Skepticism

Robert Pear runs down the evidence that there's no way on earth John McCain is going to balance the budget by 2013 consistent with the priorities he's outlined. To put a hard number on it, according to the CBO if we extend the Bush tax cuts (as McCain has proposed) then even ignoring McCain's proposals to increase defense spending, to further cut taxes, and to continue the war in Iraq, we'll have a deficit of $443 billion.

Obviously, there's uncertainty associated with that projection, but that's the ballpark. That would mean something like an 80 percent reduction in Medicare spending.

Comments

Can't the same calculation be made against Obama's spending and tax promises, albeit on a somewhat different scale.

Posted by Scott Ferguson | July 8, 2008 7:30 AM

Forget that! I was just reading at TPM that the McCain camp released this economic proposal with NO FIGURES. No numbers in an economic plan?

Wow.

I can not imagine the reams of ink spilled calling Obama out as a vacuous idealist if he had even contemplated the idea. He's already getting called out as a flip-flopper for telling the Military Times he thinks, given the current situation, we can begin withdrawal from Iraq upon his inauguration in consultation with all the parties on the ground unless some catastrophe ensues upon which point he'd have to reassess.

I really really hate the press sometimes.

Posted by Rhoda | July 8, 2008 7:44 AM

I love this line, "On the other hand, history shows the deficit sometimes shrinks faster than experts expect."

More of that magical thinking. . .

Posted by AndyB | July 8, 2008 7:49 AM

What's up with this: "And Mr. Bush cut the deficit in half faster than he or many fiscal experts had predicted."?

Bush has cut the deficit in half? How come I haven't heard about this?

Does anybody have a link for this, please? I can only find articles with predictions, which this article claims were too pessimistic.

Thanks

Posted by skiddie | July 8, 2008 7:56 AM

"Bush has cut the deficit in half? How come I haven't heard about this?"

Uh, because it isn't, you know, true?

Even more of a lie when we acknowledge that the costs of the US military occupation of Iraq are not included in the calculation.

Posted by Joel | July 8, 2008 8:05 AM

Accounting has a well-known liberal bias....

Posted by Just Dropping By | July 8, 2008 8:48 AM

"That would mean something like an 80 percent reduction in Medicare spending."

I guess it will be much easier to balance the budget if 8 in 10 folks who depend on this program have to "suck it up and deal with it". Imagine what he could do if he had his way with Social Security and Medicade. Magic Ponies for everyone!

Posted by Leaking Geek | July 8, 2008 8:57 AM

Re Bush halved the deficit

Maybe I missed something here but I seem to recall that when Bush entered office, there was a budget surplus, bequeathed to him by his predecessor, which Dubya turned into a big deficit with his tax cuts for the rich.

Posted by SLC | July 8, 2008 9:45 AM

I seem to recall that when Bush entered office, there was a budget surplus, bequeathed to him by his predecessor, which Dubya turned into a big deficit with his tax cuts for the rich.

He then predicted incredibly huge deficits, and when the actual deficits turned out to be merely huge, rather than incredibly huge, he took credit for reducing them.

Posted by rea | July 8, 2008 11:47 AM

I seem to recall that when Bush entered office, there was a budget surplus, bequeathed to him by his predecessor, which Dubya turned into a big deficit with his tax cuts for the rich.

He then predicted incredibly huge deficits...

Ah. That's it. I thought there must have been some definition of 'deficit reduction' that I didn't know. It turns out I was looking in the wrong dictionary. I thought it would be in an Economics textbook; instead it's in the Pravda on the Hudson's Stylebook.

Posted by skiddie | July 8, 2008 1:25 PM

Just a gentle reminder for those suggesting that we elminiate Social Security - it is still in surplus right now. Unless you are simply eliminating the payout, eliminating Social Security makes "100 years in Iraq" McCain's budget problems even worse!

Posted by Not As Stupid As Will Allen | July 8, 2008 1:41 PM

I keep telling you people, none of this matters.

McCain can do no wrong. Like I said, he could claim to be able to levitate, and the MSM will pass it right on to their readers and listeners with no comment.

McCain is THE anointed next President. And the powers that be will do whatever is necessary to make sure Obama doesn't win.

Obama better have a wrap-around kevlar vest - so he doesn't get shot in the side like Reagan - and be wearing a kevlar cap on all of his campaign stops because the people in control of this country just might assassinate his ass like they did Martin Luther King.

Oh, right, you guys think that James Earl Ray did that.

Never mind.

I'm only partly joking up above. McCain really is going to be President, no matter how fucked up he is.

Posted by Richard Steven Hack | July 8, 2008 8:17 PM