Obama's ahead -- "The new survey shows Obama running ahead of McCain by 48 percent to 42 percent among all adults. Among registered voters, the margin is essentially the same -- 49 percent to 45 percent." Obama's also got the support of only 80 percent of Democrats, whereas John McCain has 90 percent of Republicans and John Kerry got 89 percent of Democrats in November 2004. So in principle he could expand his lead by several points purely through base-rallying gestures
« New Drilling | Main | By Request: Al Gore »
WaPolling
17 Jun 2008 09:42 am
Comments (14)
Just to clarify -- I'm not saying that Obama should dedicate his time to reaching out to that 10% (some of whom are people who just won't vote for a "liberal like Obama", etc. -- at the risk of offending people, I'd say "some of whom are just wankers") instead of base building/"you prefer me to McSame -- well, get out in Nov. and actually vote for me" campaigning, the latter perhaps being more efficient at making sure that Obama's current lead amongst registered voters translates into an actual election victory.
I'm just sayin' that you can't expect base-rallying gestures to bring in that 10% which is not necessarily part of the base anyway. Indeed, Kerry did bring/keep those people in, and look at how much it helped him: almost only counts in hand-grenades and horseshoes ... not elections.
The lede is bizarre on that story, because it goes with the tedious CW line of 'independents being the deciding factor'.
Uh, not this year. The WaPo-ABC poll doesn't have party ID crosstabs, but Pew's big party-ID poll suggests that if you count leaners, you get close to 50% Dem ID.
And I'm in agreement for once with George Will on the idea that we really don't have a clue about polling until we get a sense of new registration and a chance to hear about methodology.
This election is a referendum on Obama. Plain and simple. If he loses it's because the country rejected him, not because they wanted McCain. That's going to leave a mark if it happens.
Four more years of Republican government of the US is what will really leave a mark. A pretty nasty mark on a many million Americans and the country as a whole.
So it's a referendum on Republican rule and campaign tactics, too.
This poll is starting to look more like I was thinking it eventually would. Obama still needs to introduce himself.
Both of those numbers are stellar for Obama since counting registered voters or even all adults is likely to give you a number that underplays Obama's likely performance in November.
He'll outperform the "registered voter numbers" since there's no question that Obama has a massive advantage among first-time votes, who tend to be either young or newly inspired to vote. In this case, both of those categories tilt well in favor of Obama. I think he'll also outperform his numbers with the adult population as a whole, due to his advantage in GOTV strategy, grassroots organization and fundraising.
It really is his to lose.
NSinNY,
It should be noted that the Republicans are also doing a registration drive to counteract the Dems.
It should be noted that the Republicans are also doing a registration drive to counteract the Dems.
I'll believe it when I see it. The most likely Republican effort vis-a-vis voter registration is a lot of bellowing and challenging new Democratic registrations (or in states with no party registration, new voters in D-leaning precincts) with allegations of "fraud." It's happened in the last two or three cycles.
The biggest break Obama's gotten this year was probably the death of Missouri's voter ID bill. If he wins the state the margin will come from poor, newly-registered blacks in St. Louis who would have been turned away under stricter rules.
It's not clear that it is realistic to expect Obama to match Kerry's support among Democrats because more people self-identify as Democrats now than in 2004. It is unlikely that 89% of these newly self-identified Democrats will support Obama because they are less likely to be progressive and more likely to accept the Republican attack lines against Obama.
From my understanding of the public opinion polls, the U.S. is becoming more (big D) Democratic, but not more progressive.
You heard it here first: Obama will consolidate the base by making Ohio Sen. Sharrod Brown his VP.
He beat an incumbent Republican senator by 12 points, would easily provide Obama with the extra 1.5% that Kerry needed to win Ohio. He also has the "working class white" thing down really well having represented Akron in congress. Watch him on youtube.
Perfect record on all liberal issues too, an independant wife who is a liberal journalist. And his daughter is a SEIU organizer.
With him on the ticket, Obama has both the liberal vote and Ohio wrapped up, and can run to the center all he wants to make his win a landslide. His replacement would be appointed by a Democratic governor, so no loss there.
It really is his to lose.
I'm optimistic, too, but don't get overconfident. I remember around this time four years ago I thought John Kerry was going to win. And I've been around long enough to remember when I thought Walter Mondale was going to win, too (granted, I was 11 years old).
Things look good for Obama right now, but a lot can happen between now and November, and it all relies on the people in the voting booth actually making the right decision. Don't count your chickens before they've hatched.
You heard it here first: Obama will consolidate the base by making Ohio Sen. Sharrod Brown his VP.
He beat an incumbent Republican senator by 12 points, would easily provide Obama with the extra 1.5% that Kerry needed to win Ohio. He also has the "working class white" thing down really well having represented Akron in congress. Watch him on youtube.
Perfect record on all liberal issues too, an independant wife who is a liberal journalist. And his daughter is a SEIU organizer.
With him on the ticket, Obama has both the liberal vote and Ohio wrapped up, and can run to the center all he wants to make his win a landslide. His replacement would be appointed by a Democratic governor, so no loss there.
A couple points:
First, if Obama splits independents with McCain Obama will win in a landslide, as this poll demonstrates.
Second, on the who is the "stronger leader" question, Obama went from 11 points down in March to 4 points down in May to exact parity in this poll. Again, McCain will lose big if this holds steady (let alone if this trend continues).
I maintain my prediction. Hillary Clinton will come back from her funk and try to screw Obama over. Bush will start the Iran war. McCain will get a "war bounch", and Obama will support the war.
Result: Obama loses in November.
Alternative outcome: Bush doesn't start the Iran war until Obama wins. Result: Obama can't do anything about it anyway, so he becomes irrelevant.
Comments closed July 01, 2008.
| 
Heads in the Sand
So in principle he could expand his lead by several points purely through base-rallying gestures
But is that 10% "the base"? I know people who are leery of Obama, but more because they are not part of the Dem. base (but more, shall we say, peripheral Dems.) but rather are so-called "moderates".
Posted by DAS | June 17, 2008 10:24 AM