New York State of Endorsement Deals

Everyone seems to agree that the New Jersey Nets shipping Richard Jefferson to Milwaukee for Bobby Simmons and Yi Jianlian was fundamentally about clearing cap space to try to lure LeBron James to the future Brooklyn Nets. One could imagine this happening, but I have to say I've always been skeptical of the idea that James would have substantially more marketing power in the Big Apple.

I could see that for, maybe, Michael Redd who tends to languish in obscurity right now because the Bucks aren't a great team and they're located in Milwaukee whereas the best player on a mediocre Knicks squad would be a star. But given James' current level of fame, if I were his manager I would tell him that team success is going to be a much more important factor than team location. James is already well-known and you could make the case that he's the best player in the league right now. If he wins championships, more people will make that case. If he plays with inadequate teammates and exits the playoffs in the first round people will start talking about how he's overrated and the world will move on to its next basketball savior.

To me, that would have to be the reason to leave Cleveland -- to move to a team with a better shot of winning. Ultimately, it's hard to sustain success as an NBA star without being on teams that go deep in the playoffs.

Comments

I could be wrong on this, but I'm pretty sure his Nike contract guarantees him A LOT more money if he were to play in LA or NY. Also, whatever team he plays on is going to be making it deep into the playoffs. Honestly, he couldn't have much worse of a supporting cast than he does right now. And they just lost to the champs in seven games. Jersey would become Cleveland if he were to go there. Therefore, I'd venture to guess that he's leaving.

Posted by Stacy | June 27, 2008 3:27 PM

Stacy is correct -- that certainly is a popular rumor about Nike's contract containing a clause that grants LBJ substantially more $$ if he plays in a major market like LA/Chi/NYC. I don't actually know that it's ever been verified, however.

Posted by Reader | June 27, 2008 3:36 PM

Honestly, he couldn't have much worse of a supporting cast than he does right now.

You mean, unlike the other supporting casts he's had since arriving in Cleveland?

The question for Lebron is this: Stay in Cleveland, where he's adored and has a front office and coach that know their ####. Or go to New Jersey, where he'll make more money, have Kiki "I Drafted Nikolos Tskhivilli And Signed Kenyon Martin" Vandeweghe as GM, and get roasted alive if he fails to win a title?

Not quite as easy as one would think.

Posted by Doug H. (Fausto no more) | June 27, 2008 3:38 PM

His supporting cast is bad at scoring but good at everything else. No team got closer to putting the World Champion Celtics out of the playoffs than Cleveland and it was because of their defense, rebounding, and general efficiency.

I'm interested to know whether LeBron's interested in the historic cachet of winning the championship while playing (continuously) for the team that drafted you.

Posted by MrTimbo | June 27, 2008 3:40 PM

I think your conclusion is wrong. Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, Carmelo Anthony, Tracy McGrady (actually never been beyond first round) and Yao Ming are undoubtedly NBA stars and they have never gone deep in the playoffs. Prior to this season, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce had limited playoff success and both are NBA stars and were considered NBA stars before winning this season. Steve Nash has 2 MVP awards and has never been to the finals.

Relatedly, leaving Cleveland for New York makes sense on the theory that better players are likely to join LeBron in New York. If you were a free agent and all things being equal, would you pick New York or Cleveland?

Posted by James | June 27, 2008 3:40 PM

Yeah, Doug, he's had worse teams in Cleveland, but you get my point. And yeah, its probably not as easy a decision as it seems to outsiders, but if you were a betting man, what would you say he's gonna do?

Posted by Stacy | June 27, 2008 3:43 PM

If you were a free agent and all things being equal, would you pick New York or Cleveland?

All things being equal. The free agents didn't flock to Boston until after Garnett and Allen arrived, and they aren't flocking to New York and New Jersey right now.

Posted by Doug H. (Fausto no more) | June 27, 2008 3:43 PM

I agree with Yglesias.

could be wrong on this, but I'm pretty sure his Nike contract guarantees him A LOT more money if he were to play in LA or NY.

