Don Cazayoux wins in Louisiana, expanding the Democrats' congressional majority, and showing that between the low approval ratings for congress and the low approval ratings for the GOP, the GOP is losing. Meanwhile, very narrow popular vote edge for Obama in Guam means the territory's pledged delegates will be split 2-2.
« History of the Euroleague | Main | Gone Too Far »
Results
03 May 2008 11:41 pm
Comments (30)
Both results are bad news for Democrats. Obama's failure to win the white working class in Guam underlines his weakness as a general election candidate and Don Cazayoux will push the Democratic congressional caucus even farther to the left.
It looks like 1968 all over again for Democrats, only worse.
Obama should pick up 3 delegates from Guam vs. 2 for Hillary, because Guam's superdelegate committed to voting with the majority winner.
So, +1 for Obama.
Next on MY: Knick legend Frédéric Weis discusses PM Sarkozy and Vince Carter.
This win in Lousiana for the Democratic candidate is a huge vindication for Obama. The GOP ran all sorts of scare ads trying to link the Dem candidate to Obama. These ads did not work.
In fact, many are saying that the margin of victory for the Dem candidate was the black vote.
This win by the Dem candidate proves that Obama has coattails.
Here's also a test for the media: if Cazayoux had lost, undoubtedly many would have portrayed it as a sign that Obama would be a drag on down ticket candidates in many red districts, white districts, etc. Now that Cazayoux has won, will the media tout this as a sign that Obama is a winner in these type of districts?
cm,
No.
Both results are bad news for Democrats...Don Cazayoux will push the Democratic congressional caucus even farther to the left.
I'm just hoping we Democrats get a lot more of this sort of "bad" news. A few more like this and the GOP will be so far out of power they won't even be able to sustain a filibuster.
Nor should they. It might have mobilized the black vote in East Baton Rouge, which had 62K of the 96K total votes. There are some 90-0 and 105-1 shutouts in those districts. But the story is that Republicans as a whole are unpopular enough that lifelong Repubs are willing to look at the Dem, and further the Jenkins is a complete and utter wanker.
Nor should they. It might have mobilized the black vote in East Baton Rouge, which had 62K of the 96K total votes. There are some 90-0 and 105-1 shutouts in those districts. But the story is that Republicans as a whole are unpopular enough that lifelong Repubs are willing to look at the Dem, and further the Jenkins is a complete and utter wanker.
Her sitede TÜRK Bayrağı kampanyasına destek olmak için TÜRK Bayrağı Bandını sitene ekle. Hem kampanyaya destek ol hemde HİT kazan.
Cazayoux was certainly helped by the fact that Woody Jenkins may be the biggest idiot in public life today. But hey, a win is a win.
I love the excuse that Republicans are losing in their strongholds only because they can't find good candidates willing to run under their banner.
But to get to the important point, will Don Cazayoux be able to cast a super-D vote, and if so who's his man/woman?
PS I'm not saying Robert Powell's post or any other above mine is making any such excuse, it's something I've seen elsewhere.
Barack Obama dodged a bullet in this one and it proved that while the RNC may try to "swift-boat" candidates using Rev. Wright, it will not work given the state of the economy and the war in Iraq. These are the issues people are voting on and these are the issues that people have decided the Republicans are wrong on, totally.
In 2004, at the very least, people felt secure enough in their personal lives. Now, the economy is making everyone regret their choice and the way the war has seemingly spiraled out of control and the recognition that Kerry got a bum rap makes the Republican efforts to demonize Democrats fall flat.
Even in pure red counties.
That's amazing. And speaks to the strength the democratic party has entering November.
Barack Obama dodged a bullet in this one and it proved that while the RNC may try to "swift-boat" candidates using Rev. Wright, it will not work given the state of the economy and the war in Iraq. These are the issues people are voting on and these are the issues that people have decided the Republicans are wrong on, totally.
In 2004, at the very least, people felt secure enough in their personal lives. Now, the economy is making everyone regret their choice and the way the war has seemingly spiraled out of control and the recognition that Kerry got a bum rap makes the Republican efforts to demonize Democrats fall flat.
Even in pure red counties.
That's amazing. And speaks to the strength the democratic party has entering November.
aleks, Cazayoux is now a SD. So far, he's strongly uncommitted. The CW is that he won't endorse anyone, for fear that being tied with either Democrat will undermine him in his district.
