« Renting Up | Main | May Fundraising »

Obama on Metro Policy

21 Jun 2008 05:07 pm

As I noted when talking about his competitiveness speech, Barack Obama just doesn't seem to be able to reach his true rhetorical heights when going into detail about policy. But he has pretty good policies, as evidenced again by a speech he gave earlier today in Miami on "metropolitan policy." Like Ezra Klein I think it's good to see him frame it in this terms, since we're at a point where the boundaries of our functional economic units -- metro areas -- have very little correspondence with formal government boundaries. Another good framing point:

To seize the possibility of this moment, we need to promote strong cities as the backbone of regional growth. And yet, Washington remains trapped in an earlier era, wedded to an outdated “urban” agenda that focuses exclusively on the problems in our cities, and ignores our growing metro areas; an agenda that confuses anti-poverty policy with a metropolitan strategy, and ends up hurting both.

This is a point that urban policy people have been trying to push into the mainstream for a while. The fact that Obama's saying this means, among other things, that his team is paying attention to the right people. But we have poor people who don't live in cities, and cities are facing issues besides poverty -- among other things, we have the question of how to make it affordable for non-rich people to live in nice urban areas. Other highlights:

This is putting enormous pressure on the Highway Trust Fund, which can no longer keep up with all the repairs that have to be made. Yet Senator McCain is actually proposing a gas tax gimmick that would take $3 billion a month out of the Highway Trust Fund and hand it over to the oil companies. Well, at a time when the Highway Trust Fund is beginning to run a deficit for the first time in history, I think that’s the last thing we can afford to do. [...]

But when it comes to rebuilding America’s essential but crumbling infrastructure, we need to do more, not less. Cities across the Midwest are under water right now or courting disaster not just because of the weather, but because we’ve failed to protect them. Maintaining our levees and dams isn’t pork barrel spending, it’s an urgent priority, and that’s what we’ll do when I’m President. I’ll also launch a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank that will invest $60 billion over ten years, and create nearly two million new jobs. The work will be determined by what will maximize our safety, security, and shared prosperity. Instead of building bridges to nowhere, let’s build communities that meet the needs and reflect the dreams of our families. That’s what this bank will help us do. [...]

Let’s invest that money in a world-class transit system. Let’s re-commit federal dollars to strengthen mass transit and reform our tax code to give folks a reason to take the bus instead of driving to work – because investing in mass transit helps make metro areas more livable and can help our regional economies grow. And while we’re at it, we’ll partner with our mayors to invest in green energy technology and ensure that your buses and buildings are energy efficient. And we’ll also invest in our ports, roads, and high-speed rails – because I don’t want to see the fastest train in the world built halfway around the world in Shanghai, I want to see it built right here in the United States of America.

Not that America was the world's leader in high-speed rail until the Chinese came along, but whatever -- I want to see the fastest train here, too. I'll be interested to see how much of a difference a somewhat different set of federal transportation policy priorities makes in practice. The Bush administration has been extremely hostile to rail transportation and not very interested in anything that's not cars. Nevertheless, the country's actually seen quite a lot in terms of light rail projects undertaken and cities trying to make themselves more bike friendly. It's at least conceivable that a relatively small change in federal policy could have a pretty big impact on decision-making at the state and local level -- as with education policy, the feds aren't really the key drivers, but they sometimes have the ability to leverage big changes with relatively small sums of money.

Share This

Comments (41)

Not that America was the world's leader in high-speed rail until the Chinese came along, but whatever

That's not what he said. I think you're overlooking what's particularly smart about this message.

Many suburban swing voters absolutely hate hearing someone say: Don't drive! Take a train! Ride a bike! In fact, you may have noticed how many of your readers bristle when you bring up these issues. All they hear is message that seems to deny them of something they love (their convenience of their cars) and push them towards something that's good for them, but they find distasteful.

They also get rightfully annoyed by people suggesting that avoiding mass transit is somehow evidence of selfishness or a lack of personal will, when in fact abandoning cars is often physically and economically unfeasible in many parts of the country. Indeed, even the word "green" suggests an eat-your-spinach message.

By framing it not as a message of reforming personal behavior and instead as what seems to be a pro-business, pro-technology message that stress American national pride, Obama's selling us on diet of spinach but making it sound like juicy red meat. This kind of message and thinking also serves to address the larger problems with infrastructure and development that make it so hard to ween Americans off private cars.

The paper Sprawl and Urban Growth, by a Harvard researcher Matthew cited in an earlier post on infrastructure and urban development, Ed Glaeser, addresses the prospects for a shift from cars to mass transit and from sprawling suburbs to denser housing.

Among Glaeser's main points:

- Sprawl is very common ("ubiquitous") and growing.

- The fundamental driver of sprawl is the car. As long as cars remain the dominant means of transportation, sprawl will probably continue to be the dominant urban form. Zoning and other regulations may contribute to sprawl, but they are relatively minor factors.

