Washington Offseason

Word is that the Wizards are planning to resign Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison. That all simply raises the question resign them for how much money? Jamison is unquestionably a good player, and Agent Zero was a good player when he was healthy and presumably will be again -- they're guys that, all else being equal, it's good to have on your team, but all else is rarely equal.

Gilbert, in particular, keeps talking as if he expects a max deal and I think that'd be crazy. The maximum salary rule is a great opportunity that allows a select number of lucky teams to underpay elite players -- guys like Chris Paul and LeBron James are never going to be able to do what Shaq and Kevin Garnett did and get paid their real market value. You don't want to blow that kind of opportunity on lesser players unless you've got good reason to. This year, Jamison's earning $16 million and Arenas is earning $12 million and I seriously doubt there's another team in the league that's in a position to offer either of them more than that. And yet, sometimes you see a franchise do what Orlando did with Rashard Lewis last year and overbid the market for no real reason.

Comments

You don't want to blow that kind of opportunity on lesser players unless you've got good reason to.

Gawd knows your plan worked out for the Bulls. What would Gilbert max out at, anyway?

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | May 6, 2008 1:57 PM

Anyone see Rashard Lewis fruitlessly trying to hit multiple shots at the end of the game last night? He looked scared to death. Just horrible.

The guy has no testicular fortitude.

Terrible signing.

But please don't compare Gilbert to Rashard. Gilbert stomps on him.

And yes, Gilbert is a max player. This ain't the year to get that deal, but when healthy, he was a stud.

Max contracts aren't just for the LeBron's and the Chris Pauls - i.e. Top 5/10 players.

They have historically been for Top 20/25 players.

About one per team.

There are some who would say that, say, Paul Pierce is not worth a max deal, because he's not a Top 10 player. But he is unquestionably a Top 20 player, and thus he gets his deal.

Rashard Lewis? Top 35 maybe. Maybe. The Turkman on his own team is more of a stud than Lewis. In the end, Jameer Nelson is a more important player for Orlando.

Anyway, Gilbert when healthy was a Top 20 player. Gilbert and Pierce are about the same in value.

Posted by The Man Doubled | May 6, 2008 2:01 PM

All that money would be much better spent hiring some goon to break LeBron's knees.

Posted by Josh E. | May 6, 2008 2:01 PM

The Man,

Your analysis about max contracts is sound, except one thing, Arenas is not a top 20 player. He is much closer to Lewis than Pierce.

Posted by Eric k | May 6, 2008 2:07 PM

Your analysis about max contracts is sound, except one thing, Arenas is not a top 20 player. He is much closer to Lewis than Pierce.

The most valuable skill in the NBA is the ability to get your own shot. A healthy Gilbert can; indeed, he's one of the very best in the NBA at it. Lewis can't.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | May 6, 2008 2:11 PM

As a fan of another NBA team, I welcome the Wizards signing Arenas to a max deal and hobbling their roster for years to come.

Arenas is not a top 20 player. He's certainly a top 20 stat-producer, but I can think of way more than 20 players that I'd rather have on my team to help them actually win games.

The max-player-for-every-team mentality is also what gives us contracts like Zach Randolph's. Teams should show more fortitude and let stat-producers walk when they want to be paid like super stars.

Posted by matthewc | May 6, 2008 2:13 PM

Posted by The Man Doubled | May 6, 2008 2:01 PM

That's pretty spot on. Max deals allow for slightly lesser players to earn more by forcing the true elites to take less. This, incidentally, is one of the few instances of a professional sports union acting in a manner to benefit the players at large rather than getting a smaller amount huge deals (see high NFL draft picks compared to veterans).

The real question that needs to be asked is whether it is prudent for Washington to keep this team together. They can't get out of the first round, and yet they are going to commit to over $30 million per for several years for a couple guys? They should probably let one of these 2 guys go, as with Caron and either Arenas or Jamison they have enough scoring to make the 3rd superfluous. Getting guys that do other things would probably be wiser.

Posted by lfv | May 6, 2008 2:14 PM

I love it when you call me "The Man"...