I've heard that, but I couldn't swear where. I'd also note that (a) given his rising status, the terms of his contract are almost certainly subject to a fair bit of revision if the sales justify it, and (b) if there is such a clause, I don't know that it's not a hedge from his first years when Nike couldn't be sure that LBJ would live up to the potential of LBJ.

Again, I don't think Jordan, by playing in a metro area less than half the size of NYC, left a lot of money that Nike could have otherwise have had on the table. Cleveland's metro area is much smaller still--a sixth the size of NYC, I think--but the case seems similar. I'd be surprised if Jordan sales were driven by Chicago,and I'd be surprised if LBJ sales were driven by Cleveland.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | June 27, 2008 3:46 PM

And yeah, its probably not as easy a decision as it seems to outsiders, but if you were a betting man, what would you say he's gonna do?

If I was a betting man, I'd say Lebron follows the hardware. If we're winning in Cleveland, he stays. If he thinks he has a better chance to collect rings elsewhere, he goes.

Posted by Doug H. (Fausto no more) | June 27, 2008 3:47 PM

The free agents didn't flock to Boston until after Garnett and Allen arrived, and they aren't flocking to New York and New Jersey right now.

Wait, which ones did flock to Boston after KG and Allen arrived? Cassell? Retired PJ Brown? And prior to beating the Lakers to a pulp, wasn't the Boston bench reputed to be the reason they would lose?

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | June 27, 2008 3:51 PM

James, obviously, LeBron James is star in a sense that Arenas, Baron, Carmelo and T-Mac aren't. Those guys don't have a shot at being the best ever. LeBron does.

I don't doubt that he'd be an even bigger star in New York, espeically with the Knicks. I can't even imagine the extent to which he would own the town, and as you might have noticed, the media tends to be a wee bit NYC-centric. Just look at all the attention, both positive and negative, that Patrick Ewing got. Judging from the way he was covered, you would have thought he was a legitimate rival to Hakeem Olajuwon, when actually, Ewing was never close. I'd have taken David Robinson over Ewing in a heartbeat, and then Young Shaq came into the league and he was better than Ewing, too.

I really hope LeBron goes to whatever team will give him a decent supporting cast, whether its Cleveland or someplace else. If I were him, I'd be starting to doubt the Cavs. I would strongly disagree with Doug that their front office knows what they're doing. They've put themselves in a situation where there's nobody good enough to be LeBron's 2nd banana, nobody really good enough to be a 3rd banana, no attractive pieces that they could trade for those types, and no really promising young players who would fill any of those roles. DeLonte West is their best young guy, and he's got "average pg, at best" written all over him.

It's hard to imagine any team with LeBron not winning at least 45-50 games and being a serious threat in any playoff series. Which is what Cleveland is now.

Posted by too many steves | June 27, 2008 3:56 PM

Everyone is failing to mention that Bron's BFF Shawn Carter is the co-owner of the (soon to be) Brooklyn Nets. So that's another reason we could see Bron in a Nets uni in '10. I'm just happy Yi's out of Wisconsin and in the NY/NJ metro area. Might have to go buy a Nets jersey now.

Posted by Keith | June 27, 2008 3:57 PM

"If we're winning in Cleveland, he stays."

Ahhh..."we're." The plot thickens. I hope you guys can keep him. Like Pierce just proved, its always cool when a guy stays with the team that drafted him and then brings them a championship.

Posted by Stacy | June 27, 2008 3:58 PM

I've always been skeptical of the idea that James would have substantially more marketing power in the Big Apple.

Wait -- I've always understood that actual New Yorkers like Matt don't call it "the Big Apple", and kind of disdain the term. Am I mistaken?

I've recently moved to New Jersey so it's important that I get the straight dope on this!

Posted by Ryan | June 27, 2008 4:01 PM

Jordan is sui generis. So let's not compare LeBron to him. Think, instead, of Shaq and Kobe, Duncan and Garnett. I would argue that Duncan has left money on the table by playing in San Antonio rather than a big market.

I've argued that LeBron can also significantly improve his marketability by playing with a big Chinese star. After all, look at what playing with Yao has done for T-Mac. Will Yi do that for Vince now? Who knows, but it may provide a window into whether he could do it for LeBron should LeBron come to Brooklyn.