- Sprawl is associated with lower congestion, shorter commute times, bigger homes, and other social benefits.

- The environmental costs of sprawl have been largely overcome through technological advances.

- Sprawl does not have significant social costs or economic productivity costs.

Actually not the Chinese, we lost the lead in high speed rail in the 60s to Europe. First the French with the TGV and then the Germans and then the Brits and now damn near everyone. You have to go back to the 40s at least to find a period when US railroads lead the world in passenger service. They struggled in the 50s and gave up totally in the 60s leading to the creation of Amtrak in 1970. Competition from cars and planes (both subsidized by the gov.) was the major factor but loss of mail hauling contracts drove in the final nail.

If we want a useful nationwide passenger rail system in this country (like Europe) we are going to have to build it almost from scratch. The fright railroads are in a different business and see passenger rail as orthogonal to that business. This is unfortunate but it's hard to blame them, they are in business to make a profit and no one, including the Europeans and the Chinese, have ever managed to do that with passenger rail. It's like asking the Interstate highway system to make a profit... OBTW, have the airlines ever been net profitable over a 10 year period? Just asking ;-)

JT

As for Obama, his apparent desire for a shift to mass transit is clearly at odds with his proposals for investments in new electrical infrastructure and new automobile fuels and technology that will have the effect of making driving more attractive, not less. As his website informs us:

Obama will invest $150 billion over 10 years to advance the next generation of biofuels and fuel infrastructure, accelerate the commercialization of plug-in hybrids, promote development of commercial-scale renewable energy, invest in low-emissions coal plants, and begin the transition to a new digital electricity grid.

Again, whatever fiddling you do with mass transit at the local level, the only way you're going to induce a large-scale shift from driving to using mass transit by Americans in general is to significantly raise the costs of driving relative to the costs of using mass transit, and Obama's proposals above will tend to have the opposite effect.

because I don’t want to see the fastest train in the world built halfway around the world in Shanghai, I want to see it built right here in the United States of America.

This is mistake. We need to build an optimal transit service, not the fastest. To do so will inevitably create a white elephant (see for example, the Concorde)

It's the same reason we're not in the 'tallest building in the world' business anymore. Two 80 story towers cost less and have much more room than a single 110 story one. And four 40 story towers are even more practical.

I should say not *necessarily* the fastest.

If there's some technical breakthrough that makes a 400 mph train more efficient and economical than alternatives, then by all means build it.

If we want a useful nationwide passenger rail system in this country (like Europe) we are going to have to build it almost from scratch.

We're never going to have a useful nationwide passenger rail system in this country. At least, not in the foreseeable future. We're simply too big and spread out. Beyond distances of a few hundred miles, even massively-subsidized high-speed rail could not compete against air travel; it's just too slow. Long-distance passenger rail at those distances will always be limited to small niche markets catering to people for whom travelling by train is itself the main point of the trip. The vast majority of travellers, for whom time and cost are far more important considerations, will stick to driving or flying.

And even at shorter distances, rail isn't remotely competitive without massive government subsidies. The federal government already subsidizes rail travel on the order of $200 for every $6 in subsidies it provides for air travel, just to maintain rail's current minuscule market share. Passenger rail is fundamentally a technology of the 19th and 20th centuries, and absent radical new developments (e.g., 4,000 mph maglev trains running in vacuum tubes), it simply cannot compete against air and road.

"And even at shorter distances, rail isn't remotely competitive without massive government subsidies. The federal government already subsidizes rail travel on the order of $200 for every $6 in subsidies it provides for air travel, just to maintain rail's current minuscule market share."

I give you the example of Europe. There are many city pairs in Europe that have comparable distances to existing and proposed 'rail corridors' in this country. The Chicago/Milwaukee/St Louis/Twin Cities routes are very doable with existing technology and could well serve business travelers. California and the North West have done a very good job with meager resources. Even NY/Chicago COULD be a reasonable overnight business trip, it certainly was when I was a kid in the 50s. It's significantly slower today unfortunately.

One of the things most overlooked about passenger rail is that it doesn't just serve the endpoints, it serves the entire route. Profitable? No, not in our lifetimes. Energy efficient (green), damn right. And as I noted, there is serious question whether commercial aviation has ever (!) been net profitable over time (pick any period you like longer than 10 years).

It's a question of choices folks. Where are we going to put the resources? We could do a LOT worse to make and investment in passenger rail comparable to the 'National Defense Interstate Highway System' that killed medium distance passenger rail in this country.

JT

I give you the example of Europe. There are many city pairs in Europe that have comparable distances to existing and proposed 'rail corridors' in this country.

And how much of the cost of providing rail service between those European city pairs is funded by government subsidies rather than ticket sales? As I said, even now the federal government subsidizes rail passengers something like $200 for every $6 in subsidies to air passengers. Why should rail get even this absurdly disproportionate level of subsidy, let alone an even higher one?