Posted by The Man Doubled | May 6, 2008 2:14 PM

lfv does have a point

Me, I take Caron, then Arenas, then Jamison

Jamison is a solid player, but not a game changer

Caron plays tough D and is more versatile than Arenas.

The thing about Arenas though - and what helps him be a max player - is that Agent Zero is a star and puts butts in the seats.

Caron is a solid, Paul Pierce-lite player but still not a star the way Pierce or Arenas is.

And stars matter in the NBA.

Breaking up the Wiz not a bad idea at all, but as much as I'd like Jamison on my team, he's undersized and won't be that easy to trade for good return.

Posted by The Man Doubled | May 6, 2008 2:20 PM

Tim,

Off the top of my head, 25 guys I'd take over Arenas in no particular order:

LeBron, Kobe, Paul, Deron Williams, Roy, AI, Dirk, Duncan, Garnett, Pierce, Howard, T-Mac, Yao, Baron Davis, Parker, Ginobli, Gasol, Oden, Aldrige, Anthony, Durant, Jamison, Nash, Boozer, Ray Allen

And I stopped thinking of them when I got to 25, probably forgetting a few more.

Posted by Eric k | May 6, 2008 2:27 PM

Come on, we all knew Gilbert was going to go for a max or near-max deal after last season. Does he deserve it? Probably not, but he's played better than the $60 million deal he currently has. He's a legitimate superstar who drills 3s a lot more reliably than most "scorers" and (when healthy) gets to the rim and the free throw line at will--those skills are very desirable. He'd be overpaid with a $100 million deal, but garden-variety NBA overpaid, not Rashard Lewis / Raef LaFrentz overpaid.

I would hope that someone as level headed as Jamison realizes he's going to have to take a paycut from $16 million per to sign a new deal at his age.

I really like the way the Wizards played this year in terms of improving their defensive effort, stepping up the ball movement, and getting contributions from the bench. That said, you don't stay put in this league after 3 straight first-round exits. Something's gotta change to get to the next level. If it involves Arenas or Jamison leaving, I'll be sad to see them go, but that's the business. Butler should be the only untouchable piece at this point.

Posted by Jake H. | May 6, 2008 2:38 PM

When he was healthy last season, Arenas had a PER of 24.0, created a ton of shots while having a higher TS% than the league average (no Iverson he), and led the 3rd most efficient offense in the league.

Without Arenas, despite the (justifiably) much-praised years from Buter, Stevenson, and Mason, the Wizards' offense dropped to 12th.

If you think it's easy to put together that kind of offense, or that Washington will be able to lure an even better player away from their team, you might want to adjust your meds.

Posted by LGE | May 6, 2008 2:43 PM

LeBron, Kobe, Paul, Deron Williams, Roy, AI, Dirk, Duncan, Garnett, Pierce, Howard, T-Mac, Yao, Baron Davis, Parker, Ginobli, Gasol, Oden, Aldrige, Anthony, Durant, Jamison, Nash, Boozer, Ray Allen

I count seven I'd definitely take before Arenas, and maybe three or four more I might. None are available. Roy, AI, Pierce, B. Davis, Parker, Ginobli, Aldridge, Durant, Jamison, Nash, and R. Allen, I wouldn't.

People are unbelievably nutty about Durant. I'm going to enjoy watching him become first a poor man's George Gervin, and then a broken player as the weight of expectations crushes him.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | May 6, 2008 2:49 PM

To add to Erik's list, here's some other players I'd take over Arenas: Bosh, Calderon, Amare, Horford, Dwayne Wade, Billups, Prince, Danny Granger, David West, Al Jefferson, and Rudy Gay.

I'd also consider guys like Iguodala, Josh Smith, Monta Ellis, Kevin Martin and Andre Miller.

Some guys who are much better players but I'd have concerns over other issues are Ron Artest (would be an easy call without his past), Gerald Wallace (injury history), Shawn Marion (age and attitude). I would even take valuable bench guys like David Lee if the point is to win games.

