I Make My Own Luck

Dan Balz reviews Obama's trip to Iraq: "But the curious turn of events made for an unexpected opening act for the Democrat's week-long tour of seven countries, demonstrating anew the combination of agility and good fortune that has marked his campaign."

There's no denying that good fortune played a role here, but one does need to consider the possibility that Obama got "lucky" here because he and his team, unlike John McCain and his team, aren't driven by hubris and neo-imperial fantasies. Maliki doesn't like the McCain plan for open-ended occupation because it's not politically tenable in Iraq. And one reason Obama and other progressives have long opposed open-ended occupation is precisely because we realized that it's not politically tenable in Iraq. Obama got "lucky" with the timing (or, rather, Maliki seems to have decided to help him out) but in an important sense what carried the day here was that Obama's policy is sensitive to realities in Iraq in a way that McCain's isn't.

Comments

If you read Lizza's piece in The New Yorker, you quickly appreciate that Obama has a knack for being in the right place at the right time. His sense of political timing is exceptional.

That's good for us, because at this moment in history, there's little doubt that the US needs a Barack Obama presidency.

Posted by Jake | July 22, 2008 10:35 AM

Thank you, MY. I cannot believe WaPo of late. They should just rename themselves the Washington Sun and be done with it.

This post makes me a little sad that we won't be getting this sort of pushback through the Atlantic anymore.

Posted by SomeCallMeTim | July 22, 2008 10:39 AM

Obama got "lucky" with the timing (or, rather, Maliki seems to have decided to help him out) but in an important sense what carried the day here was that Obama's policy is sensitive to realities in Iraq in a way that McCain's isn't.

like, duh. Why is it that MY is the only pundit out there who has a brain? seriously.

"well what do you know, Obama certainly lucked out in that Maliki supported his plan over McCain's." You don't have to The Amazing Kreskin to figure out that the Iraqi's want us out.

Posted by nattyb | July 22, 2008 10:41 AM

I'm sort of wondering when Obama's going to hammer McCain over the silly notion that "the same strategy that succeeded in Iraq can succeed in Afghanistan". That's about as large a target as McCain can paint on his back.

Posted by Jake | July 22, 2008 10:46 AM

As Branch Rickey once said, "luck is the residue of design."

Posted by CJColucci | July 22, 2008 10:48 AM

It should be pointed out that here in Ohio and other midwest battleground states this is all probably good for McCain. That a muslim-y guy with a muslim-y name agrees with Obama on something will only confirm one or both of the following pre-conceived narratives: that McCain is even more awesome because he's a good ol' maverick who don't care what those creepy muslims think; that Maliki likes Obama because Obama is a muslim.

The xenophobic blue collar vote can be strikingly immune to conventional wisdom. Or, just wisdom.

Posted by Brent | July 22, 2008 10:51 AM

What a dishonest article.

What Obama is doing is proving to America that he's capable of and fully prepared to be president.

It's pretty naive to think that Maliki's endorsement is coincidental.

I think Obama just ended the Iraq War.

Posted by Luke | July 22, 2008 10:53 AM

For about three years, every actual news story I've read about Maliki and the Iraqi leadership indicates that they want us OUT as quickly as can be managed. The only people who don't seem to have picked up on this are the Beltway crowd. Apparently the opinions of brown-skinned foreigners do not clearly register with that crowd.

Posted by Berken | July 22, 2008 10:56 AM

This is an ongoing Balz narrative. He's a bit obsessed with Obama's "charmed life" and "luck." Whenever anything happens that remotely fits into that narrative, he uses it.

Posted by evie | July 22, 2008 10:59 AM

Speaking of luck, the title of this post isn't very lucky, if you've seen Dark Knight. All I can say is, those Republicans better quit smearing Michelle.

Posted by Ted | July 22, 2008 11:03 AM

Yep, it is amazing how mentally-flexible and pragmatic people end up being "lucky" so often.

Posted by DTM | July 22, 2008 11:07 AM

In my experience, there's no such thing as luck.

Posted by Aleks | July 22, 2008 11:07 AM

Brent,

I'm afraid that you are right. The daily Rasmussen tracking poll shows he and McCain tied. So there's no reason to be gloating. Lets wait and see what will happen next. Especially now that Allawi will be testifying in Congress.

Posted by Micheline | July 22, 2008 11:11 AM

When I read the Balz article I had to recall the piece not too long about the different gambling styles of the two. McCain the impulsive, high-stakes craps player; O'Bama the calculating, incremental poker player.

With this trip Barrack has called and raised. So far John has responded by rattling the dice.

Posted by JohnMcC | July 22, 2008 11:21 AM

Maliki doesn't like the McCain plan for open-ended occupation because it's not politically tenable in Iraq.

Of course he doesn't, and neither does the majority of Iraqi citizens. McCain refuses to give a list of "conditions on the ground" that will actually precipitate a withdrawal, he just keeps parroting that catch-phrase. All he is willing to provide is "trust me" which, after 8 long years of GOP failure of leadership and an avalanche of McCain's own flip-flops and poor judgments, ain't gonna' cut it.

Now we have this quote in the NY Sun, and posted over at Sullivan's blog:

"John McCain has said he will only support a withdrawal based on conditions on the ground. It is our belief that the Iraqi leaders share that view. The disposition of a sovereign, democratically elected government is one of the conditions that will be taken into account," -- McCain spokesman Michael Goldfarb, sounding shades of rhetoric perilously close to imperialism.

