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Fiscal Sanity How?

10 Jul 2008 12:11 pm

Some Brookings Institution worthies teamed up with the Heritage Foundation and the Concord Coalition along with such centrist stars as Will Marshall of DLC/PPI and Maya MacGuiness of New America to produce a report called "Taking Back Our Fiscal Future" (PDF) that nicely reflects the center-right Beltway consensus that (a) budget deficits are very bad, and (b) they should be tamed primarily by cuts to federal retirement security programs.

A rival and, in my view, sounder approach is offered under the auspices of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities with the title "A Balanced Approach to Restoring Fiscal Responsibility" (PDF). Brad Delong, one of the "Balanced Approach" team, offers a blog post sized summary of the problems with the TBOFF approach and the following alternative recommendations:

We believe that rather than spending time trying to design complicated budget procedures of dubious merit and effectiveness, we should focus on concrete legislative steps: policies that raise more revenue, increase economic growth, slow the rate of health care spending systemwide and nationwide, reform Medicare, and bring Social Security expenditures into balance with Social Security resources. Specifically:
  • Slash farm supports.
  • Slash tax loopholes and tax expenditures.
  • Halt Medicare Advantage overpayments to private insurance companies.
  • Adopt the other recommendations of the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission.
  • Increase Medicare premiums for the well-off.
  • Institute vigorous research programs to determine the comparative cost-effectiveness of different treatments and procedures.
  • Institute vigorous research programs to determine the causes of the extraordinary nationwide variation in health-care spending.
  • Use the results of research to devise policies to restrain health care cost growth without seriously compromising quality.
  • Index entitlement benefits by a proper cost-of-living rather than a consumer price index.
  • Index tax brackets by a proper cost-of-living rather than a consumer price index.
  • Adhere to the time-tested and effective pay-as-you-go rules.

I would add that in my view it's not reasonable to talk about fiscal policy with no mention of the Defense Department budget. All too often U.S. military posture is discussed as if the budgetary costs involved aren't real, and U.S. fiscal policy is discussed as if the Defense Department isn't there. In fact, the military is by far the biggest expenditure item on the balance sheet and needs to be on the table for discussion. That doesn't mean that draconian defense spending cuts are called for, but we need to consider the fact that given the scale of the Pentagon budget even small efforts at restraint involve large sums of money.

And of course in addition to the formal budget, there's the question of ongoing policy. If I were to propose a domestic spending initiative with a bill of over $100 billion a year it would be subjected to some pretty serious scrutiny as to whether the benefits can justify that kind of cost. The continuing operation in Iraq, however, is typically discussed as if any benefits whatsoever serve to justify a massive and costly undertaking, a standard that we (rightly) don't apply in thinking about any other portion of the pie.

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Comments (17)

Good luck with that. The most puzzling thing about the US Budget is the deeply-rooted American belief that Defense Spending Doesn't Count.

To restore fiscal sanity we should also just flat out increase tax rates--primarily by increasing the income tax paid on higher incomes (including dividend income), but also extending payroll taxes to higher incomes. And I guess I can say that bluntly because I am in no way involved in actual politics.

Incidentally, down the road I would hope to cut tax rates again, and I think it is reasonable to have a long term goal of always gradually cutting tax rates, on the theory that the necessary/wise level of expenditures on government should be growing at a slightly slower rate than the overall economy. But my belief is that "fiscal sanity" implies that FIRST you have to actually reduce government spending as a percentage of the economy, and THEN you can cut tax rates accordingly. And since recently we have GROWN government spending as a percentage of the economy, rather than shrinking it as the theory requires, we should have to RAISE tax rates now as a result, and only lower them back down once we have returned government spending to the original percentage of the economy.

As someone who is far more conservative than DeLong and Yglesias, I find myself in agreement with most of the suggestions, including taking a knife to the Defense Department. Unfortunately, neither side will do much to get these enacted.

