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Paging Paul Krugman

10 Jul 2008 09:09 am

AirTran got ahold of my email address somehow or other over the years and sends me occasional doses of spam. Normally, it's to promote some deal or something. But now they're giving me rants against the evils of oil speculators:

Speculators buy up large amounts of oil and then sell it to each other again and again. A barrel of oil may trade 20-plus times before it is delivered and used; the price goes up with each trade and consumers pick up the final tab. Some market experts estimate that current prices reflect as much as $30 to $60 per barrel in unnecessary speculative costs.

Over seventy years ago, Congress established regulations to control excessive, largely unchecked market speculation and manipulation. However, over the past two decades, these regulatory limits have been weakened or removed. We believe that restoring and enforcing these limits, along with several other modest measures, will provide more disclosure, transparency and sound market oversight. Together, these reforms will help cool the over-heated oil market and permit the economy to prosper.

I've found the arguments of Paul Krugman and other skeptics of the "blame the speculators" story pretty convincing. But if I were an airline, I would badly want it to be true.

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Comments (23)

More precisely, you would want the government to do something to reduce the price of your fuel. Whether or not the nominal justification for those efforts was true would be beside the point.

Some market experts estimate that current prices reflect as much as $30 to $60 per barrel in unnecessary speculative costs.

Behold, the efficiency of the free market. Government couldn't do this nearly as well. But you dhimmicrats don't understand that, which is why no one votes for you ... EVER.

Or something.
.

b.t.w.. Matt, it looks like you forgot to pay your bill for matthewyglesias.com.

From what I've been hearing the price of oil is far higher than fundamentals can account for. We know speculation can drive up the price of any asset class- stocks, houses, tulips. It would be odd if oil was immune from the effects of speculation. Then again, Krugman is such an asshole that I might be willing to take of the opposite position from whatever he's proposing.

You gotta wonder if the air travel system is worth fixing at this point. It may very well become something for rich people only in the future. As it stands today, its kind of like a dumbed down version of steerage. Even before oil prices started reflecting reality air travel sucked. To keep the system solvent will require massive government investment. Money that could be spent more wisely elsewhere. If it takes the average Joe a while longer to cross the country so be it. That's life.

cleek:
He has joined Bill Kristol in that club.

This speculation blaming is such nonsense. It's not like actual users of oil can't purchase the oil before these mythical evil speculators get a hold of it, or at some point before it is traded two dozen times. It seems like this is even a misrepresentation of what speculators do, which is speculate on the FUTURE price of a commodity. As Krugman has demonstrated over and over, this simply isn't driving the price of oil significantly, as the future price is LAGGING behind and not out in front of the increases we have seen. No one is storing huge quantities of oil in underground vats to sell in the future, either. It is getting used as it is produced.


From what I've been hearing the price of oil is far higher than fundamentals can account for.

Statements like this betray a certain lack of understanding of what the 'fundamentals' really mean. Sure, if you think there is a bubble, this is what you believe. But if we could always figure out the 'fundamental' value of any asset, investment would be a lot easier.

I like MY's point, though. You can just see all the lackeys falling over each other to reassure their CEO that their operating model is still valid.

What interesting to me is that OPEC and the Saudis are blaming speculation also. It's not just American politicians.

Looks like a coordinated campaign by the airline industry--I got one from Delta last night.

Somebody wants a bailout. Amazing how "market forces" are so important when it comes to screwing over passengers and strikebreaking their employees, but god forbid anyone refuse them the government's protection when their bottom line is threatened.

All that said, there is something screwy going on with oil prices--the dying dollar explains the price changes over $110, but is it really clear that the spike to $110 is driven entirely by supply and demand? Because that's an awfully fast spike when nothing spectacular happened in the past year on both the suppyand demand sides.

What interesting to me is that OPEC and the Saudis are blaming speculation also.

Well, sure they are... in between claiming that they're going to raise production, or they're at least thinking about it really hard, then not actually doing it, then claiming that the world crude market is "adequately supplied." It's a game designed to conceal the fact that the production of their only significant resource has been flat since 2005.

It's a game designed to conceal the fact that the production of their only significant resource has been flat since 2005.

Are production levels that hard to determine .... I mean if you know they've been flat, why do the Saudis believe they can fool everyone els ... if this is the case?

It's a game designed to conceal the fact that the production of their only significant resource has been flat since 2005.

Are production levels that hard to determine .... I mean if you know they've been flat, why do the Saudis believe they can fool everyone else ... if this is the case?