But, ultimately, even if what Matthew says is true, I'd bet LeBron's thinking in 2010 will be: "I can make whatever team I'm on a contender." And at this point I wouldn't put Cleveland's surrounding pieces as signficantly different than the Nets surrounding pieces (especially given that the Nets have a very young team now, which is likely to improve with 2 years of experience.

Posted by Al | June 27, 2008 4:03 PM

One notable exception to your "Ya gotta play for a winner to sustain superstar status" theory has to be Allen Iverson. Always respected, feared, a force to be dealt with and a long time marketing giant.

Posted by steve duncan | June 27, 2008 4:05 PM

Yeah, but doesn't the Lebron-Jay-Z friendship seem to be one built up by the media as well? I mean, I'm sure they're tight, but are they really BFF's? Who knows. They're both extremely rich and extremely famous, but we don't really know if that would play into LeBron's decision.

Posted by Stacy | June 27, 2008 4:07 PM

BTW - one other point to make. LeBron isn't the only big-name free agent in 2010. The list also includes, potentially, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Rip Hamilton, Kobe Bryant, Amare Stoudemire, Manu Ginobili, Carlos Boozer, Yao Ming, Dirk Nowitzki, and others.

Now, maybe Matthew is correct that LeBron cannot improve his marketability by coming to Brooklyn. What about Chris Paul? Deron Williams? Chris Bosh? Amare? D-Wade? I'd argue that some, or all, of them could.

So 2010 isn't all about LeBron, even if Jay-Z seems to be putting a priority on him.

Posted by Al | June 27, 2008 4:10 PM

AI seems to be the player that actually wed the NBA and Hip-Hop. That seems to be why his marketing power was/is so immense. Or maybe its the other way around. Actually, yeah, he was probably able to bring Hip-Hop and the NBA together because he was so marketable. Chicken and egg type scenario, perhaps...

Posted by Stacy | June 27, 2008 4:11 PM

Al, I'd go farther. Based on their rosters now, the Nets with LeBron in 2010 would be far superior to the Cavs with LeBron in 2010.

But if you really think LeBron is closer to the Kobe/Shaq/KG/Duncan talent level than the Jordan level, our assumptions are drastically different.

LeBron will never be the cultural and marketing force that MJ was, because MJ came along at exactly the right time. And I'm not saying LeBron will be a better player than MJ. But he certainly could be.

Put it another way: Kobe, Shaq, Duncan and KG are the best players of the post-Jordan era. They're all in the top 20 of all time, maybe top 25. I have no doubt in my mind that LeBron will be a top-10 guy. There's a pantheon there of Jordan, Bird, Magic, Wilt and Russell, with Oscar Robertson and Kareem just a quarter-notch below. That's what I expect from LeBron. He's doing it already, anyway.

Posted by too many steves | June 27, 2008 4:12 PM

At the end of the day, if it's working in CLE, LBJ is going to stay there. Just because of the unspoken "not broken, don't fix it" that is always there in any decision-making process. Right now, it sort of looks like it's working in Cleveland. You wouldn't want to rule them out of a return to the Finals, would you?

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | June 27, 2008 4:13 PM

Al, are you really the guy who wedded hip-hop to the NBA? I wouldn't have guessed a Bush supporter would do something like that.

Posted by too many steves | June 27, 2008 4:21 PM

Too many,
Well done...

Posted by Stacy | June 27, 2008 4:26 PM

Once again, LeBron's Nike contract EXPIRES in 2010, so any clauses in it with regards to NY or LA are irrelevant. And to people making comparisons to guys like T-Mac becoming bigger stars playing with Yao, are you freaking serious? LBJ was a bigger star before he got drafted than McGrady ever was or ever will be. He literally cannot be a bigger star, unless he wins a few championships.

It's also silly to look at Cleveland's roster and assume they won't be able to sign LBJ because it won't be good in a couple years. They have a load of expiring contracts over the next couple years. And, looking at that free agent class of 2010, that sets up nicely for the Cavs when you consider they could sign one or two of those guys and then resign LBJ to go over the cap. No other team will have that ability.

