that there's zero to no chance of any of her promises being realized. It doesn't matter, though, because the primary will be behind her.
As to Operation Chaos, I don't know. My sister saw it in effect in San Antonio. From the IN press I've seen, it's more purely disaffected Republicans who want change. Clinton's their safe choice.
Forget Wright - it's past time that everyone (especially the media) be honest about the fact that a lot of white voters still won't vote for a black man. That's why West Virginia will be a landslide for Clinton; Kentucky, too. There's been talk about how voters don't like to be called racist. Well, maybe it's time to quit enabling them and tell the truth.
Petey,
That method works retrospectively, but (a) it's a pretty small sample size, and (b) a good statistical fit retrospectively far from guarantees an accurate prediction prospectively.
In Texas, Ohio, and PA, the late polling and news cycle were quite favorable to Hillary. This time, if one looks at the last 3-4 days, the polling is trending towards Obama (RCP: Indiana average, Obama narrowed the gap by a point over the weekend, NC Obama widened his lead by a point over the weekend). It's also significant that SUSA was pretty much right in the middle of the polls for PA, OH and TX, whereas they are more of a Clinton outlier for IN and NC.
A better fit might be the RCP averages. Using RCP averages, and assuming late breakers go to Hillary in a ratio similar to recent contests, one could project an 8 point Clinton win in IN. But that IMO still most likely will underestimate Obama's performance, both for trend reasons (above) and because, while the media narrative the last few days has been pro-Hillary, there haven't been any Obama gaffs or other bad news for the last few days. That was not the case pre-Ohio/Texas (the NAFTA comments), or pre-PA ("bitter"), where Obama suffered a bad news cycle right before the primaries. In this case, the last (substantively) negative event for Obama was the Wright comments, but that was days ago and already seems to have dissipated.
But we will know in about 8 hours. What's interesting to me, though, is that even your relatively pro-Hillary prediction wouldn't be the game changer she needs to change the super delegate dynamic. For that she needs a win in NC, and that isn't happening. It looked barely possible last week, but not now.
Petey:
I'd be surprised if Obama gets up to 46% in IN. He generally loses almost all the late deciders, and he's been stuck around 42% - 43% in most polls.
Hey Know-It-All, but Indiana is next to Illinois. Remember that was the reason you gave why Obama spanked Edwards in Iowa? Obama proved the polls wrong on that occasion, as did Hillary in New Hampshire.
What's also curious is why Petey isn't predicting a better Hillary performance in NC. While I think Obama will do a little better than Petey does (10% edge vs 8% edge), one could certainly justify predicting a closer race in NC than 8%. (His SUSA methodology would predict a 3 or 4% Obama win. Heck, some of Obama's supporters in this thread are predicting a closer NC race than is Petey!)
The cynic in me says that Petey thinks that Obama will win NC by about 4%, but wants to come back tomorrow and claim that Hillary did even better than he expected. But if that's the case, why go out on a limb with a 12 point IN prediction?
Here's a link to the Indy Star which has comments made by those who already voted in the Indiana primary.
Does anyone remember a spreadsheet that the Obama campaign "inadvertantly" leaked in January that predicted all the states? What did that thing say? It seems to have been more accurate than any of the polls or pundits so far.
"His SUSA methodology would predict a 3 or 4% Obama win [in NC]."
I think that particular methodology doesn't work as well in the Black Belt states.
Obama's going to pick up more of the undecideds in states where more of the undecideds are AA's.
Plus, I have less faith in the reliability of SUSA's turnout model in that region. If Obama really does end up at 52% or 53% in NC, I'll start thinking the SUSA folks are actually magicians.
-----
"Does anyone remember a spreadsheet that the Obama campaign "inadvertantly" leaked in January that predicted all the states? What did that thing say?"
The Magical Plouffe Spreadsheet says Obama wins Indiana by 7, which gives you an idea of how far the Obama brand has fallen since February, and also lets you understand why they made the incredibly bad decision to have the candidate repeatedly saying last week that Indiana was the "tie-breaker".
And I am curious Petey - a few weeks ago you abandoned your purely bitter, temper tantrum mode, obviously believing at the time that Obama had it in the bag, but not happy about it. You shifted to your cat ate the canary, almost conciliatory in your own way (deigning to suggest that Obama would get the VP slot), ostensibly convinced that Obama's candidacy was headed down the tubes mode.
Okay, so far, wholly irrational in many respects but at least somewhat consistent with the dynamic of the race. But now comes the key day of the race, you concede that Hillary is likely to lose big in NC, thus not getting the game changing win she needs to change the dynamic - I'm surprised you aren't back in bitter mode.