Are production levels that hard to determine .... I mean if you know they've been flat, why do the Saudis believe they can fool everyone else ... if this is the case?

They can fool everybody because Saudi Arabia is a closed country. International inspectors are given the beauty tour and do most of their analysis using Google Earth. Basically the Saudis are saying, "everything's fine here! More Patriot missiles, please!" And there isn't a damn thing we can do about it. You don't piss off your crack dealer.

Looks like a coordinated campaign by the airline industry--I got one from Delta last night.

It's my understanding that the discount airlines (Southwest, JetBlue, et al) have been able to maintain low fares because they hold kerosone options bought earlier in the decade when the price of oil was still low. Perhaps they are the "speculators" profiting from the removal of these "regulatory limits" referred to here.

All that said, there is something screwy going on with oil prices--the dying dollar explains the price changes over $110, but is it really clear that the spike to $110 is driven entirely by supply and demand? Because that's an awfully fast spike when nothing spectacular happened in the past year on both the suppyand demand sides.

Posted by anon | July 10, 2008 10:21 AM

It's perfectly understandable in the case of something with little flexibility to increase supply quickly in response to an increase in demand. If we are near full consumption of suppy, the increase in price resulting from increased demand increases the higher demand gets. You can think of the shape of the price vs demand curve as kind of a curved backwards L, or just similar in shape to an exponential function.

RoboticGhost, it isn't so much that the Saudis can fool everyone as everyone wants to be fooled. The information can be found if one looks for it. For example, I found an article at an Arab business news site which stated quite bluntly that Saudi crude production was expected to decline by 6% during 2007-2008. This was the sixth result when I merely searched for the topic on Google.

And there hasn't exactly been a blackout of this news in the western business media either. I've seen it reported sporadically on CNN, etc. Why this hasn't been front-page news, well, I leave it to you to guess why the corporate news outlets don't want to tell the consuming public that the party's over...

Those who want to see arguments which find flaws in Paul Krugman's logic, need to look at the paper by Stevans and Sessions:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1154686

The other is the report by Daniel Dicker in RealMoney.com -

http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/oil/10423562.html

One almost feels that there is conspiracy 'not to talk' about speculation in oil prices.

The issue is not that the entire price increase is due to speculation. Fundamentals are there, but to deny any component in price increase due to speculation borders on irresponsibility.

What you need is any State Regulatory authority of it's worth is capable of removing such a blatant and exploitative gauging - to the extent it happens. Otherwise it is clear failure of political power to run a country.

Those who want to see arguments which find flaws in Paul Krugman's logic, need to look at the paper by Stevans and Sessions:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1154686

The other is the report by Daniel Dicker in RealMoney.com -

http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/oil/10423562.html

One almost feels that there is conspiracy 'not to talk' about speculation in oil prices.

The issue is not that the entire price increase is due to speculation. Fundamentals are there, but to deny any component in price increase due to speculation borders on irresponsibility.

What you need is any State Regulatory authority of it's worth is capable of removing such a blatant and exploitative gauging - to the extent it happens. Otherwise it is clear failure of political power to run a country.

Lots of oil fields are following the US into easily measured declines. Oil production worldwide has fluttered since 2005, but probably we've long passed the point where new discoveries are replacing what's pumped. If we are past peak -- and approximately 4 people in the world can say for sure -- the prices we're paying at the pump don't have a lot of speculation "fat" in them.


http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/t11d.xls

In all fairness, speculation has driven prices like this several times in the past, most notably in the seventies oil embargo. Speculation is a problem. I got the same email today and I have to say, their claims of 30-60 bucks a day are pretty fair. That would still leave us, if removed, at about 80 bucks a barrel. Much more in line with the demand/supply/value of dollar story. If you havent read it, I strongly recommend a book called 'The Prize'. It offers a fascinating history of the oil industry and the political ramifications petroleum has had over the last century.

Re: Robotic Ghost "Is the air travel system worth fixing?"

Of course it is. It's way too late to put that genie back in the bottle. As an expat American I can see that the globalization of business and families has changed the world and there are millions of us who rely on a relatively affordable air industry to make a living and maintain contact with loved ones.

You gotta wonder if the air travel system is worth fixing at this point. It may very well become something for rich people only in the future.

If "may very well" means "is very unlikely to," then yes, exactly right.

As it stands today, its kind of like a dumbed down version of steerage. Even before oil prices started reflecting reality air travel sucked.

You are free to take the bus or (shudder!) Amtrak instead. I suspect the vast majority of people will not be joining you.


Comments closed July 24, 2008.

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