Lieberman as VP

Noam Scheiber says "I talked to eight or so GOP operatives for my Pawlenty piece and brought up Lieberman's name almost every time. About half thought it was a lunatic idea, the other half thought it was a decent idea but still highly unlikely."

Probably everyone's right. As with the previously discussed notion of a McCain-Huckabee ticket, a McCain-Lieberman ticket would be courting disaster -- you would confirm a lot of the conservative movement's fears about McCain, you'd be doubling-down on McCain's support for an unpopular war, Lieberman's not a charismatic guy or effective campaigner, etc.

But I continue to think that if McCain makes his top priority avoiding disaster, then he's just dooming himself to defeat. There's something plausible to be said along the lines of "most people think Bush is a bad president and I agree with them, but Democrats have responded to GOP unpopularity by positioning themselves substantially to the left of where they were in the late 1990s and nothing about Bush's record actually justifies that kind of move." Joe Lieberman is pretty well situated to try and make that argument. But to make it persuasively, McCain would really need to move to the center on non-war topics and make some decisive breaks with the Bush administration. Thus far, he seems to be doing the reverse -- sapping his dissent from Bush on climate and executive power of any content -- which I do think is the safe strategy, but timidity plus extremely unfavorable objective conditions are a recipe for losing.

Comments

I don't get the Huckabee hate. Why is he so anathema to conservatives? Is it just because he's not sufficiently hateful in his demeanor?

Posted by Ron | June 19, 2008 8:58 AM

I think his proposal for offshore drilling was exactly that--bold move that could pay off or blow up. Unfortunately Bush immediately decided to back him up on it.

Posted by Deborah | June 19, 2008 9:19 AM

Here's the problem with McCain picking Pawlenty: In the unlikely event that McCain wins, Carol Molnau will be governor of Minnesota. She is the stupidest fucking woman on the face of the earth.

Posted by Aaron | June 19, 2008 9:33 AM

McCain's playing to the right because the GOP base still isn't into him, at all. something like 15% of the GOP base is enthusiastic about him, compared to 50% of the Dems about Obama. so he has to run to the right and to the center (i think he alternates weekly), and the result is that he doesn't have a coherent position on anything but "IRaq 4E!"

Posted by cleek | June 19, 2008 9:50 AM

Aaron, you've just given me nightmares. Of course, the mere fact you've brought up would guarantee Pawlenty wouldn't be able to carry Minnesota for McCain, because even the MN GOP doesn't want her in charge.

McSame/Loserman has a nice ring to it. I suspect it would test the limits of conservatives' tolerance for cognitive dissonance to support Lieberman only one presidency after they savaged him as a filthy liberal scumbag. All those clips of Fox News talking heads criticizing him in 2000 must still be floating around somewhere. And they can't explain it by saying his opinions have changed, because that would make him an unmavericky flip-flopper.

Posted by Midwest Product | June 19, 2008 10:03 AM

"Why is he [Huckabee] so anathema to conservatives? Is it just because he's not sufficiently hateful in his demeanor?"

It's because he actually believes what Jesus said about helping the poor people.

Posted by Dantheman | June 19, 2008 10:07 AM

But -- to crib from the NYT a couple of months ago -- it could make Lieberman the first person to lose the Vice-Presidency on both major party tickets.

Posted by DonBoy | June 19, 2008 10:09 AM

Huckabee was not a fiscal conservative and talked populist at times.

Pawlenty is amazingly popular in Minnesota, considering, but a national anti-Pawlenty clip would be easy to put together for people who don't know who he is.

The year before one of the most important bridges in the state collapsed and killed ~10 people, he vetoed a bridge-and-highway-repair bill. Twice.

Posted by John Emerson | June 19, 2008 10:13 AM

You can't put The Dad from ALF on the ticket, because if McCain goes down, it's all abortions all the time. There's plenny of other reasons, but this seems most important to the Right Wingers.

Posted by ed | June 19, 2008 10:25 AM

I'd love to see McCain take the plunge and go for broke, because he'll lose anyway and in the process give the Democrats a huge boost all the way down the ticket.

Posted by David W | June 19, 2008 10:34 AM

wait, pawlenty's popular? you'd think that after he let that bridge collapse, he'd be less popular than Illinois' very own Governor Rod.

Evangelicals do like Huckabee. But he scares the people holding the pursestrings.

