Must-See Fake TV

Francis Fukuyama, ex-neocon, bloggingheadses with Robert Kagan, the wiliest and best-respected of the neos.

I note, for the record, that Kagan's current kick about the need to revive great power conflict is orders of magnitude more wrongheaded and dangerous than the post-9/11 "let's invade Iraq" fad was. My friend DM likes to say that the one good thing about Iraq is that it distracted the neocons from their even crazier war with China schemes, but now those schemes are making a bit of a comeback.

Comments

A land war in Asia? What could possibly go wrong with that?

Posted by Shawn | August 1, 2008 1:32 PM

Also, never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!

Posted by drjimcooper | August 1, 2008 2:15 PM

i've always kind of assumed that the neocons recent focus on Iraq wasn't a distraction from their China obsession, but, preparation for the (inevitable, in their view) coming showdown.

i mean, it's not like we actually need to invade countries for oil - we could just buy it.

unless, of course, there's a grand global war that means the oil has to be physically secured for us to win.

Posted by josh bivens | August 1, 2008 2:16 PM

According to this Robert Kagan (and William Kristol) article, we lost already. After apologizing during the aircrew hostage crisis (remember that kids!), they said we had to renew the surveillance flights without course deviation, sell AEGIS systems to Taiwan, deny China the Olympics and increase our military presence in the region.

What I'd like to ask Kagan right now is, why am I not typing this in Mandarin?

Posted by Njorl | August 1, 2008 2:23 PM

"the one good thing about Iraq is that it distracted the neocons from their even crazier war with China schemes, but now those schemes are making a bit of a comeback"

Two points, Matt:

First, neocon schemes are indestructible, by logic, popular disdain, or even failures of fulfillment (really, it's the exception rather than the rule that people with a track record in the neighborhood of ranting mental patients who live under bridges would have much substantial political influence in any coherent political system, so the "we tried your crazy-ass idea and it sucked, so shut up" argument doesn't get a lot of use).

Second, the neocons would probably argue that the Iraq war (however it goes), would be a necessary prerequisite for the eventual war with China (maybe practice, maybe a trick of some sort). I bet they've even got some theory to justify our imprisonment of Uighurs at Guantanamo with all this, since it involves *both* Muslims *and* China.

Posted by Chris | August 1, 2008 3:02 PM

Does Kagan straight up loathe Fukuyama or what? Nothing a true believer hates more than an apostate.

Posted by Led | August 1, 2008 3:42 PM

Robert Kagan is the best-respected neocon? How was this ever a powerful political ideology, again?

Posted by Jack | August 1, 2008 5:17 PM

You can tell that Kagan knows he's talking to someone who's smarter than he is.

I don't know that Kagan is talking about when he says rapid economic development in a dictatorship defies the "law of gravity". Dirigisme and closed political systems are standard in late developers. He doesn't seem very familiar with political economy and comparative politics.

Posted by Colatina | August 1, 2008 6:18 PM

There's no interest group backing for a war with China and massive interest group - business-related - opposition to any such thing. So while those who rant about Arabs sometimes also do some ranting about China, they can't have their war in Asia.

Posted by otto | August 1, 2008 7:04 PM

There's no interest group backing for a war with China and massive interest group - business-related - opposition to any such thing. So while those who rant about Arabs sometimes also do some ranting about China, they can't have their war in Asia.

Posted by otto | August 1, 2008 7:05 PM

That was a frustrating exchange to watch. Doesn't it seem that Kagan debating style embodies his underlying contention about 'human nature' being aggresive? He struck me as an aggressive animal in the way he debated, as he tries to roll over Fukayama's more measued comments.

Posted by Seth | August 1, 2008 8:53 PM

That was a frustrating exchange to watch. Doesn't it seem that Kagan debating style embodies his underlying contention about 'human nature' being aggresive? He struck me as an aggressive animal in the way he debated, as he tries to roll over Fukayama's more measured comments.

Posted by Seth | August 1, 2008 8:54 PM

Oh jesus.

The basis of understanding for political activity is not and never should be a reason to start a war. What the hell is wrong with that guy?

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