It seems that the rising number of people who don't own landlines is having only a very tiny impact on political polling. But this looks like something that may be a real problem in 2012 or 2016.
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The Cell Skew
19 Jul 2008 10:03 am
Comments (11)
It could still most certainly provide the margin of victory in a close state.
Is that necessarily the right way to interpret this data? The suggestion I've seen is that including cellphone-only people in polling ought to make roughly a 2 point swing in favor of Obama, and this poll shows... a 2-3 point swing in favor of Obama when cells are included.
This misses how incredibly low polling response rates already are, even just limited to people with landlines. When i was in college 10 years ago my textbook on this stuff lamented that well more than 95% of people surveyed by phone do not answer, and answerers tend to be clustered in demographically unusual groups--the elderly and stay-at-home mothers without fear of debt collectors, mainly. The trend at the time was constantly downward, and I can't imagine that's changed. polling is voodoo, which is why i'm never surprised by how incredibly variable and unreliable polling results can be.
"[T]iny"??? One or two percent in a presidentily election is not necessarily "tiny." Just ask Al Gore.
The number of people who don't own LANDMINES?
WTF? Did the NRA take over the government when I wasn't watching?
The number of people who don't own LANDMINES?
WTF? Did the NRA take over the government when I wasn't watching?
I recommend avoiding or minimizing cell phone usage and investing in a reliable land-line phone: http://lowtechtimes.com/2007/12/20/old-fashioned-telephone/
At every major election, overly optimistic Democrats and overly pessimistic Republicans go into November heralding an overwhelming mass of liberal votes that will come from landline-less young people.
If the pollsters are any good, they can control for this effect and report the numbers accordingly. If they can't do that, they probably aren't very good at controlling for anything else and you should ignore their numbers. But they probably aren't systematically underestimating the Democrats' chances every single time.
"I recommend avoiding or minimizing cell phone usage and investing in a reliable land-line phone: "
I can see why in certain circumstances the security of a land line would make sense, but for an city-dweller like me there's no point whatsoever. I get "free" calls out the wazoo on my mobile contract and even when I had a landline I never used it. If there's an absolute emergency I'll just use the payphone down the street.
Comments closed August 02, 2008.
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Heads in the Sand
I guess it depends on your definition of a "real problem" but I won't be losing any sleep over this one.
Posted by Russell | July 19, 2008 10:52 AM