Obama, most Democrats and large amounts of Republicans voted for the latest Farm bill that McCain opposed. Many liberals have long opposed proper indexing of entitlements and higher premiums for the rich.

As someone who is far more conservative than DeLong and Yglesias, I find myself in agreement with most of the suggestions, including taking a knife to the Defense Department. Unfortunately, neither side will do much to get these enacted.

Obama, most Democrats and large amounts of Republicans voted for the latest Farm bill that McCain opposed. Many liberals have long opposed proper indexing of entitlements and higher premiums for the rich.

But note that the CBPP document goes along with a): budget deficits are very bad. It only says that in pursuing a) we should look beyond Medicaid/Medicare/Social Security.

Terminate with extreme prejudice the entire Strategic Missile Defense program. Not another nickle.

JC

Expenditures are on the income statement. Assets and liabilities are on the balance sheet.

Terminate with extreme prejudice the entire Strategic Missile Defense program. Not another nickle.

JC

"...discussed as if any benefits whatsoever serve to justify a massive and costly undertaking, a standard that we (rightly) don't apply in thinking about any other portion of the pie."

Well, there's the War On Drugs. The discussion psychology about costs and benefits is an exact match.

"I find myself in agreement with most of the suggestions, including taking a knife to the Defense Department. Unfortunately, neither side will do much to get these enacted...."

Me too. Balancing the budget would really not be all that hard if Congress was the least bit interested in doing something besides serving special interests/campaign contributors.

Social Security takes up 23 percent of projected 2008 federal expenditures, Medicare 17 percent, and defense 15.3 percent.

Social Security takes up 23 percent of projected 2008 federal expenditures, Medicare 17 percent, and defense 15.3 percent.

The war budget has always had a major impact on the American economy.

In the 19th century, when we spent almost nothing on war, immense resources were available to grow the economy and our standard of living became visibly superior to the rest of the world.

Since 1950 our standard of living has been falling- most recently, falling like a stone, while our "leaders" hope and pray we can be bamboozled into a land war in Asia.

But perhaps the saddest part of the war machine is the streak of cowardice that has our most highly educated classes screaming like chickens about an "Islamo-fascist menace" that seeks to rule the world. Or is it greed, that makes them willing to urge and commit the murder of hundreds of thousands of civilians to provide contracts for their war industries?

Whatever it is, it ain't pretty and it's not a sign of health.

once again we have the astonishing notion that cutting a program in current surplus is going to fix the budget deficit: i have no idea how people can think such a silly thing.

unless what they really mean is: keep social security taxes where they are but cut the benefits part.

at which point they should just say so....

You could easily get rid of most of the Air Force and much of the Navy. Then you could leave Germany and Japan and possibly Korea.

Of course leaving Iraq immediately would save a fortune (and be a very good idea), but that money really isn't in the budget.

And Howard is right.

Many liberals have long opposed proper indexing of entitlements and higher premiums for the rich.
Except, of course, that the amount of spending on entitlements for the undeserving wealthy is so tiny as to not make a bit of difference. Anyone interested in balancing the budget would hardly start there - someone interested in killing the entitlements, that's a different story.
Social Security takes up 23 percent of projected 2008 federal expenditures, Medicare 17 percent, and defense 15.3 percent.
Quick question for you: which of those three programs does not have a dedicated revenue stream that is currently running a surplus? That's right children, the department of killing brown people. If we took our good friend's idea to it's logical extreme and removed the two programs currently masking the size of the Republican Debt then we would be looking at the real size of the massive hole in the budget represented by the appalling overspending on shiny toys for little boys.

Trust me "Factchecker" you don't want to eliminate the piggy bank the Republicans have been raiding for the past couple of decades.

Does that 15.3 include the black budget? Just dumping no-bid cost-plus contracts would save a hundred fortunes. Closing many of our unnecessary bases would as well, or do you really think Germany or Italy are in danger of an invasion?


Comments closed July 24, 2008.

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