The Club For Growth, Grover Norquist, the US Chamber of Commerce and all the other right wing moneybags organizations would go apepoo if Huck was the running mate.

McBush's running mate options are pretty thin all around.

Posted by jerry 101 | June 19, 2008 11:19 AM

"But I continue to think that if McCain makes his top priority avoiding disaster, then he's just dooming himself to defeat."

Concern troll!

Posted by Kyle | June 19, 2008 11:53 AM

The big problem is that it's very unclear what McCain actually thinks about a lot of issues-- except (so far) for Iraq. This, I think, should be considered sorta surprising, considering that he's a Senator & all that. Don't Senators deal with 'issues'?

Posted by MattF | June 19, 2008 12:07 PM

wait, pawlenty's popular? you'd think that after he let that bridge collapse, he'd be less popular than Illinois' very own Governor Rod.

In this case, "amazingly popular" means slightly in excess of 50% approval rating, which is pretty amazing in light of the overall popularity of Republicans in other statewide races in Minnesota. He does seem to have an unusual gift for being stubbornly oppositional without excessively pissing people off. I could never figure out exactly why Pawlenty squeaked out a win while Kennedy got trounced, even though they seem to be essentially the same person. I suppose it didn't hurt that T-Paw ran against a bona fide jerk.

Posted by Chilly | June 19, 2008 12:26 PM

Lieberman for veep? It's crazy and not likely to work. But it sure looks like Joe's working for a position in the McCain administration as veep or cabinet secretary. I believe McCain is stubborn enough to do it. I have yet to see any action that disproves the theory that Lieberman will get the veep nomination (except for the ritual "I'm not interested" line). In McCain world, picking Lieberman shows he is a maverick reaching out to the middle.

Mostly I'm rooting for it because it virtually guarantees 40 states for the Dems.

Posted by danimal | June 19, 2008 1:10 PM

it sure looks like Joe's working for a position in the McCain administration as veep or cabinet secretary.

He knows which way the wind is blowing: even if McCain wins, the Senate map points to the downsizing of positions for Self-Righteous Pain In The Ass, and if he walks from the Senate, Jodi Rell will appoint a Republican to replace him.

Posted by pseudonymous in nc | June 19, 2008 2:16 PM

Actually, much as I can't stand the guy, Lieberman's a pro-choice former Democrat with liberal positions on a lot of issues. Since McCain has already decided he's going to double down on the war, Lieberman constitutes exactly the sort of gamble that might help him.

Posted by Dilan Esper | June 19, 2008 2:22 PM

What exactly would Joe Lieberman bring to John McCain's column? Lieberman is known for his fervent support of an unpopular war, and for being socially conservative. He's not a dynamic speaker. He's not a young, vibrant, new hope for the Republican party. He's reviled by hardcore Democrats and he's loved by hardcore Republicans. The rest of the country probably doesn't think about the man at all.

Posted by Jinchi | June 19, 2008 3:28 PM

The only way I vote for McCain is if Huckabee is on the ticket, otherwise I will be voting Bob Barr. As I am sure many Conservatives will. I would of voted for Obama but after reading his voting record with partial birth abortion there is no way. www.theobamaplan.com

Posted by charles | June 19, 2008 4:37 PM

The only way I vote for McCain is if Huckabee is on the ticket, otherwise I will be voting Bob Barr. www.barrroot.com As I am sure many Conservatives will. I would of voted for Obama but after reading his voting record with partial birth abortion there is no way. www.theobamaplan.com

Posted by charles | June 19, 2008 4:37 PM

The only way I vote for McCain is if Huckabee is on the ticket, otherwise I will be voting Bob Barr. www.barrroot.com As I am sure many Conservatives will. I would of voted for Obama but after reading his voting record with partial birth abortion there is no way. www.theobamaplan.com

Posted by charles | June 19, 2008 4:38 PM

The only way I vote for McCain is if Huckabee is on the ticket, otherwise I will be voting Bob Barr. www.barrroot.com As I am sure many Conservatives will. I would of voted for Obama but after reading his voting record with partial birth abortion there is no way. www.theobamaplan.com

Posted by charles | June 19, 2008 4:42 PM

I think that McCain timidity to break with Bush is that his advisors and his staffers are Republicans with strong ties to the party mainstream.
Thus, any weakness to his right gets reacted to more strongly than weakness towards the center. In areas where there is a weak to no preference by McCain personally, his advisors will offer advice based on their own perspectives and biases, which tends towards the Republican main-stream, which is proving itself unable to detach itself from Bush.
Furthermore, given that McCain's signature issue this election and strongest personal preference by far has also been Buhs's signature issue and strongest personal preference, you have a recipie for disaster.