One of the things most overlooked about passenger rail is that it doesn't just serve the endpoints, it serves the entire route. Profitable? No, not in our lifetimes. Energy efficient (green), damn right.

Whatever energy efficiency advantage intercity passenger rail may have over alternative forms of travel, it will always simply be too small a share of total passenger-miles to have a significant impact on our total consumption of energy.

And as I noted, there is serious question whether commercial aviation has ever (!) been net profitable over time (pick any period you like longer than 10 years).

Southwest Airlines, the largest airline in the world by passenger volume, has made a profit every year for the past 35 years. Numerous foreign airlines are also highly profitable. Well-run airlines like Southwest and JetBlue make money. Poorly-managed ones don't.

Guys, we have been had. I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but when Mixner starts telling us how sprawl reduces commuting time, even I can see that 'Mixner' is some kind of satirist yanking our chains. And probably ROFLHAO at the thought that we would believe anyone like 'Mixner' could even exist.

'Mixner', my hat is off to you. Until a week ago you seemed to pull it off, and if you could get back in the groove I would watch with admiration. Although I cannot consider it entirely healthy to send so much time on an elaborate such as this, but you know best where your strengths lie. Go to, m'lad, hammer and tong- you'll beat the 21st century yet!

"Again, whatever fiddling you do with mass transit at the local level, the only way you're going to induce a large-scale shift from driving to using mass transit by Americans in general is to significantly raise the costs of driving relative to the costs of using mass transit, and Obama's proposals above will tend to have the opposite effect."

Ok. Except that if you raised the price of gas to $10 today and sent everyone clamoring for the nearest train, you'd have yourself a big problem. We can't encourage higher ridership of railways until we have a functional rail network.

TH,

I'm not sure what your point is. The major effect of Obama's proposed massive spending on biofuels, fuel infrastructure, plug-in hybrids, etc., would be to make driving more attractive over the long-term, not just in the near future until more railways are built. In fact, they are unlikely to have much effect on near-term demand. If he wants a basic change in our national transportation usage patterns away from private cars and towards more use of public transportation, especially rail, spending more on roads and the development of fuel-efficient cars is the last thing he should be doing.

catowner,

I've rarely come across anyone who holds as many false factual beliefs as you do and who is at the same time so utterly convinced that his false beliefs are true.

From the Glaeser study I cited earlier:

While congestion may be slowing commutes in some edge cities, in most cases, the car-based urban frontier has far shorter commutes than the old public transportation cities (Gordon, Kumar and Richardson 1991). Cars are just so much faster than public transportation that commutes in the old dense cities are almost always much longer than in their newer, sprawling competitors. Thus, the average commute in New York City is the longest of any large city—39 minutes. In the edge cities, the average commute is 21 minutes about one-half of this amount. The savings of more than 30 minutes per day in travel time represents one of the biggest welfare effects of sprawling cities.

"And how much of the cost of providing rail service between those European city pairs is funded by government subsidies rather than ticket sales? As I said, even now the federal government subsidizes rail passengers something like $200 for every $6 in subsidies to air passengers. Why should rail get even this absurdly disproportionate level of subsidy, let alone an even higher one?"

Err, did you miss the part where I said like the Interstate Highway program? Which was a federal infrastructure program that is maintained (poorly) out of a sinking fund driven by the gas tax but was originally paid for by massive government spending. I believe it's called an 'infrastructure investment' which is just what I am calling for. There is a lot of chicken and egg in your argument, I agree that Amtrack will always be heavily subsidized in its current shrunken and non-rational form. What we are missing is a national transportation policy, at least a formal one, we have had a De facto one for 50 years that has favored cars and airlines, massively. A decent and robust midrange rail system would have a chance of being no more subsidized then the airlines, perhaps less.

I'll give you Southwest, Herb deserves a lot of credit for a smart and well run business, but $150 a gallon oil will kill him sooner or later when his hedges run out. He is the exception that proves the rule, airlines are basically a business model designed to lose lots money over a long period of time. But air lines are a red herring in this discussion, we are not talking about NY to LA here, we're talking Chicago to the Twin Cities and similar corridors. The airlines are not the target, cars are the target. Before the damn things completely eat our lunch. I'm willing to pay for that as it seems to have been a good deal for the Europeans. When I go to Europe on business I use the train 90% of the time.

OBTW, if the air lines want to make money they are going to need to be able to charge a rate that permits a reasonable and consistent profit. That implies re-regulation and public supervision of their books along with tariffed rates (and perhaps a decent level of service?), The airline market is too cutthroat and short sighted to rely on market forces alone.

JT

JT,

Err, did you miss the part where I said like the Interstate Highway program? Which was a federal infrastructure program that is maintained (poorly) out of a sinking fund driven by the gas tax but was originally paid for by massive government spending. I believe it's called an 'infrastructure investment' which is just what I am calling for.