"Disposition" of the government? That's pretty much a confession that McCain won't go until Iraq has a government he approves of. So much for sovereignty. McCain will allow them to have sovereignty if, and only if, it's of a brand he's approved. Endless occupation anyone?

Posted by LFC | July 22, 2008 11:28 AM

You know, Obama's really been lucky all along. If he'd drawn the short straw instead of Hillary in 2002 and had to endorse the war from the beginning, she'd be the nominee.

Posted by Aleks | July 22, 2008 11:31 AM

One reason that Obama is "lucky" is that he is not stuck in Vietnam thinking. McCain and Bush somehow think that our puppet government in Iraq is the wholly owned creature of the US government, like the government of South Vietnam was. Hence, they are always surprised if the Iraqi government does something independent. Truth is, the Iraqi government has other sources of support, including Iran, Iraq's largest neighbor and ally. There is no way that a even slightly democratic government in Iraq is not going to tilt toward Iran. That government and Iran will have to deal with the Sunni and Kurdish minorities in Iraq. They wanted the US in while the US army fought the Sunni insurgency, but now, when the US military is traiing and equipping Sunni forces, they would like us out. It doesn't seem that McCain and Bush get any of this -- they propose that we stay as long as possible, fighting anyone who wants to fight us, and fighting alongside anyone who wants our equipment, logistical support and training.

Posted by tom in ma | July 22, 2008 11:32 AM

Ahhhhh...thank you for this post (and the comments). At least I know I'm not the only one thinking like this.

I like Obama. But there's no particular genius behind his Iraq/Afghanistan strategy. Mostly he's just acknowledging reality. And it turns out that world leaders are excited to work with someone who deals with the world as it is, not with some made-up "we create our own reality" world.

To me, the amazed response from the WaPo and various DC insiders just confirms how out of touch with reality they've been for the last seven years.

Though I do think Obama was lucky to sink that 3-pointer on the first try.

Posted by hubcap | July 22, 2008 11:39 AM

Though I do think Obama was lucky to sink that 3-pointer on the first try.

Posted by hubcap | July 22, 2008 11:39 AM

He's been practicing that shot since Hillary conceded.

Posted by Aleks | July 22, 2008 11:47 AM

He's been practicing that shot since Hillary conceded.

Those visits to the gym last week had a purpose.

Posted by pseudonymous in nc | July 22, 2008 12:03 PM

Brent,

I'm afraid that you are right. The daily Rasmussen tracking poll shows he and McCain tied. So there's no reason to be gloating. Lets wait and see what will happen next. Especially now that Allawi will be testifying in Congress.

Posted by Micheline | July 22, 2008 11:11 AM
*************************************************

um, well Gallup has Obama at +6 and the latest ohio polling has him at +8...so stop cherry picking your polls, micheline.

http://www.gallup.com/

Posted by jack | July 22, 2008 12:42 PM

"Chance favors the prepared mind."

-Louis Pasteur

Posted by Hardrada | July 22, 2008 1:08 PM

"Chance favors the prepared mind."

-Louis Pasteur

Posted by Hardrada | July 22, 2008 1:09 PM

One reason that Obama is "lucky" is that he is not stuck in Vietnam thinking.

I think that's one key to his generational appeal. Vietnam was not part of my formative experience; I don't need to keep fighting it to make it come out right this time--I can (metaphorically speaking) fight a whole new war with new realities. As hubcap says, how excited the rest of the world is at the prospect of a US president who is reality-based.

(How great is it that, at forty, I apparently count as a young whippersnapper who should get off the punditocracy's lawn?)

Posted by Deborah | July 22, 2008 1:21 PM

>one does need to consider the possibility that Obama got "lucky" here

One does need to consider the possibility that Obama is working hard and making wise decisions.
Stop enabling redefeaticans.

Posted by bartkid | July 22, 2008 1:37 PM

One GOP refrain about the Clinton years was that Bill was lucky; the economy hummed along, there were no global crises etc. etc. The WP apparently is claiming that Obama is lucky now. Luck has something to do with it. But the fact is that many of these global problems aren't insurmountable if you just stop making them worse. Good leaders realize that and take advantage of it.

Posted by rk | July 22, 2008 2:26 PM

"I think that's one key to his generational appeal. Vietnam was not part of my formative experience; I don't need to keep fighting it to make it come out right this time--I can (metaphorically speaking) fight a whole new war with new realities. As hubcap says, how excited the rest of the world is at the prospect of a US president who is reality-based."

My bet is that Maliki felt he could endorse Obama's plan b/c Obama has a good chance of being the next President. Success breeds success.

Saw Dark Knight last night. How freakin' good was that?

Perhaps I'm naive, but there's a scene at the trustfund scumbag party Bruce Wayne throws for DA Harvey Dent, where Wayne gives a nice little speech/toast about how Dent's giving everyone optimism. Made me think of the Obama campaign.

And then Wayne drags Dent into the "panic room" and leaves the trustfunders outside? Haha.

Posted by Peter K | July 22, 2008 3:46 PM

Iglesias you are over rated.

Posted by hayik | July 22, 2008 5:24 PM