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Who's Afraid of STV?

07 May 2008 01:12 pm

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The other day, I suggested that the single-transferrable vote method they use to elect the Cambridge City Council in Massachusetts might help other cities out with the problematic lack of competition in local elections. Reihan Salam told me that STV "used to be in the model code for cities, and was used (in similar form) in New York city, Cincinnati, and other big cities. It was abandoned due to fear of Communism and the threat (gasp!) of minority mayors." Well, now that we don't have to worry about Communism anymore, it seems like more cities should go back to this.

Note that adopting STV needn't mean that other cities would need to emulate Cambridge (and many other smaller cities) in abandoning strong mayors in favor of a council/manager system where mayor is a mostly symbolic post. The two issues are different and, in general, I think most American cities should have stronger mayors because there's generally more accountability at that level.

I also actually think that STV could ameliorate some of our gerrymandering issues. Most states could get by with 1-3 multiple-member constituencies which would simply reduce the significance of the precise contours of the district boundaries. People often don't seem to realize this, but the constitution doesn't actually mandate that we elect members of congress in the way that we do. Single member constituencies elected with first past the post voting happens to be the method every state uses, but like the proliferation of bicameral state legislatures this is just blind adherence to misguided tradition and not an actual rule.

Photo by Flickr user Allan Patrick used under a Creative Commons license

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Comments (30)

Congress used to have multiple member districts. I believe the way this used to be done was banned by the Supreme Court in the 60s, but doing STV would probably pass the test.

There's some pretty good social history & social science on the origins of the standard U.S. local political systems. I.e., from Domhoff:

The Creation of an Urban Policy-Planning Network

The urban policy-planning network began with a meeting in 1894 of local reformers from 21 cities in 13 states. This National Conference for Good City Government brought together about 150 delegates and invited guests, many of whom were leading businessmen, lawyers, journalists, and academics from their respective locales.

The conference led to the formation of a permanent National Municipal League three months later. This organization carried the general ideology and formulated the specific policies for the local growth coalitions for the next five decades, as well as encouraging other organizations--for research, for professionalization, for advocacy--that soon developed (Stewart, 1950). Three years after its formation, the National Municipal League, through a special committee made up businessmen, lawyers, and university professors, began work on a municipal program which would put into practice what its leaders saw as the essential principles that must underlie successful local government. The committee report eventually became a model city charter for possible adoption around the country.

The reforms were put forth as part of the ideology of "good government," which meant "efficient," "businesslike" government by experts and technicians, as opposed to the "corrupt," "machine-dominated," and "political" government alleged to exist in a growing number of cities. The new movement claimed to make government more democratic and less boss-dominated, although the actual effect of the reforms was to increase the centralization of decision making, remove more governmental functions from electoral control, and decrease the percentage of workers and socialists elected to city councils.

http://sociology.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/local.html

I am also a big fan of STV, but you are a little off on its applicability to federal elections. While the Constitution does not say anything about districts and states in the past have had multimember districts, federal law now requires single member districts. This is largely a vestige of the Civil Rights Era, as many multimember districts had been designed to disfranchise minorities. Adding in STV may solve the problem, but there are still pretty strong arguments in favor of having single member districts where the local community is somehow distinct (whether for racial, cultural, or historical reasons). So, we will probably not see the federal requirement go away anytime soon.

That said, we could easily implement an instant runoff system, where voters rank their choices for the single representative. If no one has a majority, then the candidate with the lowest number of votes is knocked out, with their votes going to whomever their voters selected as number two (and so on). This solves most of the "throwing away your vote" problem with third parties. You could vote for the Green Party candidate, knowing that it would not be a vote for the Republican (or for the Libertarian without it being a vote for the Democrat).

I think the biggest problem with "gimmicks" like STV is that it's very confusing to most ordinary voters, who have regular lives to lead.

It would just shift the political balance-of-power even further towards the organized, the active, and the political-enthusiast, and away from ordinary people. Perhaps coincidentally, it tends to be most popular among exactly those groups.