Err, the federal government collects more in gas taxes than it spends on road and highway infrastructure. In 1992, the most recent year for which it reports data, the federal government collected $4.5 billion more in gas tax revenues than it spent on roads and highways.

You didn't answer my question: Why should rail get even its current absurdly disproportionate level of subsidy, let alone an even higher one? A serious answer please, not a handwave.

What we are missing is a national transportation policy, at least a formal one, we have had a De facto one for 50 years that has favored cars and airlines, massively. A decent and robust midrange rail system would have a chance of being no more subsidized then the airlines, perhaps less.

What de facto policy was that? And if you seriously believe that a rail system could be remotely competitive with road and air without massively higher subsidies, show me your evidence for that assertion.

The airlines are not the target, cars are the target. Before the damn things completely eat our lunch.

Yet another bizarre assertion. "eat our lunch." What the hell is that supposed to mean?

I'm willing to pay for that as it seems to have been a good deal for the Europeans. When I go to Europe on business I use the train 90% of the time.

The only reason you can afford to use those trains is because your tickets are massively subsidized by European taxpayers. If you had to pay anything like the true cost of actually providing the service, you'd never use it at all, because it would be far too expensive. You'd fly or drive instead.


Mixner:

Your claims regarding the potential for plug-in hybrids for reducing motor fuel usage by 75% or more may be technically accurate, but I seriously doubt going "30 miles on a $1.00 worth of electricity" is probable, except perhaps for micro-cars considerably smaller than a Prius. Given the need for either cap & trade or preferably a refundable carbon tax, your $1.00 is likely to be more like $3.00 or $4.00 by the time PHEVs are a significant factor, in 10-15 years or so.

Similarly, much hype to the contrary, the current price per KwH of storage for automotive lithium-ion batteries is around $1,000, which implies a need for $14,000-$15,000 worth of batteries over a typical 150,000 mile lifetime for batteries. That is, in addition to the price of electricity itself, another $0.10-$0.20 per mile to amortize said batteries. There is simply no assurance that battery prices will come down significantly, particularly in the likely skyrocketing demand for lithium and related resources when PHEVs enter the U.S., European, Japanese, Indian and Chinese markets in the next five years.

My educated guess is that--due to the very high cost of battery replacements after 150,000 miles even should the price come down, say 40%-50%--automobile manufacturers will prefer to sell you a vehicle sans batteries, and lease batteries over their life at a cost of $0.05 to $0.10 per mile. Thus, for both electricity and batteries, you're talking about $0.10-$0.20 per mile depending on the size of the vehicle and battery packs, e.g., not that much less than now.

Mixner:

Your claims regarding the potential for plug-in hybrids for reducing motor fuel usage by 75% or more may be technically accurate, but I seriously doubt going "30 miles on a $1.00 worth of electricity" is probable, except perhaps for micro-cars considerably smaller than a Prius. Given the need for either cap & trade or preferably a refundable carbon tax, your $1.00 is likely to be more like $3.00 or $4.00 by the time PHEVs are a significant factor, in 10-15 years or so.

Similarly, much hype to the contrary, the current price per KwH of storage for automotive lithium-ion batteries is around $1,000, which implies a need for $14,000-$15,000 worth of batteries over a typical 150,000 mile lifetime for batteries. That is, in addition to the price of electricity itself, another $0.10-$0.20 per mile to amortize said batteries. There is simply no assurance that battery prices will come down significantly, particularly in the likely skyrocketing demand for lithium and related resources when PHEVs enter the U.S., European, Japanese, Indian and Chinese markets in the next five years.

My educated guess is that--due to the very high cost of battery replacements after 150,000 miles even should the price come down, say 40%-50%--automobile manufacturers will prefer to sell you a vehicle sans batteries, and lease batteries over their life at a cost of $0.05 to $0.10 per mile. Thus, for both electricity and batteries, you're talking about $0.10-$0.20 per mile depending on the size of the vehicle and battery packs, e.g., not that much less than now.

Your claims regarding the potential for plug-in hybrids for reducing motor fuel usage by 75% or more may be technically accurate, but I seriously doubt going "30 miles on a $1.00 worth of electricity" is probable, except perhaps for micro-cars considerably smaller than a Prius.

The prototype plug-in hybrid Ford Escape has already been demonstrated to get 30 miles on $1 of electricity. The production model is expected to be on sale around 2010. And that's just a first-generation PHEV, and it's an SUV. For smaller PHEV vehicles, energy costs will likely be even lower. And subsequent generations of PHEVs will likely be even more efficient. Just like each new generation of the Prius has been more efficient than the last. The Toyota Prius is already more energy-efficient and less polluting per passenger-mile than transit buses and most transit trains.

Given the need for either cap & trade or preferably a refundable carbon tax, your $1.00 is likely to be more like $3.00 or $4.00 by the time PHEVs are a significant factor, in 10-15 years or so.

