Winning the Week

Good Chris Bowers rant.

Comments

Interesting. According to Bowers' forecast, McCain's "Solid" & "Leans" electoral votes combined don't even beat Obama's "Solid" electoral votes.

If McCain were to win all his "Solid" and "Leans" & Obama were do the same, then, even if McCain were to take all the "Toss-up" votes he'd still lose the electoral vote.

Posted by raff | June 30, 2008 3:42 PM

Sure, Bowers comes armed with some persuasive data.

But base on my canvassing experience this weekend in deep blue Arlington County, I'm a little concerned about Obama's poll numbers rest on a Bradley effect bubble.

I asked identified voters their prefences in three races: president, VA Senate, and US House District 8 (Jim Moran). While a strong majority favored Warner and Moran over Republicans Gilmore and Ellmore, a slight majority favored McCain over Obama. Most memorably, I remember one 82 year old white man telling me that "something doesn't quite fit" about the Democrat (Obama). I got the sense that maybe the foreign/muslim sounding name and/or skin color is hurting Obama more than the poll numbers suggest. Granted, my sample size was quite small -- 15 out of 63 responded.

My experience also makes me wonder if the Bradley effect is more likely to occur in a phone-based poll as opposed to a door-to-door survey. And, since I could pass for a conservative white guy (short hair and boring clothes), did that lead to more honesty from some voters?

Posted by Bragan | June 30, 2008 4:00 PM

Bragan,
That really sounds depressing. I hope that is not the case but I could be wrong.

Posted by Micheline | June 30, 2008 4:27 PM

Bragan, that's a depressing anecdote, but a nonrandom sample of 15 isn't evidence of anything. Plus I'd think the Bradley effect, if it exists, would be more likely to show up in face-to-face interactions. Isn't the idea supposed to be that some people are embarrassed to say they wouldn't vote for Obama when talking to a person but don't have that consideration when alone in the voting booth? Why would someone be more embarrassed on the phone than in person?

Of course I've never understood why these hypothetical people should be embarrassed to say they're voting for McCain, since there are millions of people who will be doing that, most of them for nonracist (though often still stupid) reasons.

Posted by KCinDC | June 30, 2008 6:36 PM

The problem is the lead is shrinking. It should be growing. That means Obama is going backwards and this is disturbing and very nerve wracking not just because of the Bradley effect, but also because of the way Kerry lost and to some extent Gore. Democrats always see themselves losing close elections because unlike in fiction, the bad guys win.

Posted by MNPundit | June 30, 2008 7:33 PM