I mean, at this point what is the scenario for a Hillary victory from your perspective, apart from all or most of the supers all at once finally buying into Hillary's electability narrative, without any changed facts on the ground to justify such a shift? I mean, I know that's the scenario that most Hillary supporters are clinging to, but you, while being a deeply immoral nutjob, don't seem stupid enough to buy into that particular piece of magical thinking.
Of course, the Petey brand isn't so hot these days. Nor is NC likely to be a 'game changer', which was a bad choice from Camp Hillarity.
The early voting returns from the NCBOE are... let's say, thorough. As in: a direct marketer's dream. (Though the state rolls are, admittedly, public domain.) I think this demographic analysis of the early voting records is close to the mark.
For un-conventional free thinkers you folks here buy all the convential cnn msnbc thinking and polls. they've been off all season.
Hillary pulls out NC and kills OB in IND.
see you tomorrow.
"I should make an official prediction about tonight, right? Well, clearly the universe is conspiring to make this primary last as long as possible. So what's going to happen is that (of course) Clinton will win [.....] and Obama will win [......]. But Clinton will win [......] by a larger margin than Obama wins [......], and Clinton's supporters will note in somber tones that Obama lost the [......] vote in [......]. At the same time, because [......] has substantially more delegates than [......], Obama will actually make a small gain in net delegates causing his supporters (i.e. me) to become further enraged at Clinton's refusal to admit that she's lost and the press' insistence on indulging the idea that there's real doubt about the ultimate outcome."
I made it into a form letter for you Matt!
"A total of 218 delegates are at stake in the balloting Tuesday, 134 in North Carolina and 84 in Indiana. After those two states have had their say, only six primaries will remain: West Virginia next week, followed by Kentucky and Oregon on May 20, Puerto Rico on June 1 and then Montana and South Dakota on June 3."
Larry, Petey's just being a dick, so he can throw in little asides like "how far the Obama brand has fallen" and "lets you understand why they made the incredibly bad decision".
I think John Edwards' brand took the biggest hit. Where is he?
Peter K.,
I know he is being a dick, but which kind of dick? His change in demeanor a few weeks ago suggests that he really believed that Clinton was going to pull it out (else why not stick with his "screw you guys, I'm going home (and voting for McCain)" routine?)
Now that it's become apparent to even die hard Hillary supporters, at least the sentient ones, that, absent an upset in NC (which Petey doesn't think will happen), the game is over. So why hasn't Petey resorted to his petulant Fuck you mode?
So why hasn't Petey resorted to his petulant Fuck you mode?
He's hoping to scrape a few pennies on the inter-day movement in InTrade?
"I mean, at this point what is the scenario for a Hillary victory from your perspective"
Win Indiana big tonight, which is breaking through the lines of The Magical Plouffe Spreadsheet. Win WV and KY big, by far larger margins than The Magical Plouffe Spreadsheet envisioned. Win OR, which again breaks through the lines of The Magical Plouffe Spreadsheet. Probably win MT too. Continue to do better than Obama in head-to-head polling with McCain.
It ends up working to win the nomination in terms of the real math, even if it doesn't compute for those propagandized with The Plouffe "Math".
"else why not stick with his "screw you guys, I'm going home (and voting for McCain)" routine?"
I've never voted for a Republican in my life, and I've never asserted that I'd vote for McCain since that's not something I'd entertain doing.
I'm part of the Democratic Party - a Party whose registered voters have chosen Clinton over Obama by a pretty large margin so far in this primary race.
I understand that you folks are going to try to steal the nomination. Having 45% of the Party with you, I can basically understand your position. You're close, so you're going to try. I don't like it, but I understand.
Feel free to do your best to get to 2,209. Even waste all summer trying to do so if you don't care about the damage. But I'm standing with the majority faction of the Party, and feel pretty good about that.
And I support giving Obama the VP slot because I think it's best for the Party. Unlike the Obama zealots, I understand that a very real chunk of the Party supports someone other than the candidate I support. Eight years in the Naval Observatory should teach Obama that he ought to run with Democratic policy goals instead of against those policy goals, which would leave him as a perfectly acceptable bandleader in 2016.
It ends up working to win the nomination in terms of the real math, even if it doesn't compute for those propagandized with The Plouffe "Math".
Sigh, Petey, I thought you were at least half smart, if nothing else.
Two problems with your scenario, both regarding the dynamics of the race. First and foremost, there is really nothing there to change the current dynamic. If all your arguments were convincing to the supers, then why has Obama been winning far more supers than Hillary of late, and why have all reports of the supers thinking suggested in the strongest terms that they will support the person who has the lead in committed delegates? Specifically, what new facts are going to gain Hillary the vast majority of the currently undeclared supers? Because it's pretty clear that the current dynamics of the race favor Obama among the supers.
