« The Mashup | Main | The Times We Live In » Friday Links25 Jul 2008 06:20 pm Some stuff:
Have a good weekend. Comments (23)
"Have a good weekend" = expect light posting....I'm almost out of this joint! 
I think you mean "reverse Nader."
The reverse Raider effect would be removing Mount Davis from McAfee Coliseum and returning it to its pristine stadium glory. East Bay people, do ya hear me!
I thought the reverse Rader effect had something to do with Michael Trucco's eyes.
what really kills me is the R and the N are not particularly close on a qwerty keyboard. And for a touch typist, you use opposite hands. Same fingers, but neither parallel nor mirror symmetry - up and to the left vice down and to the left.
At least the NYT article cited correctly states the Monty Hall problem. "Here’s how Monty’s deal works, in the math problem, anyway. (On the real show it was a bit messier.) He shows you three closed doors, with a car behind one and a goat behind each of the others. If you open the one with the car, you win it. You start by picking a door, but before it’s opened Monty will always open another door to reveal a goat. Then he’ll let you open either remaining door." Many people fell for the whole 'there's two left, the odds have to be 50-50' thing, when of course the real odds are 2 - 1 in favor of switching to the remaining door. If you don't follow that, click through to the link, then to the link "green M&M's and the Monty Hall Problem" in paragraph 2 of the link. The problem with the certainty expressed by so many as to the 2 - 1 odds for the remaining door, as the NYT statement implicitly recognizes in the opening parenthetical, is that Monty didn't always offer the opportunity for the additional door. He not infrequently declined to do so, whether to correct a losing streak (too boring for the audience) or blunt a winning streak (too expensive for the sponsor) or for more mundane reasons (running out of time). The answer to the 'real' Monty Hall problem is that you really don't know the answer unless you know whether Monty had a motive, and if so, what it was. In that regard, the Monty Hall problem is a bit more like solving a three dimensional rock-paper-scissors dilemma than the originators would have admitted.
if Rachel wasn't gay, i'd totally go for her. she's fantastic.
"Have a good weekend" = expect light posting....I'm almost out of this joint! Actually, it means "I'm going to drink myself into oblivion because it's just started to sink in that I'm leaving a somewhat respectable magazine for the Think Tank That Can't Think Straight." Some other stuff: - Some Democrats want to give the U.N. their own merc force, including Nutroots fave Darcy Burner. - If you want to find out how far in the tank you are for BHO, take this test. The person with the highest score will win a free trip* to the Obama Celebrity Centre in beautiful Hollywood CA. * No trip will be awarded.
God, you're tiresome, TLB.
Rachel is great. I'd love to watch her host a show. I like her more than Keith.
Rachel is great. I'd love to watch her host a show. I like her more than Keith.
Reverse radar effect? Is that where you emit no signals so that you don't see what reflects them?
Maddow's fantastic. She should have more conservative guests on her show than KO, though. She seems to be at her best when cheerily eviscerating their arguments.
what really kills me is the R and the N are not particularly close on a qwerty keyboard. Too true. But Raiders, as in the LA via Oakland football squad, sounds awfully like Nader. And as M Glutton points out: The reverse Raider effect would be removing Mount Davis from McAfee Coliseum and returning it to its pristine stadium glory. East Bay people, do ya hear me! So it all makes sense.
Maddow's good, but I'd take an hour of a potted plant over Dan Abrams's god-awful program. Ooooh, I'm gonna give this poltician a great big checkmark for that poltical "cheap shot." Like he's Washington DC's undersexed kindergarten teacher. And "who won the day" is the stupid cherry atop the sundae of failure that is that show. Christ. You know, forget Rachael Maddow. MSNBC needs to pick up Scenario: Dog v. Cat http://www.adultswim.com/video/?episodeID=8a25c39219e182770119e3aecee4000f
I prefer using the term "Monty Hall paradox", but the key to understanding it is to realize that Monty Hall can never open the door with the car. He must open one of the two doors with the goat. And he can't open your door either. Since Monty's options are actually quite limited, his opening a door does reveal substantial new information about the location of the car, and the contestant should recalculate the odds accordingly. There is a fairly exhaustive wikipedia article on the subject.
Since this thread is meaningless, let me take the opportunity to hype the return of "Terminator" on Monday, September 8. on the Fox network. Here are three of the four trailers currently being shown: Terminator : Sarah Connor Chronicles Season 2 Promo 3 Terminator : Sarah Connor Chronicles Season 2 Promo 2 Terminator Sarah Connor Chronicles season 2 promo 4 Apparently Cameron kicks her way out of the car bombed in the finale of season one - and goes straight for the Connors as a reborn Terminator. No more nice hot bitch, Johnny boy! Summer Glau says episode one of season two is a "game changer".
Since Monty's options are actually quite limited, his opening a door does reveal substantial new information about the location of the car, and the contestant should recalculate the odds accordingly. I personally feel that this is the wrong way of looking at the problem. The correct way of looking at the problem (for the constraint that he always opens a door) is simply pointing out that Monty Hall changes nothing by opening the door. The odds you chose correctly the first time were, and are 1 out of 3. Monty Hall isn't asking you if you want to switch to the other unopened door. He's effectively asking, "Do you want to stick with the door you picked, or do you want to take home the two other doors you didn't pick?" The fact that one of those two doors was opened by him is just a distraction.
Tyro a) combos after player picks
1) Player . Monty . X
....no player change: a1+b1, a1+b2 ....player change: a2+b1, a2+b2, a3+b1, a3+b2
....no player change: a2+b3, a3+b4, ....player change: a2+b4, a3+b3
(successful player no change trials) / (total trials) = 2 / 10 = 20% .probability of success w/ player change: =(successful player change trials) / (total trials) = 4 / 10 = 40%
thus you should always switch; Why did you think I was arguing otherwise?
Why did you think I was arguing otherwise? ... ..simply pointing out that Monty Hall changes nothing by opening the door...The fact that one of those two doors was opened by him is just a distraction. Because the above blockquote is not correct; opening the door changes everything, and reveals critical information (so not a distraction at all). No midpt reveal - switching makes no difference (1/3 before 1/3 after ) Midpt reveal - see previous post. But I apologize for misunderstanding your point.
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Heads in the Sand
All liberal claptrap all the time. What are you? Katie Couric?
Posted by gregor | July 25, 2008 6:44 PM