I think Barack Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee. Thoughts?
UPDATE: All joking aside, as of 5:21 PM Eastern time, Obama was available at 94.4 on Intrade.
I'd rate that a "buy."
« Bad Movies | Main | McCain's Speech »
Prediction
03 Jun 2008 05:39 pm
Comments (44)
Finally.
Matt limb; limb Matt.
I've got Pistons over Lakers in 6.
I think you are right :)
That would be my best guess as well. Finally.
sir,
too clever by a half.
yours truly
c.v. snicker
Your prediction will be foiled by a surprise GRAVELANCHE.
Finally.
Matt's Mom once said the same thing about Robert Kennedy, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. I don't understand it.
Thanks a lot Matt... Petey was right about you all along.
I think a tape of Larry Johnson yelling anti-Semitic smears at a 12-year old girl will be released. I've talked to four sources who know sources who've seen this tape.
Johnson seriously has to answer for his violent anti-Semitism.
What a disaster! We've nominated the candidate that most Democrats prefer! Oh noes!!
It's only a disaster if folks like Gabriel choose to make it one. I've had to hold my nose and vote for the Democratic candidate for President in each election I've ever cast a vote in. My candidate has NEVER won a primary. It'll be interesting to see what voting for someone I like feels like.
But I certainly didn't refer to it as a disaster when John Kerry took the nod. Or when Al Gore did. I learned about their policies and eventually came to realize that even though they weren't my first choice (Dean or Bradley) they were certainly a far better choice than George Bush. I didn't feel personally insulted that millions of other Democrats felt differently than I did -- I haven't felt insulted when friends have disagreed with me and I'm closer to them than most Democrats.
I fail to see how all this handwringing about Hillary's loss is anything other than concern trolling. She had her opportunity and made some foolish choices that cost her the nomination. I can't really feel sorry for her losing. I'm sorry for pain this causes her supporters. I'm sorry for emotional pain to her and her family. But I'm not sorry for her losing.
I'm not sorry for folks who lost money. I lost lots of money with Dean and Bradley, and I made a hell of alot less then than I do now. I cared deeply about their candidacies and volunteered for both, and I don't think any of that time was wasted. AND I NEVER THREW A FRIGGIN PITY PARTY FOR MYSELF WHEN MY CANDIDATE LOST.
He will no doubt remember you for your gutsy stand on his behalf. Are you VP-legal?
- that Obama has led the delegate count, like forever?
- that Clinton has been playing Rove for several months?
- that Bill and Hill have exposed their 'its all obout us' in the nudist colony manner for all to see?
- that the HRC campaign is an object lesson that she can't organize and manage a picnic?
- that Obama has awakened excitement not seen in the electorate since JFK/RFK?
- that Ambinder whispered the truth in your ears?
I'm bumping my Hillary-futures from RISKY to DON'T BUY.
The Yglesias prediction is the disaster, not the Obama nomination.
What was your first clue?
- that Obama has led the delegate count, like forever?
- that Clinton has been playing Rove for several months?
- that Bill and Hill have exposed their 'its all obout us' in the nudist colony manner for all to see?
- that the HRC campaign is an object lesson that she can't organize and manage a picnic?
- that Obama has awakened excitement not seen in the electorate since JFK/RFK?
- that Ambinder whispered the truth in your ears last night?
It is 6:04PM and I am starting to well up! My drink of choice later in the evening:Champage Roer Counon-it's so much fun being an elitist!
Poor Petey. Poor, poor Petey.
It is 6:04PM and I am starting to well up! My drink of choice later in the evening:Champage Roer Counon-it's so much fun being an elitist!
Once again, prediction markets prove their uncanny insight into future events.
FWIW, Yglesias called it for Hillary 2 or 3 months ago. I'd link, but I'm drunk and too lazy to look it up.
If he was jinxing her, then thanks. If he was sincere, then HAHA! MORAN!!11!1
This is EXCELLENT news!!!! For Hillary!!!!11!!!!1!
"Poor Petey. Poor, poor Petey."
Given the numbers...literally?
Well, the question is where is this 5.6% worth of doubt coming from. Recommendation: long hope.
Goosebumps, just goosebumps. I'm so proud of my party!
Does this make me irrational if I don't take the time to set up an account and max out Obama purchases until InTrade pays up?
You rate this a buy? I'd say expectations are fully priced in, with little upside potential. If I didn't own, I wouldn't buy; if I owned, I'd sell--and invest in Obama General. A fair amount of risk, but strong fundamentals, and some reason to believe that Mr. Market may be mispricing the asset.
"Obama was available at 94.4 on Intrade. I'd rate that a "buy."
Meh. Barely.
You've got to pay .5 commission on that buy, and you pay 1.0 commission on the in-the-money payoff around Labor Day.
So, in essence, you're getting a 4% return on your money for a three month tie-up, and your risk is a sex or other major scandal that probably should be priced in at around 1% or slightly higher.