I used to live in Chicago, which has a strong mayor system.

The current Mayor Daley (son of the first one) presides over a blatantly corrupt city government, controls the Cook County government, and he and his cronies are doing their best to corrupt Will and Du Page counties. (This isn't terribly hard work, either.)

He's right now doing his level best to destroy Grant Park for the benefit of well connected developers, under the guise of building a better Children's Museum. Critics of his plan have been accused of being racists. It looks like he'll be able to push it through despite public opposition, too. And if he doesn't, he can always do what he did to Meigs Field.

He's jacking up taxes while sitting on a pile of money from TIFs

Patrick Fitzgerald has spent a lot of time sending Daley cronies to jail in recent years, too.

Despite all this, Daley was reelected by a large margin, and he is called the best mayor in the country" by Republicans and Democrats. President Bush, for example. called Daley that before they went and had a meal in a local restaurant that is nicknamed "clout cafe."

That is pretty much the opposite of accountability.

This is only one example, but I think strong executive systems at any level are a bad idea.

I don't think that there is necessarily anyhing gimmicky about STV. I mean how hard is it to rank your candidates, instead of just checking a box.

I am also a big fan of STV, but you are a little off on its applicability to federal elections. While the Constitution does not say anything about districts and states in the past have had multimember districts, federal law now requires single member districts. This is largely a vestige of the Civil Rights Era, as many multimember districts had been designed to disfranchise minorities. Adding in STV may solve the problem, but there are still pretty strong arguments in favor of having single member districts where the local community is somehow distinct (whether for racial, cultural, or historical reasons). So, we will probably not see the federal requirement go away anytime soon.

That said, we could easily implement an instant runoff system, where voters rank their choices for the single representative. If no one has a majority, then the candidate with the lowest number of votes is knocked out, with their votes going to whomever their voters selected as number two (and so on). This solves most of the "throwing away your vote" problem with third parties. You could vote for the Green Party candidate, knowing that it would not be a vote for the Republican (or for the Libertarian without it being a vote for the Democrat).

Corruption definitely seems like its easier to achieve in strong executive systems. Also, the cult of leadership societies tend to develop also makes this a problem. So the accountability loophole seems like it gets broken a lot.

it's very confusing to most ordinary voters, who have regular lives to lead.

What do you like best, chocolate, vanilla, or strawberry? What do you like second-best?

Congratulations, you just cast a STV ballot!

I voted in Cambridge, and it seemed like what would happen every year is that the perennial council members would run against Cambridge crazies (like "hi, I live with my mom" guy and "save the geese by the charles" guy and "let's bring real communism to cambridge" guy). Obviously, the incumbents always won.

Overall, the council was pretty good. But it was still a pretty locked incumbency... maybe because no other serious candidates actually wanted the job.

Thanks for bringing this up. It drives me crazy when people talk about bringing in independent commissions to do redistricting so that they can end gerrymandering and make seats competitive. It won't, can't work.

Given a polarized electorate, a single-member legislative district can be either competitive or representative, but not both; that is, if there's a landslide pretty much everyone's happy with their rep, while if the election is close nearly half the people are not represented.

STV solves the problem of gerrymandering completely by making it irrelevant, as you're almost certain to end up with a legislature that is proportioned in the same way as the votes. I guess the big problem is that both major parties oppose this kind of reform because you might end up with the horror of a Green or Libertarian in the House.

Still, it would make a lot more sense for Arnold to propose dividing California into 11 five-member districts than the redistricting he keeps proposing.

And what is the point of bicameral state legislatures anyway?

Bonus points for a fire truck outside Mary Chung's. Mary makes great spicy food. :)

I like STV as well for city council races. It allows a determined faction to get representation.

However, if people *actually* knew how it worked, they would be against the idea: the outcome can be affected by the order in which the ballots are counted.

Say you have 10 city council slots and 10,000 votes. So the threshold to get a seat on the city council is 1,000 votes. You take the #1 vote-getting candidate, take his first 1000 #1 votes and put them aside. Now take the rest and dole out the #2 votes from the "extra" ballots, and so on, until the process is done. Because the ballots are randomized, this shouldn't affect the outcome, but once voters understand what's going on, they might find the process hard to buy into.

