Polling the Class of 2003

At my reunion, they distributed the results of a survey of the Class of 2003 that's based on a healthily sized, though not-really-random, sample of the class. On the politically relevant points, 66 percent call themselves Democrats, 13 percent say Independent, 8 percent say Republican and the rest have sundry other self-descriptions. 19 percent are very liberal, 44 percent somewhat liberal, 27 percent in the middle, 8 percent somewhat conservative, and just 0.9 percent very conservative. A staggering 93 percent say they're "dissatisfied" with the way things are going in the United States. And in a poll of candidate preferences taken before Obama locked up the nomination, 59 percent preferred him, 18 percent liked Hillary, and 13.1 percent liked McCain.

Basically -- it's a liberal group. Perhaps not so surprisingly. Somewhat more surprising, though, is that the margin of people who say they've become more liberal since graduating (15 percent) is bigger than the margin who say they've become more conservative (12 percent). That's in line with one's sense of where the country's moved over the past five years, but goes against the stereotype of students shifting right when they encounter the "real world."

Comments

It seems to me that what should happen with students on contact with the 'real world' is that positions generated by what Dylan called "big ideals, images, and distorted facts," should give way to positions that are more reality-based.

It seemingly shouldn't matter whether one's initial unreal beliefs were that all mankind could live together in peace and harmony with flowers and sharing and sitar music, or whether one swallowed Ayn Rand, hook, line, and sinker, or whether one believed that the solution to every Third World country's problems was for the U.S. to come in, take over the country, and set things right, or whatever.

Gotta admit, though, conservative airy-fairy, ivory-tower positions seem to be less permeable to the influence of the real world than liberal ones do. I think a lot depends on whether the holders of the positions in question actually care whether they work for most people involved.

Posted by low-tech cyclist | June 8, 2008 9:26 AM

Well presumably, at Harvard, most of the class would've gone to grad school, so their "real world" experience is probably somewhat more lacking than the "Class of 2003" in general.

Posted by Michael T Sweeney | June 8, 2008 9:48 AM

To tage on to low-tech cyclist above:

Idealism, no matter what form it takes (conservative, liberal) is what is unrealistic. Perhaps the liberalism of the 1960s was unrealistic, but so too has been the idealism of the neo-cons. Obama says he's a pragmatist. I believe him. I also think McCain is a pragmatist by and large, except in the one area where idealism has brought this country to its knees -- the Iraq War. Furthermore, he is completely uninterested in the real economic problems we are facing in this country, so while he might be realistic were he to win by working with Congress rather than against Congress as Bush has done, I don't think he's going to be able to convince the voters of that over the course of this campaign.Obama is in the unique position of being able to appeal to youth and their idealism through his optimism, charisma, and lofty rhetoric/oratory, while at the same time appealing to those of us who live in the real world and who are disaffected by the war and the impact it has has on the economy. We want a practical government that works for us, and this time around, the Democrats are the realists, not the Republicans.

Posted by cnnr | June 8, 2008 9:56 AM

I suspect that the 'real world' that Harvard grads encounter is somewhat different than the world that many other students face. I'm not sure that opinions from an ultra-elite institution are closely representative of that of college grads as a whole.

However, I don't necessarily know if there is any truth to the adage in the first place. I've heard it before of course, but haven't seen statistical evidence to support it.

Posted by Nick | June 8, 2008 10:04 AM

Michael T- I think that the percentage of graduates from Harvard that go on the graduate school (even profession schools) is still well less than 50%. It's certainly lower than schools like Swarthmore or Reed. Part of this is that Harvard students, rightly or not, tend to have more options open to them right after graduation than almost anyone else- witness our host, for example.

Secondly, it's not _too_ surprising to me that a fair number of Harvard grads would become more liberal after graduating since, after all, Harvard is a pretty conservative institution, despite the reputation that elite education has in the general public. It's a bastion of class privilage and tradition, after all.

Posted by Matt (not the famous one) | June 8, 2008 10:09 AM

MT Sweeney: really, what has the real world experience you've had over the last few years been? Are the Republicans meeting our needs? They certainly aren't meeting mine. I am making fifteen thousand dollars more than I was three years ago, and I have less to spend, even though I have not taken on additional debt since that time. All of it is due to grocery,utility, medical and gas bills. All of which can be directly tied to the Iraq War. Hand to mouth is how I and my three children are living. How about you?

