Peter Scoblic points out that the Non-Proliferation Treaty is 40 years old today and argues that it's more vital today than ever before. I agree.
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Happy Birthday, NPT
01 Jul 2008 05:20 pm
Comments (12)
Basically the treaty rewarded countries (such as China) that exploded bombs prior to 1968, and excluded countries (including India) that chose not to.
The world order has changed a lot since 1968, and we cannot pretend otherwise.
Since the original intent to disarm nuclear weapons was never seriously followed, the treaty is an anachronism.
Indeed it is. Its a shame it is being recked by the neocons and all their enablers right in front of our eyes. The current support for Israel's saber rattling (362, etc.) is absolutely disgraceful.
Check out Gordon Prather and Scott Horton's interview with him.
Part of the problem with nuclear proliferation that's hard to address with the NPT, IMHO (as well as one of the more dangerous and aspects) is the issue of the domino effect.
An arms race between two countries that have mutual assured destruction is one thing. However, what happens when country A borders country B borders country C ... and they all have border disputes and A has nukes. Well, then B gets nukes, prompting C to get nukes and so on. This is especially a problem if neither B,C,etc. are part of the mutual assured destruction competition or particularly aligned to either party in that competition.
Thus, China gets nukes because "if Russia nukes us, why would the US respond on our behalf?". Similarly India gets nukes because of China, Pakistan gets nukes because of India ... and Iran probably ain't just thinking of Israel in terms of getting nukes.
The other issue is that nukes can be a deterant to all out conventional war. Israel gets attacked a lot, but you don't see a repeat of the Yom Kippur war or the 6 Day War nowadays, now do you?
So long as countries feel that they are not under an existing nuclear umbrella (or that there will be no consequences should they get nuked or even attacked conventionally -- given how Israel still gets blamed for when it is attacked, do you think that if Arab nations decide to launch an all out war against Israel, the UN or some other umbrella organization will act on Israel's behalf?), they will make their own umbrellas ... and then the dominoes start falling.
And Article VI...the part of the NPT that requires the nuclear weapons states to undertake good faith negotiations on disarmament...is the most crucial and most ignored aspect of the treaty.
Laudible as it is that the NPT is still in place, it was never meant to remain in place for this long. A stepping stone rather than a status quo, the only stable equilibrium here is for all states to get nukes or for the ones that have them to give them up. The NPT was supposed to block off one of those outcomes while speeding along the other. But instead it's become a stand off.
So how about we start taking a more active role in avoiding armegeddon?
But according to Mitt Romney the NPT is simply another "liberal issue". Please make him the VP!!!!
Bush has massively weakened the NPT by his actions against Iran, which is a signatory.
Previous Presidents going back to Nixon weakened the NPT by not forcing Israel to be a signatory and preventing Israel from acquiring nuclear weapons. India was also a mistake which begat Pakistan's nukes.
Today, the only way to revitalize the NPT is for the UN - with US and EU support - to force Israel to disarm its nuclear arsenal completely and verifiably.
If the US did that, and simultaneously told Iran if would give Iran security guarantees against regime change by the US and attack by Israel, stop supporting anti-Iran terrorist groups on Iranian soil (in exchange for Iran giving up support of Hamas and Hizballah), and offer support to Iran's nuclear energy program, as long as Iran allowed massively intrusive inspections of its nuclear energy program, Iran would turn on a dime and agree to all of that.
Subsequently, the US could re-open negotiations with Russia and China to reduce nuclear stockpiles, and also all three nations could begin requesting India and Pakistan to follow suit. That would be a bit harder since Pakistan is at a disadvantage against India in conventional military terms. But it would be worth a try.
None of this is going to happen, however. Instead, Bush and/or Israel is going to bomb Iran, India and Pakistan will continue to make nukes, and sooner or later somebody will steal an Israeli nuke and make Tel Aviv glow in the dark after which Israel will nuke most of the nations around it and result in Israel being destroyed by the rest of the world.
All of which is Nature's way of eliminating the stupid.
The NPT is an antiquated, retrograde, discriminatory treaty that is ultimately unworkable in no small part because the official nuclear powers have given up all pretense of eliminating their own nuclear arsenals. In tandem with the makeup of the UN Security Council, its anomalous nature is becoming more glaring every passing year.
I thought this was going to be a post on National Pipe Thread, another outstanding contribution to the world as we know it.
Any country should be allowed to produce nuclear weapons, but first it should be required to get a license from a specially constituted international body. The license is good for fifteen years. At the end of the period, the country would have to reapply for a new license, and would have to submit to inspections to see if it was following the various conditions to be allowed to have nukes.
That leaves the question of what to do with nuclear powers that lose their licenses, or powers so strong that they would be able to get away with violating the conditions. But it would still be an improvement over the "no one gets nukes but us" policy currently in place.
How the US weakened the NPT.
Scott Horton Interviews Gordon Prather
June 28th, 2008
http://antiwar.com/radio/2008/06/28/gordon-prather-6/
Dr. Gordon Prather, Antiwar.com’s in-house nuclear physicist, discusses the chaos of the Bush regime’s policies against the “Axis of Evil” and global non-proliferation regime, from trying to frame North Korea with the same bogus intel as they used on Iraq to trying to connect Iran and North Korea with the Israeli-bombed facility in Syria, the U.S.’s nuclear deals with India, how A.Q. Kahn’s stolen intel scheme was falsely claimed by George Tenet to be a CIA success story, the vague credentials of nuke “expert” David Albright Ph.D and how the Bush team has put us in far more danger from nuclear proliferation.
MP3 here: (52:09)
http://dissentradio.com/radio/08_06_26_prather.mp3
Physicist James Gordon Prather has served as a policy implementing official for national security-related technical matters in the Federal Energy Agency, the Energy Research and Development Administration, the Department of Energy, the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Department of the Army. Dr. Prather also served as legislative assistant for national security affairs to U.S. Sen. Henry Bellmon, R-Okla. – ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee and member of the Senate Energy Committee and Appropriations Committee. Dr. Prather had earlier worked as a nuclear weapons physicist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California and Sandia National Laboratory in New Mexico.
Comments closed July 15, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
"Vital" as in "badly needed" or "vital" as in "thriving"? Because I think you're correct only in the former sense.
Posted by Ryan | July 1, 2008 5:43 PM