Secondly is Oregon. Frankly, I think a Hillary win in NC is probably more likely than a Hillary win there. Obama has a big lead in the polls, and the Demographics for him there are much better than (for example)Indiana. Again, that could change, but what facts on the ground do you think will cause a change? It's just two weeks out.
I've never voted for a Republican in my life, and I've never asserted that I'd vote for McCain since that's not something I'd entertain doing.
I'm too lazy to search the archives to refute this, but hopefully someone will be bored enough to do so.
"Secondly is Oregon. Frankly, I think a Hillary win in NC is probably more likely than a Hillary win there. "
You're stuck in a February mindset. The race has shifted.
Oregon would've been an Obama gimmie in February. In May, not so much. It'll be a good test for both campaigns.
"I'm too lazy to search the archives to refute this, but hopefully someone will be bored enough to do so."
Go search the fucking archives yourself, LarryM. I'm a better and smarter lefty than you. You vote Republican when it pleases you. I don't. That's why you're not part of the majority faction of the Democratic Party and I am.
Win OR, which again breaks through the lines of The Magical Plouffe Spreadsheet.
And now I'm certain Petey's on crack. McCain consistently leads Hillary in OR and WA, which fucks up the Hillary 'Kerry +150,000 Ohio voters' strategy, and belies all the whining about Obama victories in red states.
Democrats in the Pacific NW know that, too.
I support giving Obama the VP slot because I think it's best for the Party.
And I'm sure you also support patting cute black kids on the head, you condescending twat.
Now, for the Patent Petey Eradicator: how's Hillary going to get her healthcare plan through the Senate, given this year's Senate contests are mostly in states where Obama is better placed?
and watch Petey dodge and run...
Petey:
I'm part of the Democratic Party - a Party whose registered voters have chosen Clinton over Obama by a pretty large margin so far in this primary race.
You say this and then suggest how Republican Indiana votes somehow matters? So, you don't agree with the Party's decision in some states to have open primaries and allow Independents to vote? You don't agree with the decision of Democratic parties in some states to hold caucuses? Well, tough shit, that train has left the station. It's too late now, those were the agreed-upon rules. You can be a sore loser/cry baby all you want, but it won't help.
This guy rips Clinton a new one. But he predicts Clinton will go to the convention and file lawsuits BEYOND the convention in order to insure that Obama is defeated and she gets another shot in 2012.
In reality, of course, by 2012, she will be treated like Ralph Nader.
Democrats do have a nominee
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/JE06Aa01.html
Money Quotes:
Hundreds of thousands of Democrats will vote in the United States presidential elections in Indiana and North Carolina on Tuesday, and those results won't matter.
In her Pennsylvania victory speech, Clinton said, "The American people don't quit, and they deserve a president that won't quit." In the midst of her vacuous, vapid chatter most notable for begging for donations - by a candidate whose family income in recent years tops US$100 million - that line stood out. Except for the disgraced Richard Nixon facing impeachment and likely conviction, when has an American president quit?
The rush of superdelegates to Obama, including the high profile defection of former Democratic national committee chairman Joe Andrew last week, is a plea to end the increasingly harmful nomination fight and unite. But the Clintons hold the only votes that matter on this topic, and they're already united behind Hillary. It's up to the party to fall into line, or be destroyed resisting.
Clinton's case - that she's faced down the Republican attack machine for more than a decade - is at best half-true. Running as a Democrat in New York is hardly equivalent to running for president. In her first national race, facing a largely Democratic electorate - some states allow independents and Republicans to vote in Democratic primaries - Clinton is running a close second. Can she expect to do better against McCain?
In the general election, Clinton will also confront vicious attacks from Republicans far beyond anything she's seeing in primaries. Since she claims Bill Clinton's presidency on her resume, Hillary must carry the baggage of those eight years. As Clinton's fortunes rise, no doubt a factory is turning out life size Monica Lewinsky blowup dolls for general election hecklers.
Republicans will again blame the Clinton administration for the September 11, 2001, attacks (while taking credit that "we haven't been hit again") and portray withdrawal from Iraq as another Clinton move to weaken America and embolden terrorists. Hillary provides additional targets such as her "sniper fire" landing in Bosnia and her dismal failure to reform healthcare as first lady. Most important, polls indicate 58% of voters don't trust her, a number Republicans will exploit relentlessly.