I think that's the most likely outcome, but there's another factor in play here. In his primary, Cazayoux (with the help of the DCCC) beat Michael Jackson, about 58-41. Jackson is African-American, and has indicated he's going to be mounting an independent bid in November.
I think there's a chance Cazayoux might endorse Obama to shore up his African-American support and make sure they get to the polls.
Re: It looks like 1968 all over again for Democrats, only worse.
In 1968 the Democrats held the White House and were responsible for an unpopular war. In 2008 the GOP holds the White House and is repsonsible for an unpopular war not to mention a wretched economy.
Who' having a bad year?
http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/3/14110/43644/122/508388 according to this analysis Obama actually picked up two superdelegates from this election.
Interesting tidbit -- over at the National Review, not a word about the Cazayoux's victory, but lots more stuff about Rev. Wright.
Interesting tidbit -- over at the National Review, not a word about the Cazayoux's victory, but lots more stuff about Rev. Wright.
Do we know for a fact that Obama had trouble with 'white working class' vote on Guam? Guam is only 10% white after all so the white vote is not really that important. It seems like the bigger problem for Obama might be that Guam is 85% Catholic and a lot of Catholics appear to have issues with Obama because of his extreme support for abortion.
Given that Clinton was predicted to win in Guam, it looks like she had trouble with voters.
Yes, I think the press conveniently leaves out the fact that Hillary was the favorite to win in Guam.
As to the race in Lousiana, that's one more piece of evidence that the Wright smear on Obama will not work.
I laugh when I read about some conservatives, like those at the National Review, continuing to foment on Wright. If they keep it up the GOP will lose very badly.
I saw how the media idiots this morning were still talking up the Wright controversy as if anyone still cares. The only people still excited were the far right commentators.
Guys, I think TomT was a spoof.
At least I hope so, otherwise he is such a blithering idiot it is amazing he can type.
This is great news, no doubt about it. That being said, you can't just definitely look at the results and say that Obama has positive (or negative) coattails for Democratic congressional candidates, or that the Wright stuff won't hurt Obama's campaign.
It's possible that the ads linking Cazayoux to Barack Obama might have tightened the race considerably, and it's also possible that it backfired and turned out the black vote. I'd like to look at in-depth analysis of the race before making any definitive pronouncements.
Cazayoux will push the Dem house to the left? What the heck are you talking about? Half of his campaign was about how much he loves hunting and family. He ran as a conservative John Breaux style Southern Dem, the kind Mr. Yglesias is fond of complaining about. Protestations to the contrary about how he is setting the Dems up for a jerk to the Left are desperate fantasy.
Real story: Republicans losing a formerly very solid seat. Yes, what people say about Jenkins is true, he is a wanker. 12 years ago, though, he came within a percentage point of beating Senator Mary Landrieu in her first senate bid, and he whipped her in this very district because it is so conservative. The fact that he could no longer carry it does indeed demonstrate fundamental weakness for the GOP in old strongholds.
A possible worrying point for the Dems going forward - the Blacks are getting a little ticked at not being able to play for the big prizes. Specifically, the Democratic Party keeps nominating moderate white men for its congressional seats because they are such strong candidates. They win, though, with the help of a lot of Black vote, and some Black leaders believe they are being taken for granted. That is always the condition, of course, but the wild card is that they figure that if Senator Obama is running for President that they could ride overwhelming Black turnout to general election wins, a formula about which the Party in general is much less optimistic. So, a few of the more vocal of the Black candidates are discussing skipping the primaries and running as independents in the general, a move which could, needless to say, very easily split the Democratic vote between them and the other candidate, allowing the Republicans to hold onto some seats they might otherwise lose. Stay tuned.
Vermando,
I think TomT's comments were tongue-in-cheek.
I like to think of Cazayoux not as a right wing Democrat, but rather as the possible ultimate Scrabble word.
he is simply not a viable candidate. very poor results in working class "traditional" white neighborhoods. dems in the know are saying
"uh-obama".
he is simply not a viable candidate. very poor results in working class "traditional" white neighborhoods. dems in the know are saying
"uh-obama".
Comments closed May 17, 2008.
| 
Heads in the Sand
I'm not really sure whether the Euroleague or Guam is less relevant. Either way, I'd need more decimal points on my calculator to calculate the relevancy. But the House pickup is certainly real and positive.
Posted by fostert | May 4, 2008 12:03 AM