I'm an Independent who has sometimes voted democrat, sometimes Republican. This time around, I'm taking a chance on the Democrats. And not just for economic reasons, but because of Gitmo and wiretapping and suspension of habeas corpus and the incompetence and corruption that have dominated our government over the past seven years. And even if the Democrats don't get us out of Iraq (which I frankly don't think they will be able to, at least not in the short term), I'd rather take a chance on the way they want to conduct foreign policy than this administration has.

Posted by maria | June 8, 2008 10:11 AM

oops -- Medical bills not tied to Iraq war.

Posted by maria | June 8, 2008 10:15 AM

I care about most of the things you post about Matt but your college reunion?

Posted by aleks | June 8, 2008 10:34 AM

matt, you went to harvard?!? that may have impressed me, if you didn't bring it up fairly often.

i'm done with this blog. hillary is out of the race, i can safely return to sullivan.

Posted by bravado | June 8, 2008 10:50 AM

I graduated from college and graduate school in the 70's. I have always been a democrat but didn't think of myself as liberal or conservative during college. Looking back, I was a liberal. I may have even been a liberal in elementary school when I declared my choice for president to be JFK over Nixon. ;) As the years have gone by and I have learned more and more and as the internet has spiked my interest in politics, I have become more liberal.

I have long heard that belief that people get more conservative as they mature. I think it is baloney. Some people may start adult life as liberal and become conservative and vice-versa, but I don't think most people do that. We keep learning and the world keeps changing. Things we were sure of we become unsure of or find out are completely false. We try new ideas and read different viewpoints and look into various religious beliefs. Even people who wish to be very traditional and always do everything just as they believe things have "always" been done, find that impossible. Change is. Despite all the transformations people endure within and without, my observation is that most people do not change or only change very little how they describe themselves on the liberal/conservative continuum.

But if some study has been done on this I would love to read the results.

Posted by eve | June 8, 2008 10:55 AM

Bravado:

I don't think Matt brought up the fact that he went to Harvard in this post. He only mentioned that he went to college.

My only criticism was that such a small sample size (and a skewed one) isn't a good indicator of general attitudes.

Posted by Nick | June 8, 2008 11:28 AM

Part of the problem with becoming more conservative "naturally" as many (most conservatives) have it as we mature and recognize the world as it is, is that the current crop of acting "conservatives" have besmirched the label and meme so horribly few want to be associated with it. Few understand conservativism in its best and better lights, as for example, along the lines of Matt's colleague there at The Atlantic, Andrew Sullivan. But beyond this point even, there is a redemption of the better and best in responsible liberalism in the country, even if we have not had an expositor of it as deft as Sullivan in The Conservative Soul. I look forward to a convergence of thinking through all the debates and disagreements.

Posted by Chris | June 8, 2008 11:38 AM

Odd. No leftists at all?

Posted by eb | June 8, 2008 12:33 PM

Odd. Zero leftists?

Posted by eb | June 8, 2008 12:37 PM

Odd. Thought the first comment submission failed. But the point stands - you have conservatives on the right, liberals in the center, and socialists through communists... non-existent?

Posted by eb | June 8, 2008 12:41 PM

A geographically road campaign is cute, but it isn't necessarily the best strategy. I get that Obama doesn't to camp out in 2004 swing states, but I think there's good reason for him to start doing so for the next couple of months.

Polls move money, as much as money moves polls. By choking off McCain's path to 270, his big money contributors will be a tad more hesitant when sending their $28,500 check to the RNC. Why waste money backing a dead horse, or worse, be on record as throwing your lot in with the next a future President's opponent?

Posted by Nathan A | June 8, 2008 2:42 PM

"but goes against the stereotype of students shifting right when they encounter the "real world.""

Give it time. Your classmates are only 26 or 27. Most still don't have kids, a mortgage, and the need for a scapegoat. ;)

I'd be more curious to hear about the 15 or 20-year reunion.

Posted by Frank | June 8, 2008 6:02 PM

"A staggering 93 percent say they're "dissatisfied" with the way things are going in the United States."

But a even more staggering 98 percent said they are completely self-satisfied with themselves, their complacent smugness, and world view. They also mentioned that "did you know they graduated from Harvard".

Posted by James | June 8, 2008 6:08 PM

God! I feel so old, 50 this year and reading yr blog - I need to get a life :)

Posted by pjd | June 8, 2008 7:24 PM

"I'd be more curious to hear about the 15 or 20-year reunion."

You mean the one where Matt will talk about how he supported the Iran war because of "proliferation" concerns - and how he supported the Pakistan war because we "had to defuse the Al Qaeda threat" - and how he got hired by the New York Times as a Bill Kristol replacement because - not in spite - of the fact that he (Matt) had been wrong about the last three wars?

