Have No Fear

The McCain campaign is evidently convinced that it can win a debate about Iraq policy, but the basis for their confidence remains elusive. Here's a Democracy Corps analysis of 45 Republican-held but maybe winnable congressional districts:

More importantly, when forced to choose between Obama’s proposal for a responsible troop withdrawal and a shift of resources to the U.S. and McCain’s commitment to stay the course but have most troops out of Iraq by 2013, Democrats win the argument by double-digit margins. Engaging in the Iraq debate allows Democrats to reach out to independents and winnable voters well beyond their electoral support.

Given that this is a somewhat right-of-center set of districts, that's very very bad news for McCain. Under the circumstances, insofar as McCain's heavy recent focus on
Iraq reflects any kind of political strategy, it seems to me to be a kind of confidence game. Republicans are hoping Democrats will fear the issue and shift the conversation elsewhere. Then they'll point to the shifting and say, "see! they're afraid! they know they're wrong!" And I do think that kind of dynamic might change some people's minds. Whether or not it's a good idea to put him on a national ticket, I do think a lot of Democrats running for office could stand to learn from Joe Biden's confidence and recognize that there's nothing to be afraid of.

Comments

Of course when Blackwater drops a section of the Golden Gate Bridge into the bay everything changes. Moving the threat of domestic terrorism back to the front burner will be the death nell for Obama's campaign. Can't have weenie, treasonous appeasers with their hands on the levers of power, can we?

Posted by steve duncan | June 11, 2008 8:57 AM

I'd suggest that it's not so much that McCain's campaign must be convinced that they'll win a national security debate, but that they're convinced they'll lose a domestic policy debate, and badly.

National security isn't a bad issue for Obama, but domestic policy, in general, is insanely good for Obama.

I don't think this challenges your claim that Democrats need to be convinced they're right and act like they're right on national security, but I think it should be noted that Obama is correct to attempt to campaign on domestic issues as well. He's not dodging McCain - McCain's dodging him, because McCain knows he'd lose that debate badly.

Posted by DivGuy | June 11, 2008 9:05 AM

The Iraq War is fast receeding as the issue that voters care most about. Deaths are down, and it is becoming clearer that Al Qaeda suffered a strategic disaster by declaring it their Central Front of Jihad, and in killing so many Iraqis, AQ lost much goodwill in the Muslim world.

It is now the economy.

Gas, inflation, food prices, health insurance, SS and Medicare going bankrupt and a growing sense in America that neither Party is competent at solving problems like the energy crisis, health care costs, the trade deficit, fiscal meltdown, illegal immigration and the effect of illegal immigration on US workers wages.

Outside the economy, it is China's growing threat as a nation that has definite ill-will towards America, and Iran. And cultural and tax issues..

Posted by chris ford | June 11, 2008 9:06 AM

I'm not energetic enough to actually click on the link and read it, but if the question stipulates that Obama's plan is "responsible" right up front, that might account for something. Of course, it is more responsible...

Posted by the puzzled ibex | June 11, 2008 9:13 AM

Being a blowhard is not the same as being confident and doesn't come off the same. If Biden is so confident, then why did he get railroaded into supporting the worst strategic disaster in American history, huh Matt? Why did he feel the need to attack the people who got it right and opposed the war, huh Matt?

Biden is a tool and anyone who likes Biden is, well -- to put it in language Matthew understands -- a second-order tool.

Posted by The Fool | June 11, 2008 9:39 AM

If McCain's group don't believe they can win a debate about Iraq, they shouldn't be in the race. They've already admitted they can at best hope to fight to a draw on the economy, and that's wildly optimistic--Mr. Deficit Hawk has embraced the Bush tax cuts, for heaven's sake.

But I agree with the latter part--Dems seem to have this weird desire to get foreign policy cred by grabbing Republicans--McCain rumors in 2004, Hagel and Powell urges now. Show some confidence! And even if Biden isn't on the ticket--and it's not clear he wants veep over his senate seat, but might enjoy sec of state--get him out there to beat a message "we're democrats and we know more about foreign policy than the clowns who've run it for the past 8 years."

Posted by Deborah | June 11, 2008 9:42 AM

Let me explain why you have to be strategically dumber than a bag of rocks to support Biden as VP -- over and above the fact that he's a blowhard and a pussy.

The most important issue is Iraq. The Iraq war is extremely unpopular among voters. Obama has a great contrast with McCain on Iraq. Obama has the potential to blast McCain's one supposed strength by blasting him on Iraq. However, if Obama's running mate supported the Iraq invasion, that opportunity gets flushed down the toilet. And for what? To gain the opportunity to run with a blowhard?

You'd have to be idiotic in the extreme to do that. This is part of how Kerry blew the 2004 election. Once Kerry said he'd vote for Iraq again, he lost any chance to hold Bush accountable for the worst strategic disaster in American history. What do you say we not blow another presidential election, ok?