As said, it may be a buy, but only very, very barely. The risk/reward ain't that much better than a CD. And two weeks from now, the Obama contract will only be selling at 96 or so.
If you'd sold Clinton short on the eve of the RBC meeting, you could've gotten a 9% net return on your money rather than the 4% net return that Matthew advocates.
-----
"Poor Petey. Poor, poor Petey."
I've had an excellent primary season on Intrade. And root for me tonight. I've got money on Clinton in both SD and MT at 20 to 1 in each state. Seemed like no-brainer bets to me, but we shall see.
I'd say expectations are fully priced in, with little upside potential.
Yep. McCain's still at 95 on the GOP side, so it's not going to get much better than for awhile. You'd have to put up $95 to make $5, and that won't pay off until it's official in August. But the larger point that Obama's chances are greater than 94.4% is still correct.
Meanwhile, Clinton for VP is up to 30 today. I'd call that a sell.
I've had an excellent primary season on Intrade. And root for me tonight. I've got money on Clinton in both SD and MT at 20 to 1 in each state. Seemed like no-brainer bets to me, but we shall see.
How much did you put on each state?
Hey Petey, can you clarify where you want the bridge delivered? You ordered it back in February, and we really do need a shipping address.
ps. Your check cleared just fine, although I had no idea that your real name was Penn.
I hate to say it but Petey is right. The risk/reward on that is not very good.
This is why Matt writes a blog rather than give financial advice.
Maybe if he went to Pennsylvania and met the man who lost his job but can't even afford the gas to drive around and look for a new one, he'd understand that we can't afford four more years of our addiction to oil from dictators. That man needs us to pass an energy policy that works with automakers to raise fuel standards, and makes corporations pay for their pollution, and oil companies invest their record profits in a clean energy future -- an energy policy that will create millions of new jobs that pay well and can't be outsourced. That's the change we need.
I support Obama, but that's just toss. There is as yet no solution to the finitude of oil. Obama gestures vaguely in the direction of a technological one -- is he going to invent it? He's staking too much on mere optimism.
We'll be addicted to oil even after it runs dry. That's the tragedy.
So now she can try to be on the ticket with the conservative, pro-Iraq war, inexperienced, muslim, anti-working class, sexist, arugula eating, wine sipping elitist candidate who is not going to be ready on day one.
Sweet, sweet unity.
Maybe it's mean to say it, but does anybody else suspect that Petey talks about betting on politics more than he actually does it?
I have to admit, I've never seen anything like the 90/10 Obama intrade odds on SD two days ago to the current 90/10 for Hillary. Let's all cheer Petey on one big win to end the season on the fairly likely chance he cashes in here.
In the interest of unity, let me congratulate Hillary Clinton for a historic campaogn. She has inspired and energized a legion of loyal followers. She has been a far better retail campaigner and a more engaging candidate than I thought she would be. (Can you imagine predicting.a year ago that she would lose due to inadequate planning and attention to detail but would be able to hold her campaign together by the force of her personality?). I believe that she has been inspired to speak for the working class, if at first for tactical reasons (like Edwards) in the end from real conviction (like Edwards).
I think Obama will be a better president and putting Clinton on the ticket as VP is a bad idea for a number of reasons, but Clinton would have been a worthy representative of the Democratic party and I would have been happy to vote for her. .
McCain is a fucking useless speechmaker.
But he's just articulated exactly Sullivan's concept of Conservatism. Mefeels a volte-face approaching.
Intrade has to be one of the stupidest metrics of conventional wisdom ever. But I guess it wouldn't do to say that Obama is "a slam dunk",; somehow, the phrase has lost its aura.
More interesting is the vp spot. If Clinton wants it, I think - in spite of my dislike for her - that she should certainly have it. This is one of those unity moments when Obama should suck it up. Besides, Clinton actually would give Obama some really sharp teeth. She's on a roll at the moment.
The price for Obama's win has gone down since this post.
Matt - I actually attempted to take that action earlier today, along with a sale of Hillary. Apparently, I can't buy in online via my credit card due to something stupid the US Gov't did to try to regulate online gaming.
I guess that means it's only a matter of time until they unveil a national lottery. Or some kind of riverboat scheme... All the revenues will, of course, go to the schools. Hahaha! Losers.
Speaking of losers, the McCain speech was an interesting run-though of Obama's platform. Basically, McCain seemed to be saying, "If you really want to see all this happen, you should vote for me because I'll do it better." Strange approach.
He will no doubt remember you for your gutsy stand on his behalf. Are you VP-legal?
Conveniently, Matt will become eligible to run for President in 2016. Thankful for his crucial early support, Obama will anoint him as the heir apparent. Yglesias will run with the slogan, "Y NOT?"
I wouldn't buy that. It is too much of a hassle for Americans to get money on there, wait three months for him to win the nomination, and get it back off. All for what? Aren't the trading limits ridiculously low?
Comments closed June 17, 2008.
| 
Heads in the Sand
DISASTER. And we were so close...
Posted by Gabriel | June 3, 2008 5:43 PM