Arenas can create his own shot, but he only connects on about 42% of them, and he's a huge liability on defense, which is half the game and can't be reduced to a formula or stat.

He's a fun character and fun to watch and will always have a good shot at a scoring title, but if I was building a team from scratch with the purpose of winning games and ultimately a championship, I would put him at about the 50th most valuable player in the NBA.

Posted by matthewc | May 6, 2008 2:52 PM

Danny Granger? Really?

...

Really?

Posted by LGE | May 6, 2008 2:57 PM

He's a fun character and fun to watch and will always have a good shot at a scoring title, but if I was building a team from scratch with the purpose of winning games and ultimately a championship, I would put him at about the 50th most valuable player in the NBA.

The market will tell, I suppose.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | May 6, 2008 3:04 PM

This is a team that consistently tops out in the second round at best and will only go downhill as Arenas gets more and more injured. Yes, when he's healthy, he's a pretty good offensive player, but he hasn't stayed very healthy over the last couple of seasons. He's a good guy, he's exciting to root for, and he works really hard, but locking the team to him is just not a good long-term bet, especially when he really is only a one-way player. Butler can do about 85 percent of what Arenas can offensively and about twice what he can defensively.

Posted by Antid Oto | May 6, 2008 3:08 PM

Matthewc comes up with a bunch of Doh's I forgot like Wade and Bosh I think I liek Arenas a little better than he does so wouldn't add everyone on his list, but we're probably up to 35 guys easy.

Tim, you way over rate Arenas, undersized 2 guards who can score are not hard to find.

Posted by Eric k | May 6, 2008 3:11 PM

Gil's PER was 24 in '06-'07; Garnett's was 24.12 (which put him fifth highest in the league). The season before, Gil's PER was 23.8. By comparison, still fifth, Garnett's was 26.8.

Undersized two guards might be easy to find, but productive ones aren't. B. Gordon's numbers, for comparison, here. Higest PER: 18.2, '06-07.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | May 6, 2008 3:27 PM

PER is far from definitive.

I'd say baseketball stats analysis is about at the level of baseball defensive stats analysis, it can tell us some interesting things but is far from conclusive the way baseball's offensive stats are.

Posted by Eric k | May 6, 2008 3:33 PM

I'd rather have Biedrins + Duhon + Ariza for the same money. I like Gilbert but it's silly to invest that kind of money in an older superstar who has never won anything. The Pistons/Spurs model of many very good players at reasonable rates is the way to go.

When things go bad due to injury or decline you can never move the contract of a max player who is no longer much of a player without courting ruin (see Knicks, New York).

Posted by joejoejoe | May 6, 2008 4:19 PM

Didn't Gilbert have knee surgery? How do we know he'll ever be the same? How can you be sure he'll ever recover his penetrating ability or quickness on the first step?

Posted by mq | May 6, 2008 4:26 PM

an older superstar

He's twenty six.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | May 6, 2008 4:34 PM

What would Earl "The Pearl" Monroe be worth in today's market?

Posted by Trevor | May 6, 2008 4:56 PM

I'm somewhat amazed at the hate Arenas is getting here. It seems to be colored by the injuries the past couple years, which was really only one that he didn't allow to heal correctly if I understand it right. Before that, he was absolutely one of the 20 best players in the league.

The lists of players people are putting up there are ridiculous. I'm sorry, but you would really have the following guys than Arenas?: AI (too old), Pierce (too old, not a #1 guy), T-Mac (age, injuries, not a playoff winner), Baron Davis (injuries), Gasol (great as a sidekick, not so much in Memphis), Oden (really?), Aldrige (really?), Anthony (overrated, character issues, not a winner), Durant (hasn't proven anything), Jamison (age), Nash (age), Ray Allen (age, even more of a liability on defense), Calderon (really?), Horford (will never be a superstar), Billups (overrated in the clutch, not a superstar), Prince (overrated on defense, not enough on offense), Danny Granger (LOL), Iguodala (nice choke job in the playoffs), Josh Smith (too soon to say), Monta Ellis, Kevin Martin and Andre Miller (age, not nearly as skilled, don't read too much into 2 months of hot play by Philly).