Posted by The Fool | June 11, 2008 10:10 AM

death nell

Wilde would approve.

Posted by Jeffrey Davis | June 11, 2008 10:30 AM

Time to find out if McCain wants the 58 bases and untold 'staffing' Bush is angling for in Iraq.

It would seem that if so, most of those troops won't be leaving by 2013.

Posted by Dr. Puck | June 11, 2008 10:34 AM

Time to find out if McCain wants the 58 bases and untold 'staffing' Bush is angling for in Iraq.

It would seem that if so, most of those troops won't be leaving by 2013.

Posted by Dr. Puck | June 11, 2008 10:36 AM

"I still believe that Saddam possessed weapons of mass destruction and that the war in Iraq was justified."

Joe Biden, July 8, 2003.

Only a complete fucking idiot still thought Hussein had WMD in July of 2003.

Posted by The Fool | June 11, 2008 10:48 AM

I can say one thing and be absolutely sure about it. "The Fool" is aptly named.

As far as Obama being so great because he opposed the Iraq resolution, he wasn't in the US Congress at that time and subject to the same pressures of that crazy period. I opposed the war too, but don't feel that qualifies me to run for president. And as for Obama, we have a "Hick" saying here in the sticks: "Even a blind hog finds an acorn now and then."

He didn't show such wonderful judgement about Tony Rezco and Jeremiah Wright, so maybe the Iraq thing was just an "acorn".

Posted by Cacatua | June 11, 2008 10:52 AM

Joe Biden, June 29, 2005:

SAWYER: Final and very quick question if I can. He [Bush] made five references to September 11th in 30 minutes last night. A lot of people have been debating this morning. Is that justified to evoke September 11th about the war in Iraq at this point?

BIDEN: Well, I won't say whether it's justified or not. I guess whatever the president thinks is justified is justified.

One word: PUSSY, PUSSY, PUSSY

Posted by The Fool | June 11, 2008 10:53 AM

The problem with Biden as an elected official is that while he may be capable of identifying problems an all their depth and nuance and expound on all this with serotonin-fed confidence, he has enormous blind spots. Here's a link to his speech on the Iraq War resolution:

http://authforce.liberatedtext.org/021010/cr10oc02-70_02.html

I remember listening to this on the radio, and thinking there May Day Parade worth of red flags against this war being raised in this speech. And yet Biden in his egotism was swayed to support the resolution just because the president asked him, rather than go to war unilaterally. He couches this support with a Friedman-esque warning that the war would entail hard work and sacrifice and behaving in a way any competitant judge of human nature knew wasn't going to come from George W. Bush. And like Friedman, Biden can now knock the war because it wasn't conducted in the precise way he outlined it.

In short, Biden is a pundit politician, in love with his own voice and always able to find a way to escape responsibility for his pontificating. No wonder he gets so much love from the pundit class.

Posted by jlw | June 11, 2008 10:53 AM

The problem with Biden as an elected official is that while he may be capable of identifying problems an all their depth and nuance and expound on all this with serotonin-fed confidence, he has enormous blind spots. Here's a link to his speech on the Iraq War resolution:

http://authforce.liberatedtext.org/021010/cr10oc02-70_02.html

I remember listening to this on the radio, and thinking there May Day Parade worth of red flags against this war being raised in this speech. And yet Biden in his egotism was swayed to support the resolution just because the president asked him, rather than go to war unilaterally. He couches this support with a Friedman-esque warning that the war would entail hard work and sacrifice and behaving in a way any competitant judge of human nature knew wasn't going to come from George W. Bush. And like Friedman, Biden can now knock the war because it wasn't conducted in the precise way he outlined it.

In short, Biden is a pundit politician, in love with his own voice and always able to find a way to escape responsibility for his pontificating. No wonder he gets so much love from the pundit class.

Posted by jlw | June 11, 2008 10:57 AM

I can say at least two things and be absolutely sure about them:

1) Joe Biden is a pussy.

2) Cacatua is a disgruntled Hillary supporter. Haha Cacatua, your girl triangulated on war, got a million human beings killed, and then had her triangulation backfire politically. Haha.

Posted by The Fool | June 11, 2008 11:34 AM

Not even close, Fool. Hillary got where she did on gender, just as Obama got there because of race, because the Democratic Party wanted to make history more than to nominate a suitable candidate.

I was a volunteer for Biden in Iowa and my Biden stickers are will remain on the back of the Yaris as an "Up Yours" to the Obamanable Showman, whom I will never vote for, unless he happens to put Joe on the ticket, which Joe has said he doesn't want.

I saw and heard Joe Biden a number of times here in Iowa, and he was always a gentleman, and a truly knowledgeable statesman - the perfect candidate for our country at this particular time. Nominate the Obamas of the world when things are going smoothly and anyone can step in. We are just trying to rid ourselves of one president who had a terrific political machine to get him elected in spite of the fact that he had didn't know what he was doing and screwed everything up. We don't need another intern!