Assuming these are supposed to be inflation-adjusted numbers, they are not remotely plausible. Even a carbon tax of $100/ton of CO2 would add only about $1 to a gallon of gas. Since gas is now around $4/gallon, this would add around $0.25 to $1's worth of gas. So even with the tax it wouldn't be $3 or $4, it would be $1.25. Less than a third of the current price of gas.

Similarly, much hype to the contrary, the current price per KwH of storage for automotive lithium-ion batteries is around $1,000, which implies a need for $14,000-$15,000 worth of batteries over a typical 150,000 mile lifetime for batteries.

The average vehicle today gets about 20 mpg. So your 150,000 miles translates to 7,500 gallons of gas. At $4/gallon, that's a lifetime fuel cost of $30,000. So even a first-generation PHEV could be expected to save $20,000 or more in fuel costs over the life of vehicle. So even at the battery price you state above, the owner would save $5,000 to $6,000 compared to a conventional vehicle. Of course, battery technology is advancing rapidly, costs are coming down, and mass production will produce economies of scale yielding even lower costs.

In fact, even the current Prius, which is just a regular hybrid, gets almost 50 mpg. At $4/gallon, and using your 150,000 lifetime miles, that's a lifetime fuel cost of $12,000. So even the current Prius saves around $18,000 in fuel costs compared to the average auto. The sticker price premium of the Prius isn't anything close to $18,000.

And also, of course, gas prices affect the cost of transit too. Most buses and some trains run on diesel. Most electricity is generated from coal. So a carbon tax would also raise the cost of almost all transit services.

You can quibble about the numbers, but under any reasonable assumptions and calculations, new auto fuels and technologies will almost certainly reduce the cost of driving relative to using mass transit compared to what it is now. People will have even less incentive to use mass transit than they do now.

While congestion may be slowing commutes in some edge cities, in most cases, the car-based urban frontier has far shorter commutes than the old public transportation cities (Gordon, Kumar and Richardson 1991). Cars are just so much faster than public transportation that commutes in the old dense cities are almost always much longer than in their newer, sprawling competitors. Thus, the average commute in New York City is the longest of any large city—39 minutes.

Well, of course the biggest (by far) city of America is going to have the longest commute time! The author is comparing New York City to smaller cities that are more automobile dependent! And the smaller cities have shorter commute times because they are smaller!

Look, sprawl works for a period of time, because the car is faster and more flexible than transit. But eventually, sprawl makes all the roads impassible, because it is so difficult to expand roads in already-developed areas and because the arteries in the center of the city, along with city streets, get backed up from all the traffic resulting from the additional sprawl.

So the real question is if you had a city the size of New York but with no subways or commuter rail, what would the commute times? And I seriously doubt the answer would be "faster than they are now". Ask anyone in the Holland Tunnel or on the Long Island Expressway if the commute times would be faster if all the people currently on the trains were driving instead.

The cycle is that a certain point, the sprawl gets so bad that you can no longer get from point A to point B because the roads are so clogged. And at that point, you better hope you have transit or your city becomes useless.

If Obama follows the Yglesias priority list -- crawling out of Iraq, burning down your local Walmart and sharing the road at 15 MPH with some pompous asshole riding his bike to work -- I see great opportunities for the Republican Party in 2010.

We're never going to have a useful nationwide passenger rail system in this country. At least, not in the foreseeable future. We're simply too big and spread out.

Mixner: nobody who's seriously looking at transportation issues believes the United can have or needs a nationwide passenger rail system. You're probably never going to find the trip from Boise to Charleston is best accomplished on a train. Strangely, that's pretty much the same for Europe, where you probably wouldn't want to travel from, say, Lisbon to Stockholm in similar fashion.

But what American can (economically) have is a series of regional passenger train networks that support much more of the transportation burden than is the case now. The Bos-Wash corridor (perhaps eventually the Bostlanta corridor), the Great Lakes urban belt, the Pacific coast, Florida and Texas are all regions that in future may well require robust rail networks to deal with congestion and high fuel costs.

Mixner is employing a very neat little cherrypicking of apples-and-oranges comparisons here, when he tries to tell us sprawl reduces commuting time. His conclusion is drawn from a process that basically compares commuting time in a suburb in Indiana to commuting time in Queens NYC.

But if you compared Prince William County in Virgina (suburban) with Chicago, you'd find that commute times are lower in Chicago. At that point Mixner would start talking about something else (or challenge you to a cherry-picking competition) and so should we.

First there's the quality of life issue- on the train or bus, you can read. In the car, you can be one of the lucky 40,000 who draw the death card each year. The choice is yours. You are allowed to consider the cost of the car, insurance, etc etc when you make your choice. Maybe you'd rather take an extra month off each year instead of paying for a car.

Secondly, the suburbs are on the perimeter. This has a lot of interesting topological implications, but anyone who's lived or visited in the suburbs already knows the bottom line- driving forever! And hey, what could be more fun than driving- when you're eight years old.

