Change I Could Be Persuaded to Believe In

Kevin Drum kind of answered his own question here, but certainly my reaction to Colin Powell coming out and supporting Barack Obama and "the possibility of him having any influence in an Obama administration" would have everything to do with what Powell actually said. There's a kind of notional shadow Powell who we've all heard about -- this guy thought invading Iraq was a terrible idea, thinks Dick Cheney is a dangerous madnam, and is furious at George W. Bush for running the government in such a terrible way.

Call that guy "Larry Wilkerson". "Larry Wilkerson" is a great guy -- someone who'll not only give the Bush administration and the neocons around McCain hell, but someone who can speak with authority as a former insider. But in public, Powell has always been, well, Colin Powell -- a mild-mannered dude who ultimately put his reputation for moderation and good sense to work providing a patina of cover to the insane agenda of the Bush administration's neoconservative faction. If Powell decides to becomes Larry Wilkerson that could be a huge asset to Obama. But if Powell stays Powell, it's not just that an endorsement would likely feel a bit icky, it's hard to imagine the endorsement even happening. Powell wouldn't endorse Obama. Some of Powell's friends would tell reporters off the record that Powell prefers Obama, while Powell himself stays studiously neutral. And since Powell is Powell, I think that's what Powell will do.

Comments

The shortest measurable unit of time would be the instant from when Colin Powell endorsed Obama to when the idiots over at the Corner and Clownhall said it was only because they were both black.

Posted by LFC | June 27, 2008 2:05 PM

Why would anyone be happy with Powell's support? This guy threw his reputation and clout away by opting to lie to the world instead of sacking up and resigning when presented with a pantload of false information he "had" to present to the U.N. He has no credibility.

Posted by Adam | June 27, 2008 2:07 PM

Imagine Powell as Secretary of Defense and Rice at State? (she just talked Bush into doing North Korea). David Brooks would have an orgasm in his pants.

But seriously, this is why I've been for Obama since the beginning. Obama can say some things that have been taboo about foreign policy and Powell still backs him. Powell gives him stature on foreign policy (well not for anti-war pacifist isolationists, but still).

It's not guaranteed, but with Obama, good things are possible.

I think Powell also sees a winner.

Posted by Peter K. | June 27, 2008 2:09 PM

A patina of cover?

Posted by Eric | June 27, 2008 2:10 PM

Forget the endorsement, let's talk VP - Powell/Obama 2008. I don't love Powell, but a ticket with him would shut up all the so-called moderates and the Wash. Post editorial page about Obama's supposed lack of defense strength and foreign policy depth.

Plus, it would scare whitey. At this point, the only people who would actually be scared are ones that really, really deserve it.

Posted by Ben | June 27, 2008 2:22 PM

MY nails it.

Powell gets all this credit for being a force for decency and moderation and integrity, but when has he ever stood up in public and spoken out? Not once. He never will. The only words I ever want to hear come out of Colin Powell's mouth are "I am sorry I lied to the UN and to the world about Iraq." The Colin Powell who would ever say such a thing exists only in the imaginations of mainstream pundits.

Posted by Rob Mac | June 27, 2008 2:24 PM

Well one thing you have to say for Powell, he's not really the typical Republican hack that we see all over the place today. Like these asshats who STILL haven't gotten the memo that the story about China drilling for oil off of Cuba is bulls**t.

Or the federal marriage amendment being proposed to preserve the sanctity of marriage, with two of sponsors being David (Prostitutes in D.C., Prostitutes in NOLA) Vitter and Larry (Wide Stance) Craig.

The GOP really is the biggest group of partisan f***-ups in my lifetime.

Posted by LFC | June 27, 2008 2:35 PM

Yglesias, have you seen this? http://www.usnews.com/blogs/washington-whispers/2008/6/4/obama-powell-now-thats-a-dream-ticket.html

I like the idea of Murtha in that office, except he did support the draft at one point IIRC.