Charles is correct that federal law currently bans multi-member districts and would have to be changed in order to implement STV for federal offices. STV would not disenfranchise minorities in the way that the old multi-member districts did (back then, as is currently done in many city council and school board elections, you got as many votes as seats and the top n vote-getters got the seats). If you're wondering how STV works: Wikipedia page.

I doubt the federal law is particularly relevant at this point anyway, since I doubt we'll see STV proposed for federal offices unless some state(s) implements STV for its state legislature first.

I never understand people who say IRV or STV is too complicated for voters. Ireland uses STV to elect its legislature, and Australia, New Zealand, and Scotland use it for local elections. Are Americans dumber than the Irish? I think people can manage to rank candidates in order of preference.

I don't think that there is necessarily anyhing gimmicky about STV. I mean how hard is it to rank your candidates, instead of just checking a box.

Look, for local or even Congressional races, your average ordinary voter barely even knows the name of *one* candidate (including the incumbent). As an example of this, in 1998 over 50% of CA registered voters couldn't provide the name of the state's governor just a couple of weeks after he'd been elected in a gigantic landslide with almost $100M of advertising spent during the campaign. That's why corrupt, dishonest paid "slate-mailing" are so important in local elections in CA and many other states.

If most people barely know the name of one candidate, knowing--and ranking---three of them becomes a gigantic obstacle to participation. Hence the massive shift of political power towards the organized, the well-funded, and the activist. Basically, the second and later names would be almost totally dominated by groups with organization and money, and these would shift some outcomes.

Money and organization are already very powerful, and if the goal is just to make them even more powerful, there are less confusing ways to achieve this.

Two nitpicking points.

STV is independent of multi-member districts. In Australia we use single member STV for the lower house and multi-member STV for the upper house. If you make it single member, you still have gerrymander problems. (We have am independent body do boundaries to avoid this.)

Tyro is wrong about how votes are transferred, at least under ordinary STV. All the votes are transferred, but they are each worth a fraction of a full vote, so the numbers work. No randomization is needed.

Two nitpicking points.

STV is independent of multi-member districts. In Australia we use single member STV for the lower house and multi-member STV for the upper house. If you make it single member, you still have gerrymander problems. (We have am independent body do boundaries to avoid this.)

Tyro is wrong about how votes are transferred, at least under ordinary STV. All the votes are transferred, but they are each worth a fraction of a full vote, so the numbers work. No randomization is needed.

Hey, it's Mary's! Best Chinese food in the area! So spicy, they need a fire truck to handle it!

All joking aside, when I was first confronted with the Cambridge ballot, I was just a wee bit intimidated trying to navigate the large numbers of circles (I think there were 15 candidates for city council that year?) to list preferences, all the way down to #15. I think I gave up after about the first 6 or so that I actually knew.

Nice system in theory, but I'm still seeing echos of butterfly ballots in my mind thinking about it.

Tyro, the problem you raise with order of counting does not exist in most actual implementations of STV. In Ireland, for example, they use the "Gregory method," which allows for fractional allocation of ballots. So all ballots for a candidate who exceeds the threshold have their 2nd choice ballots counted in proportion to the amount by which their 1st choice candidate exceeded the threshold.

Yes, counting is complicated with STV. That's why we have computers. (But in Ireland they actually count by hand anyway!)

the entire canadian province of british columbia may move to stv in 2009 (there's another ballot measure on it coming up next election).

http://www.bc-stv.ca/

In British Columbia, Canada a "Citizens' Assembly" has recommended that STV replace our current "first past the post" system of electing legislators. There will be a second referendum on electoral reform in May 2009. Check out the "Yes for BC-STV" campaign website.

http://stvforbc.com/

The use of the citizens assembly to help shape electoral reform has, itself, been an important reform. Politicians are in a conflict of interest on this issue because they have direct interest in how they get elected, whereas the members of the Citizens Assembly were picked at random from the population. The manner in which the Citizens Assembly operated is in some ways similar to the democracy of ancient Greece.