As Ezra Klein notes, McCain wants to make carbon emissions more expensive while he also wants to make fuel cheaper. He is, you might say, of two minds about the subject. Or, you might also say he's a liar.

I think that in a race for the Presidency, Obama's urban thinking has nailed it. As President, he can help, but it's up to us, as cities, counties, and states, to actually implement, especially strategies like walking, biking, and transit, which actually address the GHG problems most effectually. Except in Mixner's world, of course.

There are parts of this country that I wish I could travel to by train. Some locations are too far to drive. Some locations are too congested with traffic. I hate flying, and I'd never, ever, get on a bus again.

It's a shame that just to consider building decent train systems around the country, we are certain that they will end up being fund busting boondoggles like that disastrous highway up in Boston.

Right now, NYC needs several new tunnels and bridges. There should be more express trains chugging up and down the East Coast.

Amtrak just isn't cutting it.

I hate flying

I'm not sure the fear/hatred of flying on the part of a few small segments of the population is a worthwhile motivation to drive transportation policy. High speed intercity rail is a worthwhile idea because it can relieve congestion on highways and airports, particularly since clogging up airports with lots of short-haul flights to airports far from downtown causes delays and isn't an effective use of airport resources and our time.

On the other hand, Mixner thinks our transportation policy should be driven by his own neuroses, so such a claim isn't unprecedented.

It's a shame that just to consider building decent train systems around the country, we are certain that they will end up being fund busting boondoggles like that disastrous highway up in Boston.

While it was budget-busting, it actually works pretty well. Did they get a good ROI for $14 billion? Maybe not, but in 25 years, people will wonder how we ever got along without it.

The fact that Obama's saying this means, among other things, that his team is paying attention to the right people

If Obama's listening to Ezra Klein, who likes to dictate traffic laws but doesn't know how to drive, and who thinks not living in a large city is a universal cause of depression, BHO's definitely not listening to the right people.

Dilan Esper,

Well, of course the biggest (by far) city of America is going to have the longest commute time!

Huh? Commute times are a matter of density and transportation mode, not size. New York has the longest commutes because it is so dense and because such a large share of its commuters use public transportation. There is no meaningful correlation between the size of a metropolitan area and its average commute time.

Look, sprawl works for a period of time, because the car is faster and more flexible than transit. But eventually, sprawl makes all the roads impassible, because it is so difficult to expand roads in already-developed areas and because the arteries in the center of the city, along with city streets, get backed up from all the traffic resulting from the additional sprawl.

Look, you simply don't know what you're talking about. You're making claims that have been dispoven by empirical research. Sprawl does not "makes all the roads impassible." Read the Glaeser paper.

Jasper,

Mixner: nobody who's seriously looking at transportation issues believes the United can have or needs a nationwide passenger rail system.

I agree. But JT apparently doesn't. He said "If we want a useful nationwide passenger rail system in this country (like Europe)..." That's the comment I was responding to.

But what American can (economically) have is a series of regional passenger train networks that support much more of the transportation burden than is the case now.

Then show me how you think this could be done. Show me your evidence that even a regional passenger rail system could be competitive with air and road without massively higher subsidies from the government.

catowner,

Mixner is employing a very neat little cherrypicking of apples-and-oranges comparisons here, when he tries to tell us sprawl reduces commuting time. His conclusion is drawn from a process that basically compares commuting time in a suburb in Indiana to commuting time in Queens NYC.

No, catowner, I'm not merely "trying" to tell you. I am telling you. And it's not "my" conclusion. It's the conclusion of academic researchers who have actually studied commuting times in different cities across the country. If you spent less time guessing and more time trying to actually learn something about the issue, you might not keep making such a fool of yourself by constantly spouting falsehoods.

Rail allows for a much denser packing in a city. Tokyo would immediately collapse if all the rail were taken out--there's no way you're going to get the 6 million+ commuters to drive in and out of Tokyo each day.

Your other problem with roads vs. rail is that roads really only work up to a certain capacity, after which you get total gridlock, with the accompanying result on pollution and travel times. Witness the the commuting times in any cities beyond a certain size/density of population. Mixner should be doing a comparison of travel times for commuters going from location A to B by car vs. those who make the same journey by train.

If I were to try to commute in the morning via car, it would take me over an hour. By train? 20 minutes. I know which one I use....AND I don't have to pay $22 to park it for the day.

grumpy,

Rail allows for a much denser packing in a city.

Americans don't want much denser packing in a city. They want low density, because it allows them to have bigger homes, shorter commute times, and less congestion.

Mixner should be doing a comparison of travel times for commuters going from location A to B by car vs. those who make the same journey by train.

No, Mixner should not be doing that. What matters is commuting times in general, for all commuters, not merely for commutes that could be made by train instead of car.

But I strongly doubt that even most train commutes could not be done faster by car.

If I were to try to commute in the morning via car, it would take me over an hour. By train? 20 minutes.

Then your situation is highly unusual. As Glaeser points out, commutes by public transportation take almost twice as much time on average as commutes by car.