Posted by socctty | June 27, 2008 2:51 PM

Colin Powell has willingly played stooge his entire career. From the investigation of My Lai to the UN speech touting ice cream trucks as WMDs. Unless you're thinking of hatching a cover-up, why on earth would you want his endorsement? T

Posted by Jeffrey Davis | June 27, 2008 4:01 PM

Kevin Drum quotes Novak.

The prototypal Obamacon may be Larry Hunter, recognized inside the Beltway as an ardent supply-sider....Explaining his support for the uncompromisingly liberal Obama, Hunter blogged on June 6: "The Republican Party is a dead rotting carcass with a few decrepit old leaders stumbling around like zombies in a horror version of 'Weekend With Bernie,' handcuffed to a corpse."

Hunter sure has a way with words.

What's interesting to me is how Novak describes Obama as "ncompromisingly liberal" and you still read deadender fucks comment that Obama is a "centrist".

Posted by Peter K. | June 27, 2008 4:11 PM

soccty, another potential hurdle for Murtha is that he may have accused Marines of wrongdoing before knowing all the facts:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/01/AR2006080101345.html

Posted by S.P. Gass | June 27, 2008 5:32 PM

Colin Powell is a sad, tragic figure. At one point in his life, more of his countrymen trusted him more than anyone else. Now, he is a joke.

He has one more chance to repudiate GWB. If he remains neutral, he has lost his legacy and soul forever.

Posted by Econobuzz | June 27, 2008 6:26 PM

I agree. Even now, if Powell would stand up and say, "I lied, I knew it was bullshit, I covered up for My Lai and the bullshit about Iraq, I was a house nigger, I was a punk, and I'm sorry", we could cut him some slack.

Come over from the Dark Side of the Force and much, if not all, might be forgiven. Darth Vader did it.

As it is, fergeddaboudit. Fuck Powell.

The problem is that I think Obama is too much like Powell. He panders to AIPAC over Iran exactly like Powell pandered to Bush over Iraq.

Exactly.

And that's bad news.

Posted by Richard Steven Hack | June 27, 2008 7:30 PM

Whoo, I'm so shocked. Not.

I thought everyone was pretty much aware that Powell's sympathies were with the Democratic party all along, and that the only reason he originally identified as a "Republican" was that he was planning on running for President, and didn't feel like challenging an incumbent President for his own party's nomination. Then when his wife pressured him into dropping the bid, he was stuck with the label.

Isn't this all widely understood? Powell isn't backing Obama because he's black, he would have backed anybody who got the Democratic nomination.

Posted by Brett Bellmore | June 28, 2008 7:10 AM

Colin Powell?

Face the facts: Colin Powell is a war criminal.

I don't care how much he was used by Bushco he was used willingly and knowingly. If he had turned himself into a whistleblower then MAYBE. But he didn't. At best, he was a somewhat reluctant war criminal, but a war criminal nonetheless.

Colin Powell did more to ruin our reputation internationally than almost anyone other than Bush. Powell stood before the entire world and lied in their faces in support of an illegal war of aggression based on a hoax that he KNEW to be a hoax.

To even consider allowing this war criminal to have anything to do with your administration is shameful. Among many other things, it means that any notion of holding the Republicans accountable has been flushed down the toilet.

I'm still on the fence right now as to whether I will even vote for Obama because of his FISA cowardice. If he acknowledges Powell in any way, I abso-fuckin-lutely guarantee I would never vote for him. I don't like war criminals and I don't like people who like war criminals.

Posted by The Fool | June 28, 2008 7:54 AM

The idea that a risk averse Powell will openly declare his support for Obama BEFORE it is obvious that he will the next President is just that, an idea thrown out by some Powell contact and fed into Matt's blog.

Powell is for Powell; nothing else has matters. He stays silent and gets on with his life.

Posted by alan | June 28, 2008 8:33 AM