Posted by Richard Steven Hack | June 8, 2008 9:22 PM

Oops, that should be "four wars".

Because Matt will also be talking about how he supported Obama's move of 160,000 US troops to Afghanistan because "we need to stabilize Afghanistan to prevent an Al Qaeda resurgence."

And twenty years from today, that war will still be going on, with about 12,000 US casualties, and Matt will be writing op-eds in Bill Kristol's NYT space about how withdrawing now would be "cutting and running" when the "surge" the President just did is beginning to work.

Posted by Richard Steven Hack | June 8, 2008 9:27 PM

A lot of the idea that people become more conservative as they grow older is based on two fallacies: 1) looking only at economic views and 2) applying what happened to the Boomers to everyone else. A lot of liberal Boomers were chastened by how the results of the Great Society programs were such a mixed bag, so a lot of them moved right on economic matters (Bill Clinton being the most famous example). However, today we need things like higher taxation at some point to pay down the budget deficit.

Secondly, people tend not to really move right on social issues as they grow older. It's not like Boomers have switched to thinking the Voting Rights Act was a mistake. Instead, more and more people are being convinced that gay marriage is socially acceptable. The same has happened on foreign policy issues, especially the Iraq War. Since social issues and the war have so dominated our discourse as wedge issues, people tend to think of themselves as "liberal" or "conservative" in terms of these issues.

Posted by Reality Man | June 9, 2008 1:01 AM

MT Sweeney: really, what has the real world experience you've had over the last few years been? Are the Republicans meeting our needs? They certainly aren't meeting mine. I am making fifteen thousand dollars more than I was three years ago, and I have less to spend, even though I have not taken on additional debt since that time. All of it is due to grocery,utility, medical and gas bills. All of which can be directly tied to the Iraq War.

Right. Of course it can. Also, the Iraq War is the direct cause of David A losing American Idol. Damn those Republicans!

Posted by Mixner | June 9, 2008 1:16 AM

It's not like Boomers have switched to thinking the Voting Rights Act was a mistake. Instead, more and more people are being convinced that gay marriage is socially acceptable. The same has happened on foreign policy issues, especially the Iraq War.

Wishful thinking. The growth in opposition to the Iraq War has been the result of the lack of demonstrable progress over time and the growing number of casualties. It has nothing to do with a shift in political views on foreign policy in general. Our experience in Vietnam didn't turn the American people into doves and liberal internationalists, and Iraq hasn't either.

Posted by Mixner | June 9, 2008 1:29 AM

"Wishful thinking. The growth in opposition to the Iraq War has been the result of the lack of demonstrable progress over time and the growing number of casualties. It has nothing to do with a shift in political views on foreign policy in general. Our experience in Vietnam didn't turn the American people into doves and liberal internationalists, and Iraq hasn't either.

Posted by Mixner | June 9, 2008 1:29 AM"

False dichotomy. Did I say that Americans were turning into Ikenberry overnight? Nope. However, if you look at the polling on issues like how we should engage Iran, you do see that Americans have been chastened by reality because the Iraq War turned out how it pretty much inevitably was going to turn out.

As for the lessons learned from Vietnam, there was polling showing a chastening of American views. What changed was the Iranian Revolution and the subsequent hostage crisis that made Carter look weak and made an opening for Reagan. Even then, Reagan's biggest foreign policy victory came from meeting with Gorbachev in Iceland, not invading Granada.

Posted by Reality Man | June 9, 2008 3:00 AM

Re: It [opposition to Iraq] has nothing to do with a shift in political views on foreign policy in general.

You're actually write about this, but you may be drawing some wrong conclusions. Becauise the truth of it is the American people do not like foreign adventurism to begin with and they will only endorse it in response to grave need or in wars that are quickly won and quickly over. Colin Powell had the right of this, and the Bush administration ignored his Powell Doctrine to their ruin.

Posted by JonF | June 9, 2008 7:45 AM

But a even more staggering 98 percent said they are completely self-satisfied with themselves, their complacent smugness, and world view. They also mentioned that "did you know they graduated from Harvard".

Posted by James | June 8, 2008 6:08 PM

=================================================

Hehehe!

Posted by Campesino | June 9, 2008 11:17 AM

Give it time. Your classmates are only 26 or 27. Most still don't have kids, a mortgage, and the need for a scapegoat. ;)

I'd be more curious to hear about the 15 or 20-year reunion.

You're in luck -- I just got back from my 15th reunion and blogged about the corresponding numbers for my class. Summary: the class of 1993 looks a lot like the class of 2003.

Posted by JSE | June 10, 2008 9:21 AM