Posted by lfv | June 27, 2008 4:27 PM

At the end of the day, if it's working in CLE, LBJ is going to stay there.

I really don't think we can say this with any degree of confidence.

It was "working out" for Shaq in Orlando in '96, when they went to the Finals, no? Yet he still left for LA.

Posted by Al | June 27, 2008 4:37 PM

lfv,
No one ever claimed that McGrady became a bigger star than LeBron. They were saying that McGrady becamse a bigger star after he got teamed up with Yao.

You know what's funny, whenever I think of what type of 'second-banana' Cleveland could pair up with LeBron to make them unstoppable, I always think of Carlos Boozer. A good All-Star, but by no means a superstar. Its pretty unfortunate what happened when they were unable to sign him.

Posted by Stacy | June 27, 2008 4:42 PM

lfv makes the only relevant point in his first sentence. But look: it's possible for LeBron to make more in a major market while Matt is also correct. The only thing required is for Nike to be a little stupid with its money (not something they've done a lot of, but not unheard of either).

Posted by jhupp | June 27, 2008 4:50 PM

Stacy,

I think you misunderstood what I wrote, which was a little unclear. Guys like a T-Mac or Arenas can become bigger stars due to outside forces. It is hard to imagine a guy of James' stature and stardom becoming even more famous. Any increase in star power from playing in NY would be very marginal. I don't mean to claim that someone thinks McGrady et al. are equal or bigger than James.

Posted by lfv | June 27, 2008 4:53 PM

And at this point I wouldn't put Cleveland's surrounding pieces as signficantly different than the Nets surrounding pieces (especially given that the Nets have a very young team now, which is likely to improve with 2 years of experience.

I think after last night's grand larceny, the Nets probably have the second-best roster situation in the entire league (after Portland). From NetsDaily via TrueHoop:

The roster now has three 20-year-olds (Ryan Anderson, Brook Lopez and Yi Jianlian), two 21-year-olds (Chris Douglas Roberts and Sean Williams), a 22-year-old (Marcus Williams), a 23-year-old (Josh Boone), a 24-year-old (Nenad Krstic), a 25-year-old (Devin Harris) and a 26-year-old (DeSagana Diop)( 11 players 26 or younger. Unless you count Darrell Armstrong and Keith Van Horn, you can only find one Net who's over 30.

Assuming they drop Diop at some point, this roster +LBJ would look PHENOMENAL in 2010. Keep in mind NJ's likely to be a lottery team for at least another year.

There is No. Way. LBJ stays in Ohio. If you were the biggest star on the planet, and you had spent your whole life living within a 33-mile radius, would YOU stay in Ohio?

Better get that ring now, Cavs fans. Mortgage the farm if you have to.

Posted by scythia | June 27, 2008 4:57 PM

It was "working out" for Shaq in Orlando in '96, when they went to the Finals, no?

Mmm. My recollection is that he thought Orlando low-balled him initially, and also thought that management had picked Penny as the lead dog of the team (with appropriate market focus) over him. Neither is a problem for LBJ.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | June 27, 2008 4:58 PM

Put another way: Post-Jordan, Chicago cleared gathered young talent and cleared cap-space for free agents, and that didn't work out that well. I wouldn't bet the house on NJ succeeding where Chicago didn't.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | June 27, 2008 5:02 PM

I don't think it really matters very much where James plays. His position in the marketing firmament is well established.
I think the type of team he plays on is the key. Cleveland will never cut it for him, and neither will either NY area team (no future winners there).
How about Portland? That's a loaded young team with a huge future (Oden, Roy, Aldridge et al) and a super-rich owner ready to spread the wealth.
Oh, and btw- Nike headquarters is a quick light rail ride from the Rose garden.

Posted by mikey | June 27, 2008 5:11 PM

And prior to beating the Lakers to a pulp, wasn't the Boston bench reputed to be the reason they would lose?

Further proof that you know nothing about the NBA (or are intentionally being obtuse), SCMT. Boston and LA were considered to have the best benches in the NBA. After the first 3 series' the Lakers bench played much better than they did in the regular season and Boston's didn't. The thing is in the last 2 gamest vs. Detroit and the Lakers series, Boston played like the regular season Celtics and not the Celtics of the first 18 playoff games.