Posted by lfv | May 6, 2008 4:57 PM

SomeCallMeTim - Twenty-six? He might be worth it if he's healthy. For some reason I thought Gilbert was more like 30.

Posted by joejoejoe | May 6, 2008 5:48 PM

ifv,

You have to take position into account. PF and C are harder to find so the 10th or so best PF is worth more than 10th or so best SG.

Rememeber the original comment that started this was the claim that Arenas was one of the top 20 players in the league, that meant all positions.

Posted by Eric k | May 6, 2008 5:57 PM

Forgot,

You are criticizing a lot of thos eplayers as never having won anything. Remind me when exactly a team built around Arenas won a playoff series.

Posted by Eric k | May 6, 2008 6:00 PM

Let's take the way the Wizzes played without Gilbert last season. Now,

1) Add Gilbert ...

2) Or add any other player you could get with a max contract

Could 2 possibly be less difference-making than 1 has already proven to be?

Posted by Alan in SF | May 6, 2008 8:11 PM

Could 2 possibly be less difference-making than 1 has already proven to be?

I dunno. Who do you think you can get with a max contract? Grant Hill?

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | May 6, 2008 8:34 PM

Gil has to go. He's not a winner, he's a stat-maker. I like the guy and I'll probably cheer for whatever team he ends up on - I just want him to leave my team. Unfortunately, the Wizards management doesn't want to win so he'll probably be signed to a max contract, thus killing any chances of building a winning program for at least a couple of years. Sigh.

Posted by eriks | May 6, 2008 9:42 PM

Arenas should not be signed at any price. He is a cancer on the team. He can't play defense and he undercuts the rebounding, passing, and energy of all the other players.

Obviously, the Wiz need to spend money on a big man. Thomas has to go. Haywood is a back up center, not a starter. Butler is an all star. AJ is in decline and can be paid $8-10m and that's it.

The Wiz won't do the right thing. They never do. That's why after 30 years they have nothing to show for the effort.

Posted by rod | May 6, 2008 9:56 PM

Arenas should not be signed at any price. He is a cancer on the team. He can't play defense and he undercuts the rebounding, passing, and energy of all the other players.

Obviously, the Wiz need to spend money on a big man. Thomas has to go. Haywood is a back up center, not a starter. Butler is an all star. AJ is in decline and can be paid $8-10m and that's it.

The Wiz won't do the right thing. They never do. That's why after 30 years they have nothing to show for the effort.

Posted by rod | May 6, 2008 9:56 PM

Arenas should not be signed at any price. He is a cancer on the team. He can't play defense and he undercuts the rebounding, passing, and energy of all the other players.

Obviously, the Wiz need to spend money on a big man. Thomas has to go. Haywood is a back up center, not a starter. Butler is an all star. AJ is in decline and can be paid $8-10m and that's it.

The Wiz won't do the right thing. They never do. That's why after 30 years they have nothing to show for the effort.

Posted by rod | May 6, 2008 9:57 PM

I think "cancer" is much too strong. That's usually reserved for players who start fights with everyone else, and Arenas has been nothing but nice and friendly to his teammates (from all reports) and the fans. Just because he's not the best player for them to spend their money on right now (and I agree with that, see above) doesn't mean he isn't a very likable player.

Posted by Antid Oto | May 6, 2008 10:49 PM

Fans of Matt Yglesias and the Wizards-

I point you to www.ibreakforbuckets.blogspot.com

Resigning Arenas makes me sad. Mike Wise threw out Carlos Boozer. How will they afford him with the money they'll blow on Arenas.

Also, I just released a new EP. Shameless self-promotion.

www.cdbaby.com/lipstik2

Go Obama. Go Zards. Get a big man. Trade Arenas. Build around Butler and Jamison.

Posted by Sam | May 7, 2008 6:58 AM

I think you ought to use a hyphen in "re-sign."

Posted by Grant | May 8, 2008 9:22 AM