That still leaves the problem that when a Congresscritter represents 600,000 people and serves a two-year term, any notion of constituency service goes out of the window, to be replaced by lobbying interests.

When the main objection to enlarging the House is 'the chamber's too small', you've got bigger problems than just FPTP vs STV.

When I saw the headline, I thought, "Hey, I'm afraid of STDs." But then I realized that in this instance, Matt hadn't made a typo.

It's possible to "gerrymander" multi-member districts, especially if they don't all have the same number of members. Japan's system had (it's been reformed a few times, so I'm not sure exactly how it stands now) big cities set up as districts with a lot of members, with smaller districts with fewer members in the cities and countryside. Which sounds good and neutral, but one (intended, not side) effect of this was to, well, keep the Communists out. Their base was the urban areas, where with a 5-member district, a result of 55% would equate to 3 seats. Whereas the LDP would probably get the other 2, and could also pick up any number of members by a 40% plurality in single-member districts in the surrounding countryside, ending up with an overwhelming advantage in seats with only a minor, or even nonexistent edge in raw vote counts.

STV would also be nice for other local bodies, such as school boards. I ran for my local school board a few years back, on the short end of a 55-45 voter split. The majority-take-all nature of our FPTP elections means that the 55% majority always take all five seats, while STV would produce a 3-2 split that would do a fine job of representing the diversity of the community.

Similarly, our city council tends to tip back and forth between pro-growth interests and preservationists, rather than representing those interests at all proportionately.

As Mill wrote,

Had a plan like Mr. Hare's [that is, STV] by good fortune suggested itself to the enlightened and patriotic founders of the American Republic, the Federal and State Assemblies would have contained many of these distinguished men, and democracy would have been spared its greatest reproach and one of its most formidable evils. Against this evil the system of personal representation, proposed by Mr. Hare, is almost a specific.

I would certainly not use the Cambridge council as an advertisement for any political system. Residents of Cambridge might like them but they have a poisonous reputation in every neighboring town.

Cambridge has a habit of pursuing its own interests over all others. All on street parking in the entire city is reserved exclusively for Cambridge residents whether there is a shortage of spaces or not. And non-residents are pretty likely to be ticketed by the corrupt parking enforcement office when parked entirely legally.

The various methods of counting are interesting, but none seem to address the fact that most people running for elected office are scum.
Given these circumstances STV boils down to the next sentence. Rank your choices from first to third: Crap, poop, turd.

this sounds like it would be good for Detroit, except it's Detroit(not gunna doit)

STV, IRV, whatever ranking/preference voting system is a great idea for a lot of reasons.

To address matt foley's 'they are all crap' complaint... an simple mod is to have a 'none of the rest' candidate.

The two biggest improvements these systems have over plurality voting are:

1) Third parties and independent candidates have a fair chance. A moderate running against two polar extremes could easily win by being the second choice of the overwhelming majority of voters... which is a big feature, not a bug.

2) Voter strategy is more obvious, rational, and positive. Simply rank the candidates in order you like them. None of the 'lesser of two evils', strategic voting, spoilers, or any of that complicating BS.

It is easy to create a ranking system that can handle ranking however many candidates you wish. There can be an implicit or explicit 'none' tacked onto that list... and if 'none' wins, it can be handled in various ways, a popular one being to have a new election scheduled excluding the current slate of candidates.

"Look, for local or even Congressional races, your average ordinary voter barely even knows the name of *one* candidate (including the incumbent). As an example of this, in 1998 over 50% of CA registered voters couldn't provide the name of the state's governor just a couple of weeks after he'd been elected in a gigantic landslide with almost $100M of advertising spent during the campaign. That's why corrupt, dishonest paid "slate-mailing" are so important in local elections in CA and many other states."

That's not an argument against using STV. That's an argument against having any elections at all.


Comments closed May 21, 2008.

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