Posted by William Smith | June 19, 2008 5:02 PM

If we're considering risky but potentially brilliant strategies McCain could use to win, I have a suggestion. He should pick a pro-choice woman as VP. Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins, perhaps. Yes, it would piss off his base, but it might help him with moderates, independents, and especially women. If he does it early enough (like say, next week), there might be enough movement away from Obama among women in the polls that he gets spooked and picks Hillary as his VP. Then McCain can fire up his base in opposition to the Scary Black Man/Castrating Bitch ticket. Even if Obama isn't goaded into picking Clinton, McCain, the RNC, and the 527s could probably still whip up enough antiObama fear and loathing among the base to hold them together, and still get Maverick Points for picking a moderate pro-choicer.

Posted by Greg | June 19, 2008 10:03 PM

Alaska Gov Sarah Palin is a much better and more likely pick as McCain's Veep. A commenter on another post says it much better than I can in making the case for Palin:

"They say McCain reads the blogs, so here goes --

Senator McCain- Don't let the campaign kibbitzers muddle things up.

First and foremost, Sarah Palin shares your values. She killed the bridge to nowhere. Need we say more?

As for the politics, Sarah Palin transcends geography. Her constituency, like yours, goes beyond state lines.

She will get your ticket access to voters all over the country based on who she is and what she stands for. Because she's young, a woman, a mother with young kids, she will grab media attention more than any other potential candidate.

Gov. Palin also has a son in the active duty military. You have very wisely taken your son's service in Iraq off the table as a campaign talking point. That is and should be respected. But others can talk about it and reflect on what it means.

A McCain-Palin administration would be the first in memory which has family members in uniform during wartime from both the President and Vice President. That would be a powerful statement as to the importance of national service, especially in uniform.

Most importantly, any Vice President should be ready to step up and serve in the event she is needed. Frankly, who is really ever ready? Gov. Palin is as ready as anybody, she is a quick learner, and in her public career has exhibited the courage and decisiveness needed for a great leader.

Godspeed to you in your campaign and in making this important decision."

Posted by 4bob | June 22, 2008 4:20 PM

Alaska Gov Sarah Palin is a much better and more likely pick as McCain's Veep. A commenter on another post says it much better than I can in making the case for Palin:

"They say McCain reads the blogs, so here goes --

Senator McCain- Don't let the campaign kibbitzers muddle things up.

First and foremost, Sarah Palin shares your values. She killed the bridge to nowhere. Need we say more?

As for the politics, Sarah Palin transcends geography. Her constituency, like yours, goes beyond state lines.

She will get your ticket access to voters all over the country based on who she is and what she stands for. Because she's young, a woman, a mother with young kids, she will grab media attention more than any other potential candidate.

Gov. Palin also has a son in the active duty military. You have very wisely taken your son's service in Iraq off the table as a campaign talking point. That is and should be respected. But others can talk about it and reflect on what it means.

A McCain-Palin administration would be the first in memory which has family members in uniform during wartime from both the President and Vice President. That would be a powerful statement as to the importance of national service, especially in uniform.

Most importantly, any Vice President should be ready to step up and serve in the event she is needed. Frankly, who is really ever ready? Gov. Palin is as ready as anybody, she is a quick learner, and in her public career has exhibited the courage and decisiveness needed for a great leader.

Godspeed to you in your campaign and in making this important decision."

Posted by 4bob | June 22, 2008 4:21 PM

Agreed with 4bob, if we're really talking about McCain's options (and not concern trolling, as some have alleged), Sarah Palin is a good double-down, exciting choice. She's younger and attractive, she's got a few good lines on relatively short resume. I don't think veep picks do much to the overall picture. But tapping Palin, along with some other shrewd moves, could be the way to launch a "McCain gets his groove back" narrative in the mainstream press.

I offer this good advice to McCain camp being fully secure in my knowledge that

a). McCain does not read political blogs, as by his own admission, he can barely do a google without his wife's help.
b). If by some miracle John McCain did read blogs, he sure the hell wouldn't be reading this one, and he sure the hell wouldn't be browsing about deep into a Sunday afternoon comments thread.

Posted by Philly | June 22, 2008 4:59 PM