Don't bother arguing with the silly glibertarian boy: he postures as the sole arbiter of others' arguments, while asserting as irrefutable a future in which cars run on his farts. As Tyro says, it's the extrapolation of personal neurosis into public policy.

(Frankly, I think the silly boy is better suited to this mode of travel.)

Look, you simply don't know what you're talking about. You're making claims that have been dispoven by empirical research. Sprawl does not "makes all the roads impassible." Read the Glaeser paper.

Mixner, you are the one who doesn't know what you are talking about. Come to LA and I will show you that whatever your ideology tells you, sprawl DOES cause the traffic backups I am talking about.

The actual reality is that the auto companies oil companies and their friends have for many years paid for research to supposedly show that what is obviously true is in fact false. And conservatives like yourself will continue to believe it until one day, you try to get from Torrance to Pasadena in the middle of the day and find out that it is actually impossible despite all your vaunted roads.

No, Mixner should not be doing that. What matters is commuting times in general, for all commuters, not merely for commutes that could be made by train instead of car.

This is a deliberate and despicable lie. Actually, what matters is whether a given commute would be worse or better if there was a train.

The research you quote only proves that the commute in a smaller city without transit can be faster than a bigger city with transit.

The ONLY question that matters is whether, if you build a train system, you speed up some commutes. And since YOU CAN PRODUCE NOT A SHRED OF EVIDENCE THAT THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION IS "NO", YOUR STUDIES DON'T MEAN DIDDLY.

dilan esper,

Mixner, you are the one who doesn't know what you are talking about. Come to LA and I will show you that whatever your ideology tells you, sprawl DOES cause the traffic backups I am talking about.

No, you don't know what you're talking about. Your guesses and impressions and wishful thinking are not a substitute for scientific research. Researchers have studied commute times and congestion in cities across the country, and have concluded that sprawl reduces congestion and reduces commute times. The reasons for this are not hard to understand. Lower population density and infrastructure density reduces the amount of travel required within a given geographic area. For some reason, you seem incapable of grasping this. As Glaeser writes:

We find that average commute times rise with population density. The effect of density is actually less on car commuters than on noncar commuters. It is also true that across cities, there is a strong positive relationship between average commute times and the logarithm of population density

Actually, what matters is whether a given commute would be worse or better if there was a train.

No, that's not what matters. Trains could not possibly substitute for more than a small fraction of total commutes. Average commute times by public transportation, which includes trains, are almost twice as long as average commute times by car. As Glaeser writes:

We found that public transportation appears to involve a fixed time cost of approximately 16-20 minutes, regardless of length. After this fixed time costs, cars appear to be about 50 percent faster than buses and roughly as fast as trains. It is this fixed time cost that makes public transportation so costly. The time spent walking (or driving) to the station or bus stop plus the time spent waiting for the bus or train plus the time spent walking or driving to the final destination appears to take up as much time as driving ten miles. As time has gotten more valuable, the time costs of public transportation have become more severe and the population has continued to move entirely towards the automobile.


Mixner,

Please go read and educate yourself before throwing a fit:
http://www.vtpi.org/railben.pdf
http://www.vtpi.org/railcrit.pdf

Trains and transit are more than transportation tools, they are also enablers of more efficient land development and economic efficiency.

Personal vehicles are wonderful tools for rural mobility. If you want to enjoy the wide open spaces, privacy, quiet, and grinding poverty of rural life, go for it.

Please however, don't interfere with and attack the economic engines of America, its cities. High employment and employee concentration is tied to high productivity. That is why big cities and metropolitan areas produce so much more GDP that small towns. They are vastly more productive. Density increases that productivity, but universal car use is a geometric impossibility at the high concentrations needed to achieve high productivity.

Mixner,

Please go read and educate yourself before throwing a fit:
http://www.vtpi.org/railben.pdf
http://www.vtpi.org/railcrit.pdf

Trains and transit are more than transportation tools, they are also enablers of more efficient land development and economic efficiency.

Personal vehicles are wonderful tools for rural mobility. If you want to enjoy the wide open spaces, privacy, quiet, and grinding poverty of rural life, go for it.

Please however, don't interfere with and attack the economic engines of America, its cities. High employment and employee concentration is tied to high productivity. That is why big cities and metropolitan areas produce so much more GDP that small towns. They are vastly more productive. Density increases that productivity, but universal car use is a geometric impossibility at the high concentrations needed to achieve high productivity.

"Actually not the Chinese, we lost the lead in high speed rail in the 60s to Europe. First the French with the TGV and then the Germans and then the Brits and now damn near everyone."

The only really high speed rail in Britain (180mph) is the Channel Tunnel Rail Link, which was only completed last year. Successive governments have shown little or no interest in creating a genuine high speed backbone on the East and/or West coast mainlines, preferring to tinker with expensive but marginally productive upgrades to the track and new rolling stock. There are understandable reasons for this, but given how far the upgrades went over budget thanks to the glorious privatised Railtrack, a dedicated high speed line now looks pretty good value in comparison.