If LBJ goes to a team, I could imagine him going to LA. Better history, more glamorous, big market and better management. If you're talking about marketability, why go to a nothing team vs. the league's premiere team?

BTW, has playing for the Knicks done anything for Zach Randolph or Starbury's marketing? No. It's not the location, it's the game.

Oh and San Antonio hasn't limited TD's marketability, it's his demeanor.

Posted by Mo | June 27, 2008 5:16 PM

Shaq seems to be a counter-example. He was highly marketable before he went to LA. He went to LA to sell bad rap records and star in bad movies. Which he did before moving from Orlando to LA. Big markets help you to become overrated (think Jeter), but if you're truly great you'll do fine.

Posted by Mo | June 27, 2008 5:28 PM

How about Portland? That's a loaded young team with a huge future (Oden, Roy, Aldridge et al) and a super-rich owner ready to spread the wealth.

Don't need him, can't afford him. Are you the mikey from S,N!? You just got Jerryd Bayless! He's your fourth potential All-Star under 24! Don't be greedy.

If you're talking about marketability, why go to a nothing team vs. the league's premiere team?

Kobe Bryant.

has playing for the Knicks done anything for ... Starbury's marketing?

Without question.

Posted by scythia | June 27, 2008 5:38 PM

Boston and LA were considered to have the best benches in the NBA.

I'm not sure that's right. More specifically, I have a pretty clear recollection of a lot of the basketball pundits at ESPN and SI picking the Lakers in part because of the Laker bench superiority. Moreover, I seem to recall that, prior to the beginning of the playoffs, people said that the Celt weakness was its bench, and that if they didn't win, it would be because the bench hadn't been up to spec.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | June 27, 2008 5:39 PM

Well, here's an interesting tidbit: According to Dave D'Allesandro of the Newark Star Ledger, last night the Cavs offered Wally World's expiring contract to the Nets in exchange for Vince Carter (3 more years at $45+ million). The Nets obviously didn't go for it. But if the Cavs really thought that Nets were a potentially serious LeBron suitor, why would they be helping the Nets get way WAY under the cap?

Posted by Al | June 27, 2008 5:53 PM

scythia - Portland is clearing cap space for a big free agent push - looking for the right piece to help push the young roster over the top. But I think it is in 2009 not 2010 that most of their contracts expire. The dreamers here are seeing visions of Chris Paul dancing through the Rose Garden....

Posted by Tiparillo | June 27, 2008 7:30 PM

The problem with this theory is that LeBron is already surrounded by mediocre talent in Cleveland. Seriously, the Cavs are the LeBron team. And how's they do? They took the ultimate NBA champion to seven games. Detroit didn't do that. LA didn't do that.

So, the Nets would be the LeBron team - and they'd be a force anyway. He's not just immensely talented, but he's gifted all over the court, and can carry a team. As a Celtics fan, I say that guy looked a lot more like the MVP than Kobe.

Posted by joe from Lowell | June 27, 2008 8:29 PM

too many steves,

DeLonte West is their best young guy, and he's got "average pg, at best" written all over him.

Is that what the Chinese characters say?

Seriously, your point guard needs to be someone you can trust, and who can make good decisions. That thing on his neck gives me pause.

Posted by joe from Lowell | June 27, 2008 8:35 PM

Love this thread. Nothing to add about Lebron. When I think C's bench, I think James Posey. He was a huge asset, tough D and raining 3's. PJ Brown was very capable, too, and very important as a backup/fill-in for Perkins. The rest was unremarkable and easily replaced by any other bunch of 8th - 10th men.

Posted by DKE | June 27, 2008 8:51 PM

When is MY gonna finally rip his (and my) Wizards for yet another awful draft. Another project big man?

Posted by pittanylion | June 27, 2008 11:05 PM

Mmm. My recollection is that he [Shaq] thought Orlando low-balled him initially, and also thought that management had picked Penny as the lead dog of the team (with appropriate market focus) over him.

No, he just thought Orlando was a small, shitty market and preferred to be in LA.