Belushi doctrine
The race is all about the Clintons, and they won't walk away until they're strolling back to their old house on Pennsylvania Avenue following Hillary's oath of office. Clinton's "quit" comment served notice that she subscribes to John Belushi's declaration in the film Animal House: "Nothing is over until we say it's over." Democrats might wish they saw this brand of grit and determination and tenacity during the 2000 Florida vote count, but that was about succeeding a Clinton, not a Clinton succeeding.
The peculiar architecture of the 2008 nomination race makes it simple for Clinton to keep fighting until she wins. Since the race this year is too close to be settled by pledged delegates, then the primary season is simply the preliminary round. Clinton will finish that round narrowly behind Obama in all likelihood. Democratic national committee chairman Howard "The Scream" Dean wants superdelegates to declare their choices shortly after the final primary on June 3. Despite Clinton's recently electoral successes, superdelegates disturbed by the negativity of Clinton's campaign could put Obama over the top.
But, the Clintons will fight on to the convention in August, assuring supporters that superdelegates can change their minds. (Clinton's side also contends, less convincingly, that even pledged delegates can vote as they please, even on the first ballot.) No matter what the delegate count says on the eve of the convention, the Clintons still have two extraordinarily potent weapons at their disposal: Michigan and Florida.
Clinton won unsanctioned primaries in those two states that all candidates agreed would not count. The Clintons and their campaign will mount a convention floor fight to seat those states' delegations and count their votes. When that fails, expect a full court press - lawsuits in every court they can find, at every level, for every reason. Legal precedents say political parties can set their own rules of conduct, but the Clintons are bound to find a judge - it only takes one, and Bill appointed plenty - to see things their way.
If the Democrats want to fight, lawsuits can tie up the nomination past election day, or at least long enough to ensure that any Democratic candidate not named Clinton will lose, and that Hillary will get the nomination unopposed in 2012. Rest assured, the Clintons have the chutzpah to make it happen.
The Clintons are confident that, with an unpopular war and a lousy economy under a Republican president, come November enough Democratic voters will hold their noses and pull the lever for Hillary, putting the good of the country and the party above their personal desires, something we've yet to see from a Clinton. At some stage, the Democratic leadership and voters will understand it's not worth the trouble to fight the Clintons, relent, and give Hillary the nomination. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em, even if you can no longer stand 'em.
"a Party whose registered voters have chosen Clinton over Obama by a pretty large margin so far in this primary race."
Similarly a party that in many instances decided to hold open primaries.
"You say this and then suggest how Republican Indiana votes somehow matters?"
I'm not sure where I suggested that.
I will note that in pretty much all available polling, Clinton is cleaning Obama's clock in the Democratic vote in Indiana, while running even with him in the non-Democratic vote in Indiana.
We'll have the corrected exit polls in 12 hours, and I feel reasonably confident that Clinton will have beaten Obama among Democratic voters in Indiana by 15+ points.
I feel reasonably confident that Clinton will have beaten Obama among Democratic voters in Indiana by 15+ points.
Sweet. That means we should totally kick ass in November, when only Democrats vote.
"Sweet. That means we should totally kick ass in November, when only Democrats vote."
No. Everyone votes in November. But Clinton does far better than Obama against McCain in PA, OH, and FL, three states the Obama zealots keep saying we can write off.
The fact that Clinton does better than Obama among Democrats and does better than Obama in general election matchups is the reason that June is not going to be kind to the upscale goo-goos like Matthew who support the candidate opposed to universal healthcare.
Clinton is cleaning Obama's clock in the Republicans voting Democratic vote in Indiana
Fixed yer typo, there.
And for the 29th time, Petey runs away from the question about the Senate and the battleground in November, because he realises the electoral map blows away his policy rationale for supporting Clinton.
What a sad, Mark Pennish piss-stain he is.
Ed Rendell says the Democrat will win PA regardless of the nominee. And it's my feeling that that's true in OH as well, and untrue in FL. Hillary has no chance in a bunch of states that Obama looks strong in.
And mandating that people buy crappy HMO coverage or risk penalty is a poor substitute for "universal health care." I live in Massachusetts and think the system sucks.
"And mandating that people buy crappy HMO coverage or risk penalty is a poor substitute for "universal health care"
The Edwards/Clinton plan mandates automatic enrollment, not penalties. You can't avoid coverage under the Edwards/Clinton plan, hence penalties never come into play, and hence the moniker "universal coverage".
I understand that you're more comfortable with Obama's Harry & Louise attacks on universal healthcare. I'd guess you probably don't like the universal component of Social Security either. Upscale goo-goos prefer to see sick folks and old folks broke rather than to stand up for universal programs.
But that's you're not in the mainstream of Democratic policy opinion, and that's why you back Barack Obama and his General Electric approved anti-worker program.
You can stand with Andrew Sullivan and Marty Peretz and Matthew Yglesias. I'll stand with the majority of the Democratic Party. And we'll see who wins.
You're right. I'm an upscale goo-goo who just plain doesn't like old or sick people. But that's all the commentary from me today; I have to go clean up all the trash that's always blowing into my front yard from Main St. before I mow my crab grass.
Make it 30 times. You'd think that if Petey could answer, he would.
1. Where are the 270 electoral votes for Clinton coming from? Give me a delta based upon Kerry in 2004.
2. Where are the Senate votes for the Clinton healthcare plan coming from? Give me a delta based upon the current composition.
If you can't get from 1. to 2., your talk about voting for Hillary based upon healthcare is ever so much horseshit.
Accountability! Here are the predictions made in this thread, in order of their appearance. Quotes are exact except as noted otherwise. I have compressed line breaks and replaced with other punctuation for brevity.
Matthew Yglesias: Clinton will win Indiana and Obama will win North Carolina. But Clinton will win Indiana by a larger margin than Obama wins North Carolina.
Scientific: Obama in NC by double digits (barely), and in IN by 1 or 2 points.
Charlotte Durham: Obama in NC by no less than 8... HRC in IN by no more than six
Cynic: Obama wins NC by a big margin... Hillary wins Indiana, but accrues an even smaller delegate edge
LarryM: 10% Obama win in NC and 1% Hillary win in Indiana
John: Obama should verge on winning by double digits [in NC] ... I have much less of a feel for Indiana, but I don't think Clinton will win by a huge amount there.
NattyB: IN: HRC + 4. NC: BHO + 8
Jasper: My reading of the tea leaves tells me there's a good chance she gets crushed in North Carolina, and an even chance she loses Indiana.
Micheline: NC will be close, the Clintons campaigned hard there ... In Indiana, HRC has been ahead in the polls. I think her margin will be in double digits
LaFollette Progressive: I don't see Hillary winning by more than 5 or 6 points [in IN].
Petey: IN: Clinton 56%, Obama 44%. NC: Obama 54%, Clinton 46%
drinkof: Obama by 4-6 in NC.
Michael c.: Hillary by 10 -15 in indiana.
Royko: Obama wins NC by 12, HRC wins IN by 4.
apostropher: I'll be surprised if [Clinton] ended up [losing by only] single digits [in NC]. (paraphrase including a correction apostropher later made)
pseudonymous in nc: [NC will have] six points as the gap, possibly closer than that. I haven't a clue about Indiana.
Andy: IN: Clinton 54.8%, Obama 45.2%. NC: Obama 50.9%, Clinton 49.1%
Judy: [Obama will] pull out NC but it will be single digits.
Editorial comment: Royko looks eerily accurate if the exits are to be believed.
I'm still thinking I may be the closest overall when the dust settles, though hoping I'm not (I'd like to see his current NC lead hold up, which would make me off by 4; I think I'm going to end up dead on regarding IN).
Hey, looks like Matt's wrong! Even better, so is Petey.
I'm too lazy to search the archives to refute this, but hopefully someone will be bored enough to do so.
Posted by LarryM
Are you sure you aren't thinking about Nader? I know Petey has said he'd vote for Nader if Clinton doesn't get nominated.
Clinton does better than Obama among Democrats
I've given up on asking for evidence from Petey, but I'm not sure I even understand the reasoning. When you say this, Petey, are you just throwing out states with open primaries entirely, or counting them by what polls show registered Democrats want, or what?
Well, the votes out in vinegar sauce country held up.
You know, I grew up in NC and I never did learn to like that shredded-pork vinegary BBQ. I like Texas barbecue, God help me.
If I do end up hitting IN exactly, I will beat out Royko, even with NC (fortunately) holding up.
In fairness, though, several other people made similar predictions (John, Cynic, Jasper), but without precise numbers. And if Obama does pull it out in Indiana, Scientific wins.
"In fairness, though, several other people made similar predictions (John, Cynic, Jasper), but without precise numbers. And if Obama does pull it out in Indiana, Scientific wins."
Good job, alll of you. But let's not forget what's important: Petey/Clinton loses. Big.
"In fairness, though, several other people made similar predictions (John, Cynic, Jasper), but without precise numbers. And if Obama does pull it out in Indiana, Scientific wins."
Good job, alll of you. But let's not forget what's important: Petey/Clinton loses. Big.
Comments closed May 20, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
Matt, I have a feeling this is going to be one of those times when it sucks to be right.
Posted by PC | May 6, 2008 10:39 AM