Jeez - after 3 dozen comments (You're wrong! No, you're wrong!) Brian S finally got it right.

Transprotation is a means to an end and not the end in and of itself. And the 1950s notion of transit taking the suburban office worker home to his suburban enclave on the 5:15 isn't the reality anymore. The daily commute is only 15% of all trips the average household takes. And the length of the commute is a meaningless stat.

Transit investments have the ability to fundamentally reshape cities and suburbs. That's why mayors from coast to coast (D's and R's) are clamoring for these investments and why the competition for federal dollars is intense. Getting the federal government to invest in your transit project is an awful bureaucratic process that takes years - but these metro leaders are still willing to go through with it becuse they want those investments. Plus, they need the money.

Couple other points: To discuss transit or rail subsidies without acknowledging highway and road subsidies is missing the boat. ['scuze the mixed metaphor] There are massive cross subsidies among different types of vehicles and at different levels of government. Its not the simplistic roads vs. transit argument.

Also, when rail is reliable and efficient it can do well. Between New York and Washington it has a higher market share than air travel. And that's in a corridor with massive needs for reinvestment.

So let's get beyond the Father Knows Best era notions of transportation. It is the 21st century and we do need a new vision for transprotation - not more of the same.


Jeez - after 3 dozen comments (You're wrong! No, you're wrong!) Brian S finally got it right.

Transprotation is a means to an end and not the end in and of itself. And the 1950s notion of transit taking the suburban office worker home to his suburban enclave on the 5:15 isn't the reality anymore. The daily commute is only 15% of all trips the average household takes. And the length of the commute is a meaningless stat.

Transit investments have the ability to fundamentally reshape cities and suburbs. That's why mayors from coast to coast (D's and R's) are clamoring for these investments and why the competition for federal dollars is intense. Getting the federal government to invest in your transit project is an awful bureaucratic process that takes years - but these metro leaders are still willing to go through with it becuse they want those investments. Plus, they need the money.

Couple other points: To discuss transit or rail subsidies without acknowledging highway and road subsidies is missing the boat. ['scuze the mixed metaphor] There are massive cross subsidies among different types of vehicles and at different levels of government. Its not the simplistic roads vs. transit argument.

Also, when rail is reliable and efficient it can do well. Between New York and Washington it has a higher market share than air travel. And that's in a corridor with massive needs for reinvestment.

So let's get beyond the Father Knows Best era notions of transportation. It is the 21st century and we do need a new vision for transprotation - not more of the same.


ccham,

The daily commute is only 15% of all trips the average household takes. And the length of the commute is a meaningless stat.

Cars are faster, more comfortable and more convenient than public transportation for trips in general, not just commutes. I have no idea why you think length of commute is a "meaningless" stat.

Transit investments have the ability to fundamentally reshape cities and suburbs. That's why mayors from coast to coast (D's and R's) are clamoring for these investments and why the competition for federal dollars is intense. Getting the federal government to invest in your transit project is an awful bureaucratic process that takes years - but these metro leaders are still willing to go through with it becuse they want those investments.

Yes, city mayors want lots of federal dollars for their cities. They always have. So what? That obviously doesn't tell us anything about general trends and preferences with respect to housing and urban development.

Couple other points: To discuss transit or rail subsidies without acknowledging highway and road subsidies is missing the boat.

Federal subsidies per passenger-mile for transit are vastly larger than federal subsidies per passenger-mile for highways.

Also, when rail is reliable and efficient it can do well. Between New York and Washington it has a higher market share than air travel.

But it's not reliable and efficient. It requires massive government subsidies just to be even nominally competitive with air. We've been over all this in other threads.

Mixner,

You missed the entire point of my comment. Universal car ownership is incompatible with high job concentration cities.

Transit vehicles (and bicycles, and walking) use less than 10% of the right of way needs of automobiles.

Transit uses 1% of the space for parking that autos do, and it can be shunted off to less valuable land. Auto parking must be near the destination. Walking requires no parking space, and bicycles about 8% of the space.

The vast land consumption/waste of autos for PARKING and roads means they cannot fit into cities as any large percentage of travel. Any large (2-3 million plus) metropolitan area that tries to develop solely around autos faces the problem that it cannot create the critical mass of jobs and employees within a given commute shed just using autos.

That is why all the "Sunbelt " cities are going after transit money, despite the fact that highway dollars are easier to obtain.

Productivity requires and critical mass of economic activity,
That critical mass requires a certain level of employment and employee density,
Auto are too SPACE INEFFICIENT to achieve such a density and critical mass,

Transit is a necessary evil of productivity, land productivity, if you will Mixner. Its purpose is to make the cities it serves more productive, by allowing A to be closer to B, not to make money moving people from point A to B.


Comments closed July 05, 2008.

Copyright © 2008 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved.