The Missing

When you think about the national security working group that Barack Obama announced today, the most noteworthy names may not be the ones left off the list. Consider Richard Holbrooke, U.N. Ambassador at the end of the Clinton administration, "national security Democrat", and top candidate to be Secretary of State in a Kerry administration.

What's more, back in March, Dan Drezner reported that "I have it on good authority that, not only does the former UN ambassador believe that he'll be Secretary of State if either Clinton or Obama wins, he genuinely thinks he'll have a comparable position if McCain wins." He seems like a noteworthy omission from any effort to gather the great and the good of Democratic foreign policy, not that I'll miss him.

From the missed file, amidst this cluster of former senior officials there's no Zbigniew Brzezinski even though, unlike some of these folks, Zbig endorsed Obama in the primary and was even used to lend heft to an early Obama speech. He was never really a member of the team, however, and when became a lightning rod of criticism he was never heard from again. and the pattern seems to be continuing.

UPDATE: Justin Logan reminds us that William Perry, who is on the list, wanted to bomb North Korea in 2006 and John McCain wanted to bomb North Korea in 2003 (and also, I believe, back in 1994).

Comments

He needs to bring back Samantha Powers.

She is brilliant and the primary kerfluffle is over.

Posted by John B | June 18, 2008 12:08 PM

I would like to see a scorecard of what his team was saying about Iraq when Obama made his famous speech opposing the invasion.

Posted by justawriter | June 18, 2008 12:13 PM

"wanted to bomb North Korea in 2006 and John McCain wanted to bomb North Korea in 2003"

Why waste the firepower? With all of the famine, I understand NoKorea is pretty much a wasteland anyway.

Posted by CParis | June 18, 2008 12:25 PM

...and John McCain wanted to bomb North Korea in 2003 (and also, I believe, back in 1994).

Matt, there's a great topic for you to blog about. Just how many times has McCain supported starting a war? He supported the invasion of Iraq. Did he support going into Baghdad back in '91? You just mentioned bombing North Korea. Are there public comments about attacking Iran (outside of his little song)? What has his position been over the years on Lebanon, Syria, Libya, etc.?

McCain says he "hates war", but if his judgment has been to use military attacks twice as often as the U.S. has used them, I'd say that was a pretty important fact about the man.

Posted by LFC | June 18, 2008 12:29 PM

I am still fairly sure that Holbrooke will have a high position in an Obama administration. Perhaps not Sec. State, however, which could be a dealbreaker for him. But perhaps even that is in the offing.

Holbrook should not be dismissed simply on the basis of his support for the U.N. diplomacy in 2002. In fact no experienced hand should be. Obama's election will ensure the significant change in direction we seek, I am confident. He should not restrict the selection of experieced advisors on the basis of ideological litmus tests. Holbrooke's experience is extremely broad and deep and I have long held him in high esteem, notwithstanding my disagreements over Iraq in '02-'03, which in any case were not overwhelming from the prespective of ultimate policy.

I don't believe he supported invasion, even if his support of the AUMFI was in retrospect similar to Clinton's in being oversolicitous of the Administration. His viewpoint differed from hers owing to a difference in standpoint. He did not sit in Congress and reasonbly saw the impact of the legislation primarily in diplomatic terms, whereas her responsibility as a member of Congress was to assess the overall policy implications for the country at large, taking into account political realities in Washington (i.e. the legislation was a sham).

Posted by Mike | June 18, 2008 1:33 PM

I am still fairly sure that Holbrooke will have a high position in an Obama administration. Perhaps not Sec. State, however, which could be a dealbreaker for him. But perhaps even that is in the offing.

Holbrooke should not be dismissed simply on the basis of his support for the U.N. diplomacy in 2002. In fact no experienced hand should be. Obama's election will ensure the significant change in direction we seek, I am confident. He should not restrict the selection of experieced advisors on the basis of ideological litmus tests. Holbrooke's experience is extremely broad and deep and I have long held him in high esteem, notwithstanding my disagreements over Iraq in '02-'03, which in any case were not overwhelming from the prespective of ultimate policy.

I don't believe he supported invasion, even if his support of the AUMFI was in retrospect similar to Clinton's in being oversolicitous of the Administration. His viewpoint differed from hers owing to a difference in standpoint. He did not sit in Congress and reasonbly saw the impact of the legislation primarily in diplomatic terms, whereas her responsibility as a member of Congress was to assess the overall policy implications for the country at large, taking into account political realities in Washington (i.e. the legislation was a sham).

Posted by Mike | June 18, 2008 1:37 PM

It is my sincere hope that the people on that list are there because it's the last we'll hear of them--folks who need to have a bone tossed their way before being deep-sixed forever.

Warren Christopher? I thought he'd had the decency to die by now.

Posted by robert powell | June 18, 2008 1:44 PM

Holbrooke is just too scandalicious right now:

http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/06/16/mortgage-scandal-nets-two-more-obama-supporters/

Mortgage Scandal Nets More Obama Supporters

A report in Portfolio.com last week identified Dodd as one of five high-level current and former government officials to receive preferential loans from Countrywide. Former Bush Administration Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Alphonso Jackson, former Clinton Administration Secretary of Health and Human Services Donna Shalala, and Former Clinton U.N. Ambassador Richard Holbrooke were identified along with Dodd and Conrad.
================================================

I'm TOTALLY surprised Matt neglected to mention any of this.

================================================

http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/top-5/2008/06/12/Countrywide-Loan-Scandal#page1

Holbrooke, whose stint as U.N. ambassador ended in 2001, was also working in the private sector when he and his family received V.I.P. loans. He was an adviser to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.

James Johnson, who had been advising presidential candidate Barack Obama on the selection of a running mate, resigned from the Obama campaign Wednesday after the Wall Street Journal reported that he received Countrywide loans at below-market rates.

Most of the officials belonged to a group of V.I.P. loan recipients known in company documents and emails as “F.O.A.'s”—Friends of Angelo, a reference to Countrywide chief executive Angelo Mozilo. While the V.I.P. program also serviced friends and contacts of other Countrywide executives, the F.O.A.’s made up the biggest subset.

According to company documents and emails, the V.I.P.'s received better deals than those available to ordinary borrowers. Home-loan customers can reduce their interest rates by paying “points”—one point equals 1 percent of the loan’s value. For V.I.P.'s, Countrywide often waived at least half a point and eliminated fees amounting to hundreds of dollars for underwriting, processing and document preparation. If interest rates fell while a V.I.P. loan was pending, Countrywide provided a free “float-down” to the lower rate, eschewing its usual charge of half a point. Some V.I.P.'s who bought or refinanced investment properties were often given the lower interest rate associated with primary residences.

Unless they asked, V.I.P. borrowers weren’t told exactly how many points were waived on their loans, the former employee says. However, they were typically assured that they were receiving the “Friends of Angelo” discount, and that Mozilo had personally priced their loans.

Posted by Campesino | June 18, 2008 1:54 PM

Shame about Zbig, but the lobby whose name must not be spoken would prevent Obama from being elected if he were chosen. Boy, I hope Obama gets elected and somehow is able to diminish the importance of that lobby.

Posted by ossicle | June 18, 2008 1:54 PM

Shame about Zbig, but the lobby whose name must not be spoken would prevent Obama from being elected if he were chosen. Boy, I hope Obama gets elected and somehow is able to diminish the importance of that lobby.

Posted by ossicle | June 18, 2008 2:00 PM

I am looking for work...I could help with "the lobby"...and I have simmilar views to others in the "working group"!

Posted by Wool-sey | June 18, 2008 2:20 PM

The list may be made up of many hawks and Iraq war advocates but hey I can't identify any pro-torture people yet!

Posted by centrist | June 18, 2008 2:33 PM

I expect Power to be back in the next few months (and certainly if he wins the Presidency). Too soon after the primary though to bring back someone who might anger Clinton supporters.

Posted by Jeff | June 18, 2008 3:27 PM

I saw that list. What a bunch of Beltway consensus retreads. "Change we can Believe In"? Not with that list!

Posted by chimneyswift | June 18, 2008 3:47 PM

On predicting the nat sec/ fp cabinet. Matt is right on Steinberg. He has to be odds on favorite to be national security adviser. He is tough as nails, experienced, pragmatic, and the right age. It is interesting that he has been much less self promoting than many others who aspire to high office and is therefore relatively unknown.

Susan Rice will get something important but the question there is whether she will start out at the deputy level or go straight to the the top tier. If she went straight to the top she would be in the running for nat sec adv but after Condi's experience in Bush's first term there may be reluctance to appoint a someone to that post who is not obviously capable of waging bureaucratic war against big beasts should the need arise.

I would also guess that Obama will keep Gates as Sec Def with Kurt Campbell as his deputy and heir. Danzig may go to CIA should Obama decide to move Hayden. Lake would be an obvious pick for Sec of State but he has ruled himself out. That could go to a senior senator (Kerry, Biden) with S Rice as no 2. If Gates is not kept on, Hagel could take state and Danzig would go to DOD.

Finally, for many reasons Holbrooke is very unlikely to be appointed to high office in a Obama administration.

Posted by pt | June 18, 2008 5:12 PM

I told you. War with Iran is as inevitable under Obama as it is with McCain - not because Obama is a war monger but because he is clueless on foreign policy and national security - and the list of advisers proves it.

Posted by Richard Steven Hack | June 18, 2008 5:17 PM

Danzig may go to CIA should Obama decide to move Hayden.
=================================================

Will he take his pooh-bear with him?

Posted by Campesino | June 18, 2008 5:17 PM

Also relevant is that ZB is even older than John McCain. You'd want to keep an eye out for Ian or Mark, whom Newsweek once posited as an Obama adviser.

Posted by Doug | June 18, 2008 5:44 PM

Speaking of newsweek, Fareed Z could be a surprise outside the box pick. It's fair to say that if Fareed is ever to fulfill his ambition of high office, he will never have a better opportunity than the next administration. Obviously, BO was spotted with his book in hand a few weeks ago which could be significant. Question is where would he go? Policy planning? Deputy nat sec adviser? A big ideas position inside the NSC?

Posted by pt | June 18, 2008 6:10 PM

Obama's foreign policy team is a huge disappointment. One of the main reasons I supported him in the primary was due to his fresh foreign policy thinking. These are all old retreads, who have espoused some terrible policy lately.

Where are Samantha Power and Brzezinski?

Very disappointing.

Posted by BCdem | June 18, 2008 10:40 PM

From personal experience, I can tell you that Richard Holbrooke is a complete asshole and Obama -- and the US -- are better off leaving him where he is. Madeleine Albright also happens to be an asshole, but since there's no chance she would get another tour as SecState, I guess it's no harm, no foul.

Posted by Traven | June 19, 2008 12:05 AM