If I'm working at the NSCC, I'm not liking these poll results out of North Carolina and Texas one bit. One assumes the GOP will pull both of these out in the end, but you've got to spend money defending your incumbents, and you really don't want to be spending money on what ought to be safe Republican seats where conservative legislators untainted by any incredibly shocking scandals are just running for re-election.
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Too Close for Comfort
13 May 2008 04:22 pm
Comments (14)
I wouldn't assume that the GOP would pull out the North Carolina race. Dole hasn't been much of a senator, and will be working against what should be an anti-Republican tidal wave. And contrary to what some would suggest, a Democrat winning a statewide election in North Carolina isn't that remarkable an event.
In 2008, being a Republican will effectively be an incredibly shocking scandal.
I wouldn't be so sure about NC: Liddy Dole has been an absentee Senator for most of her six-year term, and Kay Hagan's going to have a compelling argument in a year that trends Democratic that she'll do more for the state over the next six years.
Hagan's already rolled out the campaign message -- "Senator Where" -- and she's going to run to the right, in the knowledge that she can challenge Dole on issues of basic constituency service and, y'know, remember the state that elected her.
Dole is very vulnerable, and given her atrocious management of the NRSC last time round, there might find a degree of reluctance to throw money in her defense if the polls don't firm up over the summer. She didn't clear 50pc in any recent polling, and the race hasn't even begun yet. And unlike Bev Perdue in the gubernatorial primary, Hagan had fairly gentle treatment from her opponent -- there wasn't much of a TV campaign for the Senate primary -- so the voters are basically starting with a low-rated incumbent and an unbruised challenger.
Pretty OT, but the article pseudonymous linked says:
"Sen. Barack Obama entered to Bruce Springsteen's 'The Rising.' And like both anthems, the two presidential candidates tuned their speeches to be upbeat affairs...."
Isn't "The Rising" about a firefighter dying in the World Trade Center?
Speaking of Republicans who might lose safe seats, anyone else get the sense that Greg Davis (the Republican who's running in the open special primary tonight in MS-1) is Nathan Lane's doppelganger?
in context, sk271828 is almost certainly right, though we shouldn't rule out the concept of a National Senate + Congressional Committee, campaigning for the re-election of incumbents of all stripes.
Given the financial disparity in Texas, I doubt Sen. Ensign and the NRSC will need to worry about that one -- Cornyn has a truly staggering money edge over Noriega. The NRSC will need to expend just about no time, effort, and money in the defense of this seat, and unless the DSCC is willing to pony up tons of cash (which could probably go to better opportunities), Cornyn's weaknesses will go unexploited.
North Carolina is a different matter, though. Hagan's already demonstrated some strength by a solid primary win and she's been a strong fundraiser as well. There have been several other polls giving the same result as Rasmussen's. This one could become a real race, especially if Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue continues to prove competitive in the governor's race against Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. And if Obama makes a big play in North Carolina, in terms of on-the-ground turnout/registration operations targetted at youth and black voters, that could give Hagan a bit more of a boost.
Agreed with jbryan: there are better investments in the Senate lineup, especially with potential Obama coattails west of the Mississippi, for Noriega to get the investment he'd need for an upset. Meaning that barring the unexpected, Cornyn gets to stake his claim for Dumbest Current Senator going into the 2010s.
That doesn't mean it should be abandoned, but it's going to be a question of how much you throw into TX. Cornyn is bobbling around 50pc, but he's a camera-loving bullshit artist, as opposed to Dole, who is as much a Senator Who? as a Senator Where?
Isn't "The Rising" about a firefighter dying in the World Trade Center?
Matt W., it's about a lot of different stories, but yes. But it's a song about hope and coming out stronger out of a ruinous experience.
Apropos, my oddest, most chilling iPod moment was when my nearly-sentient electronic device followed "The Rising" with Slayer's "Raining Blood". Those songs will forever be linked for me.
Tell that to Talent, Allen or Chafee.
Why assume that the Republicans will pull it out in the end?
Because they have nine lives? Because of an ancient curse?
Look, if you were just opining in the dark, based only on recent electoral results, and without any polling, yes, you would be better off taking the Republican side of any even wager in statewide races in NC and TX. But we're not flying blind. We have polls, from an organization that tended to skew 2-3 points Republican in 2006 Senate races, showing Dem challengers beating or coming very close to incumbents with much better name recognition. If the present trend continues on autopilot and inertia, unless the Republicans come up with some game-changer between now and then, we will win these races on 11/4/08. Si, se puede.
And it's not easy to see what that game changer of theirs might be. Well, not easy if they confine themselves just to their usual slime distraction tactics, which don't seem to be working all that well lately. It looks more and more that they will only get a game changer if they reach for something extra special, like some Reichstag Fire, or some judicial coup like Bush v Gore. It promises to be an interesting campaign year.
Childers wins the MS-01 special election. There *are no* safe Republican seats in 2008.
I think (D) Noriega has a real chance of making the Senate here in TX. The key is that Cornyn is 100% brown-nose, and not much else, That means he stands or falls on Bush, and even here in TX, Bush is more unpopular than popular. It's a narrow margin, though; nobody's going to tell you it'll be cake for Noriega.
If money were everything, then we'd be governed by Governor Tony Sanchez, a rich and well-known (D) businessman, instead of Perry. Didn't work out that way, though.... I think Noriega's likely to make better use of what he has because he's fundamentally alot smarter. I think of money as being more of a threshold issue - above enough to cover media markets well, it becomes more about politics than money. And Noriega's gonna get enough to make that, because of that poll.
I agree with pseudonymous in nc, Dole will have a tough road to go and Hagen can win it. NC is a state that hasn't re-elected a Senator of either party since Jesse Helms had one seat and Sam Ervin had the other.
I'm a Democrat, but I am particularly disgusted at the form letters I get from Dole's office following up my letters on legislation. She makes no pretense of caring for her constituents views and lectures you on how the Republican side is the right side. At least Sen. Burr seems to have two form letters prepared to show a bit of understanding of the constituent's opposing view.
Comments closed May 27, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
I think you mean NRSC (National Republican Senatorial Committee)
Posted by sk271828 | May 13, 2008 4:40 PM