The SOFA Opportunity

Dr. Irak notes that the continued wrangling over SOFA/SFA issues in Iraq is actually a huge opportunity for the United States to get our Iraq policy sorted out. In particular, with Iraq hinting that they may want the agreement to include a timeline for withdrawal, but also indicating that they would like continued military support of some kind from the United States, the administration is in a position where it "can put a time horizon into the pact and condition the residual support the Iraqi government dearly wants on continued political progress to lock-in recent security gains."

A deal of that sort would serve American interests fairly well and also have the odd consequence of largely defusing the Iraq issue in the presidential campaign. But I see no indication that Bush or McCain are prepared to settle for anything less than open-ended war for open-ended occupation with all kinds of sovereign-infringing immunities for foreign troops and no real dates whatsoever.

Comments

What would happen if McCain did go for this? Would largely defusing the Iraq issue be a game changer in the election?

Posted by Ben | July 7, 2008 9:43 AM

'Billy Witch Doctor Dot Com. One convenient locations...in Africa.'

Posted by sofa king | July 7, 2008 10:37 AM

Nutbag ideology aside, there's no reason anyone should expect that Bush, McCain, and just about anybody else in a position to actually make decisions wouldn't "...settle for anything less than open-ended war for open-ended occupation."

In the grown-up world, where words mean what they say, the "occupation" ended when Iraq approved a constitution and elected a government by the most open and democratic process in Arab history; and "the war" ended a little before that. What's left after the terrorist spasm largely conducted by non-Iraqis is a power struggle over the details, soon to be resolved.

Posted by robert powell | July 7, 2008 12:23 PM

Mr Powell - In the grownup world, words mean whatever the propagandists desire that you take them to mean.

What's left in democratic, constitutional Iraq: a a country of which the occupier hass demanded absolute immunity from its laws, complete control of its skies, the ability to arrest and detain its citizens without notification of their rulers and carte blanche to conduct military operations within its boarders.

If that is sovereignty...

Posted by Scott Ferguson | July 7, 2008 1:00 PM

Worse, it wants carte blanche to attack Iraq's friendliest neighbor from Iraq soil.

That's a deal killer as long as the Iraqi government is being heavily influenced by said neighbor.

Powell: "the terrorist spasm largely conducted by non-Iraqis is a power struggle over the details, soon to be resolved."

Yeah, to be resolved by the nationalists who will sweep Maliki aside, drop the SOFA agreement and kick the US out no matter what Bush, McCain or Obama thinks.

Posted by Richard Steven Hack | July 7, 2008 10:10 PM

Like Germany and Japan, Iraq lost its sovereignty totally as a result of starting and losing wars of aggression. Like the others, its sovereignty is being returned in stages as the fighting dies down and the society shattered by decades of totalitarian misrule is restored. It's safe to assume that going forward we won't have much if any different arrangements with Iraq than we do currently with Okinawa, South Korea, etc.

Posted by robert powell | July 8, 2008 3:10 AM

The nationalists will be put paid to that notion when they sweep into power next year in the provincial and parliamentary elections.

The US will get kicked out and there will be no SOFA. The Iraqis aren't concerned about being invaded by anybody, including Iran. So they don't need ANY US forces in their country for ANY reason. And since they are friends of Iran, they will also realize that Iran wants the US out of Iraq. But that is an ancillary issue - the primary reason for kicking the US out is that the US is an occupying power that has too much control of the Iraqi government. And once the Iraqi government - that is, one without Maliki - has some slight legitimacy, they won't accept that.

It's over. The US will be out of Iraq within two years - or three months if Bush attacks Iran.

Posted by Richard Steven Hack | July 8, 2008 4:12 AM