Posted by right | June 28, 2008 12:38 AM

To follow up on Al's comment about the Cavs offering the Nets Wally for Carter, the reason they offered to help the Nets lower their cap was simple----the talent upgrade for the Cavs would allow them 2 really great chances at a title before LeBron's contract expires, which is their best chance at keeping him. If he bolts anyways, they can feel like at least they got a title or two first, and they'd still have Carter to fill a seat or two.

Interesting three team dance going on here, so it's interesting the original post mentions Michael Redd, because until the Jefferson trade, he was being rumored in trade talks with Cleveland for Wally, Gibson or Sideshow Bob, plus a first round pick. Now that the Bucks got Jefferson, they likely aren't in full rebuilding mode anymore, taking Redd off the market. Could it be that the Nets had better offers for RJ but prefered to thusly kill 2 birds with one stone? Might there be a tacit agreement involved between the Nets and Bucks that Redd can never become a Cav?

Posted by stan | June 28, 2008 3:05 AM

The Cavs offered Wally Szerbiak for Vince Carter?

Really?

Seriously?

Vince Carter is a dog and waste of talent, but for Wally World?

That's gotta be a fake rumor.

As for LBJ in NYC, it's a no brainer.

The LeBron/Jay-Z thing is real.

Ya'll think like it's about "basketball."

LeBrons ain't about basketball - he's about being a Global Icon.

Who knows how to work every angle? Jay-Z. Marketing, Music, Clothing Lines, Liquor.

Jay-Z can guide LeBron through this shit, like Virgil leading Dante through the Inferno.

Jay is gonna be like Puffy to LeBron's Biggie.

Just wait.

Brooklyn Nets in the House!!!

Pure Madness.

Inevitable.

Posted by Butch Balls With Ya Bad Self | June 28, 2008 3:29 AM

"Jersey would become Cleveland if he were to go there."

This is a great comment, even taken outside the basketball context.

Posted by Ed | June 28, 2008 3:29 AM

Stating that Boston had one of the best two benches in the league while simultaneously telling someone else they don't know the NBA is, um, ironic I suppose...

Posted by Stacy | June 28, 2008 4:24 AM

Stating that Boston had one of the best two benches in the league while simultaneously telling someone else they don't know the NBA is, um, ironic I suppose...

Posted by Stacy | June 28, 2008 4:26 AM

Some idiot named 'James' (not the player, the guy who posted) has obviously had his head in the sand for the past two years. Baron Davis made it to the second round of the playoffs in 2007 by leading the Warriors to one of the greatest upsets in sports history (8 seed knocking off a 1 seed)BD fo sho yaddaddamean!!!

Posted by Devin | June 28, 2008 6:57 AM

You could make the case? I'd like to see someone make another case! He is easily the best player now. For me, the only real competitor is Kobe but Lebron wins out on heart, character, lack of whining and leadership. His teammates actually respect and like him. Kobe is a narcissistic punk. Just look at his body language when he doesn't get the ball or, heaven forbid, one of his teammates misses a shot.

If you were building your team right now, who is your first pick? Further evidence...look how Kobe did versus the Celtics compared to Lebron. Not even close.

Posted by NA Patriot | June 28, 2008 12:09 PM

I think after last night's grand larceny, the Nets probably have the second-best roster situation in the entire league (after Portland). From NetsDaily via TrueHoop:

The roster now has three 20-year-olds (Ryan Anderson, Brook Lopez and Yi Jianlian), two 21-year-olds (Chris Douglas Roberts and Sean Williams), a 22-year-old (Marcus Williams), a 23-year-old (Josh Boone), a 24-year-old (Nenad Krstic), a 25-year-old (Devin Harris) and a 26-year-old (DeSagana Diop)( 11 players 26 or younger. Unless you count Darrell Armstrong and Keith Van Horn, you can only find one Net who's over 30.

I think Brook Lopez will be a career backup center, and Ji and CDR are destined for mediocrity. Theres a reason CDR fell to 40.

Young garbage is still garbage, it just doesn't smell as much.

Posted by rochrist | June 28, 2008 4:53 PM