Posted by Cacatua | June 11, 2008 3:26 PM

Not even close, Fool. Hillary got where she did on gender, just as Obama got there because of race, because the Democratic Party wanted to make history more than to nominate a suitable candidate.

I was a volunteer for Biden in Iowa and my Biden stickers are will remain on the back of the Yaris as an "Up Yours" to the Obamanable Showman, whom I will never vote for, unless he happens to put Joe on the ticket, which Joe has said he doesn't want.

I saw and heard Joe Biden a number of times here in Iowa, and he was always a gentleman, and a truly knowledgeable statesman - the perfect candidate for our country at this particular time. Nominate the Obamas of the world when things are going smoothly and anyone can step in. We are just trying to rid ourselves of one president who had a terrific political machine to get him elected in spite of the fact that he didn't know what he was doing and screwed everything up. We don't need another intern!

Posted by Cacatua | June 11, 2008 3:30 PM

Not even close, Fool. Hillary got where she did on gender, just as Obama got there because of race, because the Democratic Party wanted to make history more than to nominate a suitable candidate.

I was a volunteer for Biden in Iowa and my Biden stickers are will remain on the back of the Yaris as an "Up Yours" to the Obamanable Showman, whom I will never vote for, unless he happens to put Joe on the ticket, which Joe has said he doesn't want.

I saw and heard Joe Biden a number of times here in Iowa, and he was always a gentleman, and a truly knowledgeable statesman - the perfect candidate for our country at this particular time. Nominate the Obamas of the world when things are going smoothly and anyone can step in. We are just trying to rid ourselves of one president who had a terrific political machine to get him elected in spite of the fact that he didn't know what he was doing and screwed everything up. We don't need another intern!

Posted by Cacatua | June 11, 2008 3:34 PM

@Kakatua:

Well, then allow me to revise my remarks. As one of the 5 or 10 people who supported Biden, you are a disgruntled Biden, not Clinton, supporter. Haha, your boy triangulated on the war, got a million people killed, but it didn't backfire on him politically because Biden never had a snowball's chance in hell of being president anyway. Haha.

caca: are you related to Biden or on his payroll? Because otherwise I'm at a loss to explain your support for that big pussy of a blowhard. Perhaps you're the president of the Ted Knight fan club?

Posted by The Fool | June 11, 2008 4:11 PM

Not even close, Fool. Hillary got where she did on gender, just as Obama got there because of race, because the Democratic Party wanted to make history more than to nominate a suitable candidate.

I was a volunteer for Biden in Iowa and my Biden stickers are will remain on the back of the Yaris as an "Up Yours" to the Obamanable Showman, whom I will never vote for, unless he happens to put Joe on the ticket, which Joe has said he doesn't want.

I saw and heard Joe Biden a number of times here in Iowa, and he was always a gentleman, and a truly knowledgeable statesman - the perfect candidate for our country at this particular time. Nominate the Obamas of the world when things are going smoothly and anyone can step in. We are just trying to rid ourselves of one president who had a terrific political machine to get him elected in spite of the fact that he didn't know what he was doing and screwed everything up. We don't need another intern!

Posted by Cacatua | June 11, 2008 5:18 PM

Touche Cacatua. The 4th time is the charm.

Are you a bot? The product of an Artificial Unintelligence experiment gone wrong?

Posted by The Fool | June 11, 2008 5:28 PM

This site sure has a hinky posting system - you get an error message every time you try it and then it posts anyway?

Fool: Right back atcha! I hope the Obamanable Showman gets elected so that I can watch him crash and burn. It won't be with our votes. We'll stay home.

Why am I talking to a Fool anyway? If it looks like a duck, and walks like a duck, and QUACKS like a duck, well...............

Posted by cacatua | June 11, 2008 5:29 PM

Brilliant, Cacatua! You support Biden but you would rather have 4-8 more years of Bush/McCain despite the fact that Obama is far, far closer to Biden than McCain. That's smart thinking!

I'm not a big Obama fan but I'm also not politically retarded. You've proven yourself by far the bigger fool, my friend.

Posted by The Fool | June 11, 2008 5:36 PM

Just out of curiosity, Cacatua: does your front yard sport one of those cute little lantern-bearing jockey figures? Next to the pink flamingo perhaps?

Posted by The Fool | June 11, 2008 5:43 PM

Ahhhhhh-No. Sorry to disappoint you, Fool, but my front yard is a camel pasture, and my "Pink Flamingo" is a cockatoo (thus cacatua). I've always marched to the beat of a different drummer. You must be thinking of your own front yard - you know, the one with a "HOPE" sign, next to the flamingo. That's what we'll need a lot of if Obama is elected. He's right on the money there.

Posted by cacatua | June 11, 2008 5:55 PM